Derby Trail Forums - 12/29: Santa Anita Park (1st-9th)

Enjoyed strong opening day at Santa Anita Wednesday and despite vacation mode, couldn't resist nice card today. Hope everyone is enjoying the holidays!

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 1m (PL Pick All, P5, P3, DD)

Follow up to important HOL event that saw Flashback earn diploma and Mentor Cane show surprising early speed. Appealing Tale & Coastal Breeze exit that affair as well while big buzz player Russdiculous (O'Neill) & Star Billing half Starzilla SCR'D (Sherman) make returns. Great start to day!

Most Likely: #4 Mentor Cane 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Appealing Tale 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #6 Dr. Spin 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Russdiculous 6-1 7th

2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Over Africa 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Key Reversal 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Hodge 4-1 6th
Super Add: #3 My Last Tycoon 8-1 8th

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Medusalina 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Boller Bomb 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #12 Katy's Star 4-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Didrickson 6-1 9th

4th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Most likely: #11 Three Blondes 7-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Angel Moon 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Fabulous Fashion 6-1 DNF

5th: 9th Kalookan Queen H., F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Going for a Spin 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Teddy's Promise 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Pink Lollipops 5-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Snow Fall 8-1 2nd

<$50 P5/P4 Play:

1: 4
---------------
2: 2-6-11
3: 2-7-10-12 (Add 1-3 for deeper or backup plays)
4: 6-11
5: 1-4-5-7

1x3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: 18th Eddie Logan, 2yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Good, solid group. Gabriel Charles was one of the BC Weekend successes and holds an esge here.. but just an edge. Several of the off pace runners are within striking range but are going to have to be moved aggressively as the favorite will have first run from his stalking and pouncing position under Talamo..

Most Likely: #8 Gabriel Charles 8-5 2nd
Nexy Best: #4 One Firm Cat 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Avare 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #2 Will True Up 12-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Very well matched group. If it isn't one of the top 2 choices, it could be any of the next 6. Only Christmas Candy and Catienus Gold seem in a bit over their head and even they're not impossible. Super-quick Magical Band seems to assure an honest pace..

Most Likely: #4 Dress the Part 3-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Tiz the Tide 3-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Quizzical 8-1 WON ($26.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Conkate 15-1 5th

8th: 9th Daytona (G3), 3+, 6.5f-OFF THE TURF (DD)

Terrific edition of this. Lots of hard hitters and no shortage of value options. Wilkinson (6-1) to Mullins a heads up trainer switch and cutback types excel over this quirky course..

Most Likely: #3 Comma to the Top 9-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #11 Ain't No Other 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Wilkinson 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Capital Account 5-1 4th

9th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Yeesh.. Not the easiest way to end sequence with big cast of cheap in/out types. Old friend Scofield Barracks drops to lowest level ever in search of first '12 win. Hidden Blessing is the most consistent option and other than the Los Al invader, is only true speed..

Most Likely: #3 Hidden Blessing 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Scofield Barracks 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Half Dome Dude 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Jeffery's Groove 8-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Dance With Gable 5-1 9th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-8
7: 4-5-9
8: 3-7-10-11
9: 3-6-8-9

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve