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-   -   3/28: Gulfstream (5th-10th); Santa Anita (5th-8th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50332)

Kasept 03-28-2013 07:37 AM

3/28: Gulfstream (5th-10th); Santa Anita (5th-8th)
 
Rule Number Six, that Johnny D. noted had been outposted in three straight winter starts, finally had a cozy berth in the GP 7th Wednesday and parlayed it into a 17-1 upset that ignited the multis. With a virtual free square in $3.00 Big John B, the late P4 paid $1,128, nearly twice the parlay. Pumpidu, who came into the 8th off the best last race, went mildly ignored at over 6-1 and won easily paying a generous $14.40.

With the Florida Derby card the only remaining big day of racing at Gulfstream, be aware that the second tier operations and riders are getting their money with Wednesday finding Pedro Monterrey, Manny Aguilar and bugs Hugo Sanchez (2) and JJ Gonzalez in the winner's circle.

At Aqueduct, I was blind without a cane as the first 3 legs of the late P4 went to horses I didn't consider. When Linda Rice first time starter Hay Shares took money, 9-2 from 8-1 ML, I knew I was a chicken in a pot. It got worse from there. Carryover of $18k at Aqueduct as a result of yesterday's tricky sequence, but I had looked at Santa Anita and Gulfstream already. Hope everyone did OK yesterday despite my showing New York.


GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T/36' (P6, P3, DD)

Watch the board to see if #9 Ardara (20-1) 2nd takes money. May be readying for return to Toronto but is a real curiousity in here and it is the time of season for mystery horses to find purchase..

Best Value: #2 Unavailable 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Daylight Cat 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Flower Mart 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #5 Sun Disk 6-1 7th


6th: OC/C, 4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Hierro 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Pass the Dice 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #2 Good Morning Diva 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Casual Trick 8-1 6th


7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5f-T/96' (P4, P3, DD)

FTS #1 Call Her Chelsea (Curlin) is the 2nd foal out of the nice Memorette that Bill Currin directed to a $900k career for his wife. FTS #7 Finnie Mac Cool is (Giant's Causeway) is the first foal out of the talented Baghdaria, herself a daughter of blue hen mare Oatsee (Shackleford, Lady Joanne, Afleeting Lady, et al). Clement returns #8 Victorious Won (More Than Ready) -- half to Za Approval, Revved Up, etc.) after a main track debut fiasco..

Most Likely: #8 Victorious Won 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Sizzlin Bee 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #2 Alpha Away 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Downtown Girl 6-1 7th


8th: MDN CLM ($25k), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Real cast of suspects..

Best Value: #9 Circle City 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Lasting Impact 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Raging Mane 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Blue Deep 5-1 5th


9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-T/96' (DD)

Interesting condition ALW with a number of reformed claimers involved. Very competitive..

Most Likely: #1 He's So Fine 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Kentucky Hero 20-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Zane 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Readyshakego 10-1 4th


10th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T/36' (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Reflected Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Batter Up 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Sunshine Rambler 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Mr. Espresso 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #5 Blazen 5-1 WON ($14.40)


<$40 P6 Play:

5: 2-4-5-10
6: 3-4
7: 4-8
8: 1-9
9: 1-2-6
10: 1-3-7-9

4x2x2x2x3x4 = 384 x .10 = $38.40


<$50 P5 Play:

6: 3-4
7: 4-8
8: 1-9
9: 1-2-6
10: 1-3-7-9

2x2x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-8
8: 1-4-9
9: 1-2-3-6
10: 1-3-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Egg Drop 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 Include the Cat 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Royal Tiger 7-2 5th
Super Add: #4 Saturday Nite Ride 5-2 3rd


6th: OC/C, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dubai You X Y Z 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Starspangled Heat 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Chosen Miracle 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Carbonite 4-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #7 Sweet Factory 8-1 DNF-Fell/Lost rider
Next Best: #3 Lady Rosamond 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Blushing Angel 7-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Miss American Pie 4-1 4th


8th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 English Rhythm 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #1 Sweet Baguette 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Shewhomustbeobeyed 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Cuvee Exchange 3-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #5 Cat Pirate 6-1 7th


<$40/<$20 P4 Play:

5: 2-6
6: 4-6-7
7: 1-3-7
8: 1-4

2x3x3x2 = $36 ($18 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (6/7/3/4,11) Paid $92.10 ($46.05 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

prouse62 03-28-2013 09:52 AM

GP 7th
 
Steve,

This is actually Baghdaria's 2nd foal. She dropped an AP Indy her first season that was crooked and never made it to the Racetrack.

This spot for her intrigues me. 5/8th's on the grass seems like an interesting spot and the work tab didn't exactly inspire.

Baghdaria was a really nice filly and CASA farms is a long time family friend so I've got a rooting interest today. Johnny V aboard doesn't hurt. Though the More than Ready in there looks tough.

Kasept 03-28-2013 10:10 AM

GP SCR/CHG'S

Kasept 03-28-2013 02:14 PM

Quote:

Watch the board to see if #9 Ardara (20-1) takes money. May be readying for retuirn to Toronto but is a real curiousity in here and it is the time of season for mystery horses to find purchase..
There's your answer. Horse was a real oddball in that field. Ran a big race. 25-1.

hailrazer 03-28-2013 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 921041)

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T/36' (P6, P3, DD)

Watch the board to see if #9 Ardara (20-1) takes money. May be readying for retuirn to Toronto but is a real curiousity in here and it is the time of season for mystery horses to find purchase..

Best Value: #2 Unavailable 10-1
Next Best: #4 Daylight Cat 4-1
Exotics Use: #10 Flower Mart 5-2
Super Add: #5 Sun Disk 6-1

Didn't take money but ran big. Nice tri with your other picks if you included.

Kasept 03-28-2013 02:44 PM

This may be apocryphal, but it's like clockwork that when a Pletcher Cadillac -- in this case Hierro -- fails to move into a stake try off a big comeback effort, count on it to flop in ALW company.

Kasept 03-28-2013 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hailrazer (Post 921093)
Didn't take money but ran big. Nice tri with your other picks if you included.

Sooie..

Wonder if she didn't break flatfooted, if she doesn't win...

fantini33 03-28-2013 02:49 PM

Ardara not hanging on was very costly and may be even more costly depending on the result in race 7.

Either way, thanks for the great insight on that horse......you have caused me unwitting misery.:zz:

jms62 03-28-2013 04:20 PM

Am I a bad man for betting the 4 and 6 to win in the nightcap?

Kasept 03-28-2013 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 921116)
Am I a bad man for betting the 4 and 6 to win in the nightcap?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VN29X2HCKpU

casp0555 03-29-2013 09:14 AM

great job at SA yesteerday Steve, out of pocket all day and evening, just seen the results, thanks again for your hard work and opinions :):$:


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