Best BC Classic future prices from several racebooks
 

Here are the best odds I could find from the 4 racebooks I checked:

Bernardini 2.2 Gameday
Lava Man 7.05 Greek
Invasor 7.05 Greek
Shirocco 11.74 Pinny
David Junior 16.39 Pinny
Sun King 20 Gameday
Lawyer Ron 30.5 Greek
Dylan Thomas 17.7 Pinny
Perfect Drift 50 Gameday
Giacomo 50 Pinny
Suave 50.5 Greek
Second Of June 30.5 Greek
Point Determined 60.5 Greek
Brother Derek 43.41 Pinny
Super Frolic 50.5 Greek
Strong Contender 26.33 Pinny
Bright One 35.73 Pinny
Flower Alley 50 Gameday, Pinny
Jazil 32.5 Greek
Bright One 25 Gameday
Seek Gold 40 Gameday
Cindago 40 Gameday

There are probably some gems in there, because taken together the odds make a line with 15% takeout. That's comparable to raceday. Of course, there are almost certainly some horses that will start in the Classic but are not on that list (and many on the list will not start in the Classic). But unless you think a horse not on the list will have a significant chance to win, the 15% takeout means that betting the futures has comparable "overhead" to betting on raceday.

If you think the winner will very likely be one of the "Big 3", then betting all 3 should have value. If the actual (combined) chance of the winner coming from one of those 3 is greater than 56%, you'd have a good bet.

--Dunbar

I wonder what Flower Alley was 3 months ago when he was already crowned Horse of the Year from some around here?

Strong Contender looks like the long shot with a good chance if he improves off his last race. I really liked the way he looked before and during the race.

Anybody know what Beyer gave Strong Contender's run in the Super Derby?

Anybody know what Beyer gave Strong Contender's run in the Super Derby?

106

I have not been a big fan of Strong contender, but you need to include him as a Strong contender for the Classic.

Has Jazil even worked since going to the sidelines? I wouldn't take 400-1 on him. Bright One's stakes win was in W. Virginia so he better be 75-1 for me. Dylan Thomas and Schirrocco are unproven on dirt and also would need to be far higher for me to bite. I'm no fan of G2 level 3yo's moving up into G1 company vs. older but if Strong Contender is truly developing into the horse many thought he could be...hmmm. Three year olds have done OK in the Classic. Often the "big name 3yo" gets beaten in the Classic by a lesser light. Consider proud Truth, Concern, Cat Thief and Tiznow. Even Unbridled had gone winless since the Derby and was looking like a flukey Derby winner by late fall.

Jazil hasn't posted a work since returning to McLaughlin's barn about 2 weeks ago.

You'll get to see Dylan Thomas over the dirt in two weeks, but you may also see those odds drop terribly low. :p

I heard back in August when he was out at Shadwell that there was no way they were going to run him in the Classic. Things can change, but I'd say the odds of Jazil running in the Classic are very slim.

Interestingly, TheGreek has upped its BC Classic future odds on Bernardini and Invasor. They now have:

Bernardini 2.25-1
Invasor 7.45-1

It's odd that TheGreek's odds on Bernardini would rise while the odds at Pinnacle have dropped to 1.72-1.

--Dunbar

I just won't get it if Shirocco goes to dirt.