Derby Trail Forums - 3/1: Aqueduct ($27 C/O); Santa Anita ($227k P5 C/O)

Bad horses win bad races and leaving 4th choice Lady Jarlyn off the P4 ticket at Aqueduct cost an $800 hit when Abel Lezcano got her past the predictably vulnerable 1-2 favorite Winds of Change. That was also enough to trip a $27k carryover for Friday's playable slate. At Santa Anita, 26-1 Kessabtsi improbably wired the P5 ending/Late P4 opening 5th producing a P5 C/O of $227k and P6 jackpot of $44k. To quote Gus McCray, "So what's keeping you?"..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)

$27,110 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Funny Money 4-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ms. Starella 5-2 (B) 5th
Best Value: #3 Swift Taylor 8-1 (C) WON ($16.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Love is Key Kaz 50-1 (X) 4th

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Talent N Passion 3-5 (A) WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #7 Seven Dreams 8-1 (C) 5th
Next Best: #3 Agualinda 4-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Hoboken Honey 10-1 (X) 6th

6th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mikey Likes It 2-1 (A) 7th
Best Value: #3 Villanesca 5-1 (B) WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #6 Centrique 3-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Hot Roots 10-1 (C) 6th

7th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Race seems trickier than 3-5 on Late Starter indicates. Visionary Man is a contender back to race on Boxing Day and gets injry returnee Maragh who was aboard..

Best Value: #3 Visionary Man 10-1 (A) WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #6 Late Starter 3-5 (A) 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Burned Bridges 12-1 (B) 6th
Super Add: #5 Grandpa Len 5-1 (C) 5th

8th: NY-OC/C, 4+, 6f (DD)

Another well-matched set..

Best Value: #5 Mineswept 5-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Flying Zealous 7-2 (A) WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Verbosity 3-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #1 Won Great Classic 2-1 (B) 5th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 Gravitate 8-5 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #6 Madre Ditutticapi 5-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #2 Bounty Pink 9-5 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Southside Sis 6-1 (C) 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 5-6
5: 2
6: 1-3-6
7: 1-3-6
8: 3-5
9: 6-8

2x1x3x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-6
7: 1-3-6
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 2-5-6-8

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$226,901 P5 C/O starts here..

Top tab #2 One World a SCR..

Best Value: #6 I Run for Fun 5-1 (A) WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #3 Broadway Nika 7-2 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Valentine Boy 8-5 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #5 Sun's Out 3-1 (C) 5th

2nd: MSW, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Tweeted last night while capping that I'm interested to see 4yo Pegram homebred Caveman Keno debut here for Baffert. The Roman Ruler 4yo is a half to the owner/trainer's 3yo Governor Charlie who made his own splashy bow a fortnight ago..

Best Value: #6 Incline Village 9-2 (A) 5th
Next Best: #1 Wild Media 5-2 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Candy's Jewel 3-1 (B) 4th
Super Add: #5 Oliver's Tale 4-1 (B) WON ($15.40)

3rd: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Grand Giant 2-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #10 Dr. Spin 10-1 (A) WON ($23.00)
Next Best: #7 Wild Student 5-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Gentleman Pete 8-1 (C) 3rd

4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Top tab #6 Latin Lashes a SCR..

Mosr Likely: #9 Roll Your Eyes 7-2 (A) 7th
Next Best: #2 Rossi Reserrve 4-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Memo to Kathy 4-1 (B) WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #8 Magic Mama 5-1 (C) 3rd

5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Puff Pastry 9-5 (A) WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #2 Sidepocket Run 4-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Hanserella 4-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #4 Gia Is a Bella 8-1 (C) 5th

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-6
2: 1-6
3: 1-10
4: 2-7-9
5: 2-4-9-10

3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-5-6
3: 1-7-10
4: 2-7-9
5: 2-4-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/10/7/7,10,11) Paid $822.10

Good luck!
Steve