Derby Trail Forums - 9/27: Belmont Park ($26k C/O; G1 Lonesome Glory)

Nice day of racing Wednesday at Belmont ended frustratingly as I missed $1,040 P4 having left 4th choice Serpe winner off the play. Miscue was made more at the top as I was mistakenly concerned that Goldberg layoff returnee Hermosura could come back running. White Sangria was well worth singling which not only allows Fly Ride to make it aboard, but lowers the ducat price to $50. Arrgh.

The rest of the day was rather formful with a couple of Chad Brown MSW winners notable including the good debut effort of Trinniberg full sister Ostourah. The filly drew off from what felt like a decent group as concerns regarding her bow coming on the lawn proved unfounded. Later, Guilt Trip outgamed 'first time Mike Mariena' Tuckers Point at the wire after a mile-long duel that saw the pair earn solid 84 Beyers.

The late double with $14 Forever Vow and $24 Fly Ride tripped a carryover into Thursday of $26k. Those 6 races and a look at the Steeplechase early double which features the NSA-G1 Lonesome Glory below..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Wm. Entenmann Mem. Hurdle, 4+, 18f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD)

Fair amount of speed signed on here..

Most Likely: #8 Gustavian 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #10 Forgotten Man 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Fisher entry 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Ebanour 15-1 5th

2nd: Lonesome Glory Hurdle S. (NSA G1), 4+, 20f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD)

Voss & Left Unsaid overdue for one of these..

Most Likely: #8 Left Unsaid 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Late SCR
Best Value: #1e Naylor entry 5-1 3rd/8th/9th
Exotics Use: #6 History Boy 3-1 5th
SCR Add: #2b (POE) Spy in the Sky 12-1 2nd

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$26k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Lobshot 2-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Donnatale 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 World Premier 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Centrique 7-2 WON ($6.90)

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Wide open event with more than half the field eligible for the win and virtually all possible for an appearance in the super. A lot depends on your opinion of Yankee Fortune who continues to drop like a pearl in Prell..

Most Likely: #3 Dugan 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Quick Recovery 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Yankee Fortune 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Recharged 6-1 8th

7th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Would appear it's time for Sightseek son Night Site (1a) to break his maiden, though Mott may opt for Input (1) who is equally eligible..

Most Likely: #1a Night Site 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Fact 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Candy Feat 8-1 WON ($20.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Lure of the South 15-1 5th

8th: MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 In Speight Ofitall 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wally Did It 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Lasso 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Relentless Road 12-1 10th

.10 SUPER: 3 with 1-5-8-9 with 1-5-8-9 with All (1x4x3x8 = 96 x .10 = $9.60

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Rangey 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shootdeworx 3-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Springcourt 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Ambit 6-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Brutal end to the sequences with hyper-competitive older fillies & mares going the quirky 7f. Interesting that Fava, from lethal litigator Roy Lerman, exits Tampa March race that gained above-noted Forever Vow her diploma..

Most Likely: #6 Seductress 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Fava 15-1 WON ($33.00)
Next Best: #3 Highland Dancer 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Vicola 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Richbelle 8-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-5
6: 3-4-7
7: 1-2
8: 3
9: 1-2-7
10: 5-6

2x3x2x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 1-3-5
9: 1-2-7
10: 3-5-6-7-12

2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

Good luck!
Steve