Derby Trail Forums - 1/1: Gulfstream Park (2nd-10th): Santa Anita ($77k C/O)

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

First notable 3yo MSW of the new year features Pletcher/Let's Go Stable El Padrino half Verrazano and sharp working Coin Broker from Romans/Gainesway..

Most Likely: #9 Verrazano 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #7 Coin Broker 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Retrieve 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Honduran 15-1 7th

3rd: Spectacular Bid, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Little Distorted 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Merit Man 6-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Brave Dave 3-1 5th

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Live Lively 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #5 Pow Wow Wow 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Oblahlah 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Coffee Clique 3-1 6th

5th: Old Hat (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Kauai Katie 3-5 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #2 Power Lady 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Cor Cor 3-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7-9
3: 1-4-5
4: 1-2-4-5-6
5: 1

3x3x5x1 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (9/1/4/1) Paid $64.70 ($32.35 for .50)

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/24' (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 New Line 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Liberal Spin 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Big Sam 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Batten the Hatches 4-1 3rd

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Bradester 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 Wild Billum 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Silverton Hill entry 10-1 6th/7th
Exotics Use: #6 Third Choice 8-1 9th

8th: Ginger Brew, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/96' (P3, DD)

Incredibly well matched girls. An utter scramble. Don't settle for short numbers exclusively. Mike Welsch said Sunday on 'Loose on the Lead' that I O Ireland, who beat G1 Starlet winner Pure Fun at KEE, has worked sharp leading up to this spot. Feels like 12 of the 14 can win..

Best Value: #7 I O Ireland 15-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Corporate Culture 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Tuttipaesi 12-1 WON ($18.00)
Super Add: #12 I'm Already Sexy 10-1 6th

9th: Gulfstream Park Derby, 3yo, 1m (DD)

Purple Egg SCRATCHED will need to stretch out an additional quarter mile, but only looked to be really running in last 16th of TAM stake score. Wondered about main track viability of ONT-bred Star Contender (Oxley/Casse) and wasn't particularly encouraged noting that second dam Hangin On a Star produced turf stakes types including Comet Shine (Broodmare sire of Dee Tee's Ausable Chasm)..

Most Likely: #5 Itsmyluckyday 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #1 Undrafted 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Star Contender 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Sr. Quisqueyano 5-2 2nd

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T/24' (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Atlantic Dream 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wine Burglar 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 E B Ryder 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Manuka Honey 4-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Lemonsrgoodongrass 12-1 3rd

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-7-12
7: 3-4
8: 1-3-6-7-12-14
9: 1-4-5-7
10: 7

3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 1-3-6-7-12-14
9: 1-4-5-7
10: 3-7-8

2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Van Brit 9-5 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #4 Elegant 3-1 (A) 6th
Best Value: #3 Bonita Star 9-2 (C) 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Cosset 5-1 (C) WON ($18.80)

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Lit de Bet 9-2 (A) 5th
Best Value: #6 Here Comes Bonnie 5-1 (B) 10th
Next Best: #9 Rossi Reserve 2-1 (B) WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Memo to Kathy 8-1 (C) 2nd

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very tough N2L set with too many similar non-descript types to suit my taste. Have not a single clever idea to offer..

Most Likely: #1 Lite That Baby Up 4-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #6 Winds of Dubai 3-1 (A) 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Pride of Silver 7-2 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #5 Ride Along 4-1 (B) WON ($14.20)

7th: Cal-MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Dangerous Cal-bred MDN race with FTS runners from big barns appearing just so-so in morning evaluations. Siding mostly with those that have been out already..

#13 (AE) Cayton 6-1 does not get in making this a bit of a quagmire..

Best Value: #9 Rockin Cowgirl 8-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #2 Sophie's Secret 3-1 (B) 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Mark of a Gem 5-1 (B) 4th
Super Add: #10 Good Party 4-1 (C) WON ($18.20)

8th: Blue Norther, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

Like the Ginger Brew above, a good group of missies. Sharp line by Jon White as top 4 ML choices are the standouts. Somethingabout her and Escape Act seem like the two other players at square prices. Escape Act (Papa Clem half sis) better be challenged by the half mile pole or she may very well be gone. Scarlet Strike, a half top Visionaire, adds blinks and might be the one to reach the pacesetter first..

Most Likely: #2 Scarlet Strike 3-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #11 Travesura 9-2 (B) 7th
Next Best: #10 Sky High Gal 7-2 (B) WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Heir Kitty 7-2 (B) 5th

"C's": #7 Escape Act 8-1; #8 Somethingabouther 15-1 (C)

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Holiday Rose 6-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #6 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #13 Sugar Spice 4-1 (B) WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #4 She's Actceptional 5-1 (B) 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-9
5: 6-9-10
6: 1-6
7: 2-3-9
8: 2
9: 6/SCR-12

2x3x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 2-3-9
8: 1-2-7-8-10-11
9: 4-6/SCR-12-13

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve