3rd off layoff
 

Help me with this...but I thought I read on here last year where 5 or 6 of the last derby winners the derby was the 3rd race off a layoff. I think this is accurate as I narrowed it down the last 2 years and hit I'll Have Another and Animal Kingdom. IF you go by TRUE 3rd off layoff this year the list would be: Javas War, Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion, and Mylute. If you look closer this list could be considered 3rd off layoff depending on what you consider a layoff: Goldencents, Revolutionary, Vyjack, Frac Daddy.

I know there are a lot of history trends, but this one seems to hold some weight with me. I would enjoy hearing thoughts on this or stats to back it up. Thank you in advance!!

I think it's an incredibly overrated statistic in this context.

Where a horse is in his form cycle is just about irrelevant in a race where every horse has been trained with the goal of running their best on this one day. At this level, it's only about who's fast enough, not how many races they've had since their last horizontal line in a Racing Form.

Esp with how lightly horses are raced nowadays.

GL this weekend Joey. Bang 'em hard.

Perhaps a stronger recent angle is 2 preps as a 3YO which is by nature somewhat related.

Agree with others - this shouldn't be your only input or most significant.

I would add in racing luck as well, which is difficult to quantify.

That too. In a stampede race like the Derby, I would consider a horse progressively more likely to find trouble the further he is from the lead.