11/3 (SA): Breeders' Cup (Day 2)
 

Interesting first day of the Cup with bankroll building success in the ALW troika early, before some fits and starts in the Cup events leaked away the gains. Royal Delta's performance overwhelmed all viewers.. a tour-de-force Distaff win that puts her in position to become the 4th straight fair sex horse of the year pending Saturday's outcomes. Rides and pilot decision in traffic impacted outcomes notably Friday and as nice a job as Mike Smith did on Royal Delta, his performance on Atigun in the Marathon was stupefying. After the race was virtually ceded to Merit Man with scratches of Super Ninety Nine and South Floyd, Pat Valenzuela failed to utilize Merit Man's speed in the Juvenile Sprint which opened the door for the upset by Hightail.

The Juvy Filly Turf and F&M Turf were utter mayhem and Christophe Lemaire on Flotilla and Javy Castellano on Zagora put themselves in the best positions to win. In the race for elders, Lemaire was less heady on Ridasiyna while Bill Buick and The Fugue were flummoxed endlessly inside a bubble of horseflesh. In the 2yo event, Sky Lantern and Richard Hughes previewed The Fugue's dilemma, bottled up until it was too late. Beholder, who went surprisingly underbet, did exactly what we discussed on ATR Friday, hamstringing the Juvy Filly field into submission.

Good day overall with the Distaff living up to its' advance. Hope everyone did well. A dozen exciting opportunities await!


SANTA ANITA -- BREEDERS' CUP DAY TWO


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: BC Juvenile Filly Sprint Preview, 2yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Bares Tripper 9-5 4th
Next Best: #4 Unusual Way 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Truly Marie 5-2 3rd


2nd: BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Utter crapshoot as there's nothing to separate these juvies. Swing wildly. Gabriel Charles should appreciate the cut back. Avare gets Ramon and worked on par with Friday return winner Basmati. Moulin de Mougin is out of downhill wonder Cambiocorsa and broke his maiden on the course, as did One Firm Cat..

Best Value: #5 Gabriel Charles 20-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #2 Upward Spiral 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Moulin de Mougin 6-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Mico Margarita 8-1 3rd


3rd: Damascus, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Mile High Magic 2-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Sir Bond 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Brother Francis 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Politicalycorrect 5-2 WON ($8.80)


4th: BC Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Based on Friday's tumultuous Filly version, trip will be everything in another bulky field. Euros Dundonnell and Artigiano drew well and appear to have possible class edge on solid if unremarkable domestic lot..

Most Likely: #6 Dundonnell 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Gervinho 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Artigiano 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Noble Tune 6-1 2nd
.50 Tri/.10 Super: #13 Know More 8-1 12th


5th: BC F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Someone will need to readily improve while Groupie Doll missteps for an upset here. Dust and Diamonds has a pace edge going in, but Groupie Doll can do what is necessary with her reserved tactical speed to address that scenario..

Most Likely: #9 Groupie Doll 1-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #1 Teddy's Promise 20-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Dust and Diamonds 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Musical Romance 4-1 6th
.50 Tri/.10 Super: #6 Turbulent Descent 5-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

1: 1-3-4
2: 2-5-7
3: 4-7
4: 2-4-5-6-9-13
5: 9

3x3x2x6x1 = 108 x .50 = $54


6th: BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

No shortage of pace lining up here but no glaringly embraceable off-pace ideas either..

Most Likely: #6 Shackleford 2-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Delegation 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Emcee 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 John Scott 12-1 4th
.50 Tri/.10 Super: #1 Rail Trip 10-1 2nd


7th: BC Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

No matter how you are playing this race, (vertically or horizontally), you'll need to use a few to build plays or get through..

Most Likely: #13 Unbridled's Note 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Reneesgotzip 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Tale of a Champion 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Corporate Jungle 6-1 6th
.50 Tri/.10 Super: #6 Upgrade 30-1 9th


<$100 P4 Play:

4: 2-4-6-9
5: 9
6: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
7: 2-4-6-7-9-10-13

4x1x7x7 = 196 x .50 = $98


8th: BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Baffert pair starts conversation and may end it. There are colts in range of the those 2, but it's hard to see which jumps into the picture. Capo Bastone was left with too much to do in the FrontRunner and adds rider that may be able to better adjust to scenario as it develops..

Most Likely: #9 Power Broker 5-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Capo Bastone 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Title Contender 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Dynamic Sky 12-1 6th
.50 Tri/.10 Super: #8 Fortify 9-2 4th


9th: BC Turf, 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Trailblazer apparently kicked a stall wall Friday and will need to be checked in the morning to make sure he's OK. After the Japanese 5yo, the Euros, defending winner St. Nicholas Abbey and Shareta, stand out. Point of Entry, like Wise Dan in the Mile, has a surface plus in his corner given the way the Santa Anita lawn plays with those near the front having a decided advantage over closers..

Most Likely: #3 St. Nicholas Abbey 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Shareta 7-2 5th
Best Value: #12 Trailblazer 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Point of Entry 3-1 2nd


10th: BC Sprint, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

This is a complete and total scramble and a slightly unusual version given the smallish number of dashers lined up that gun from the bell. As crazy as it seems coming off a year layoff, Fast Bullet is crawling out of his skin and may simply overwhelm this group if as good as he's looked in the mornings. The ML (12-1) starts the bidding attractively. Gantry (10-1) will be lost on the board, but his Smile Sprint effort would win here. After those two, the local crowd of SA Sprint Ch. runners (Coil, Capital Account, Jimmy Creed and defending winner Amazombie) all demand respect and inclusion..

Best Value: #6 Fast Bullet 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Gantry 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Amazombie 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Jimmy Creed 6-1 9th
.50 P3/.10 Super: #8 Capital Account 8-1 12th; #4 Coil 5-1 7th


11th: BC Mile, 3+, 12f-T (DD)

As in the Turf, the Euros (Excelebration & Moonlight Cloud) are serious horses on the International scene for all the reasons discussed all week. Wise Dan has met or exceeded expectation all year and his explosive finish should work even better here than it has at Saratoga, Woodbine and Keeneland recently. Obviously is no doorknob and will be alone on the lead. Mr. Commons has been lurking in race after race all season. Willcox Inn will be motoring late and is ideal for the bottom of your supers. Animal Kingdom tries this gambit, but I can't see him for anything more than a minor award..

Most Likely: #2 Wise Dan 9-5 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #9 Moonlight Cloud 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Excelebration 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Obviously 6-1 3rd
.50 Tri/.10 Super: #7 Willcox Inn 30-1 9th


12th: BC Classic, 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

As with Royal Delta Friday, Game On Dude comes in as the clear horse to beat and he will likely have to do exactly what she did to win: turn back waves of challengers. Couldn't be doing better. Flat Out, Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man, To Honor and Serve and Nonios comprise the phalanx of up close pursuers with Flat Out the most likely of the alternatives to capture honors..

Most Likely: #5 Game On Dude 9-5 7th
Next Best: #2 Flat Out 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fort Larned 5-1 WON ($20.80)
Best Value: #8 Nonios 20-1 6th
Super Hi-5: #12 To Honor and Serve 8-1 10th


<$200 P6 Play:

7: 7-13
8: 9
9: 3-5
10: 3-6-11
11: 2-6-9
12: 2-5

2x1x2x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-5-12
10: 2-3-6-11
11: 2-6-9
12: 2-4-5

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

BC SCR/CHG'S

Race 2: Scratch #9 Jump For Kitten, #11 Avare, #13 Under Review, #14 Dancin Upside Down
Race 4: Scratch #15 Rising Legend
Race 7: Scratch #15 Global Power, #16 Star Spangled Heat

Thanks Steve... Good luck today.

Gabriel Charles 20-1

opens at 6/5

And romps at 9/2
Someone is going to the bank

Thanks Seth.. My pleasure. BOL to you and everybody thru the main events!

Hopefully those using the above guide!

:tro:

Glad you keep saying that this weekend doesn't define someone's ability as a handicapper. Otherwise I would just say that I stink.

Hell, I've stunk all this year.

Baffert's horses sure stunk today. So much for the hometown advantage

I was live to the 5,10,11 in the Classic on both pk3 & pk4. Today 6 races with exb & tris where I had 1st/3rd or 2nd,3rd,4th.

Steve, just want to give you and entire DT/ATR team a monsterous thank you for this year's BC coverage. I spent several hours listening to podcasts on Wed/Thurs and caught Fri show live.

Nick Luck personally delivered Flotilla and Grandeur with his comments. He is very knowledgeable, engaging, entertaining gentleman. His interaction with Little Andy was outstanding. Andy seemed grumpy. I get annoyed after every hurricane here in Louisiana, too.

The 'Odd Couple' pairing that was fantastic was Peter Lurie and Nick Tammaro. I know Nick from past few Super Derbys and online discussions. Another knowledgeable, engaging handicapper who provides value covering NYRA, Louisiana, and, now, SoCal circuits. Peter floored me with, "Nic-kee, boo-bee" line.

Frank Mirahmadi really brought professionalism back to Oaklawn race announcing in 2012. Terry Wallace is very nice guy. Met him briefly at this year's Super Derby. However, Frank brings excitement back to race calling in Land of Opportunity.

Finally, as you urged again this year I kept plugging on both days. Squeezed small profit on Friday. Was 0 for 6 through first 6 races yesterday. Then, boom Trinniberg-Wise Dan-Fort Larned series made my weekend. Again, super coverage!

And as always, we Louisiana DTers would welcome you for Delta Jackpot, any FG weekend, or Super Derby. Vinton is only 13 days away!

I second Dylbert's post Steve - i live in Cajunland not far from EvD.
Really enjoy ATR but especially this week.

Tough one for LSU last night :(

dyl, Conrad..

Thanks very, very much.. Was a fast, intense week at Santa Anita and I tried to get as much insight out during the 15 hours without making it confusing. I thought it was a particularly strong Cup Week for ATR given the number of opinions offered that yielded returns...

Nick Luck with Flotilla & Grandeur. Rick Hammerle pushed Trinniberg. Mike Welsch offered Calidoscopio. Dave Grening stressed and was only interested in Fort Larned and Andy Serling said that his best chance was to be allowed to roll up front. Rich Migliore focused on Reneesgotzip and experienced SA 6.5f runners for the Turf Sprint and she ran big while perfect down the hill tunners were 1-2! There's more that I'm not thinking of... I struggled in most of the Cup races but had good lead-in results both days and the 'lone mount' theory that saw Aaron Gryder, Willie Martinez and Brian Hernandez succeed.

Hope everyone enjoyed the coverage and the racing and did well. It was a wonderful 8 days out there. Big 3 day recap on tap starting in an hour..

So you defeased losses on the rest of the card.. Always another race going off somewhere.. Nothing like earning at the track