PID
 

The meet only has 7 racing days left.

I know a lot of people hate when you mention yourself like this -- but I've been on an amazing streak here with newspaper picks.

After todays 4th race -- my Best Bet of the day has now won 10 straight and 14 out of the last 18.

In order, they have paid:

$3.80 (4/1 morning line)
$3.20
$9.00 (6/1 morning line)
$3.80
$4.00
$3.00
$5.80
$7.40
$6.80
$7.40


More importantly than a crazy streak like that -- is getting value.




Today's 1st race:



Top pick Cry Vengeance won at 17/1 odds and paid $36.80 and the cold 5-1 exacta paid $124.60

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120920&RN=1


Yesterday, 5 out of 8 top pick winners, including a 14/1 winner.

Masters Stakes Day: the Best Bet won and paid $6.80. The Best Value won and paid $14.60 and the cold exacta paid $104.20




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120908&RN=8


Anyway, posting this never does you any good, but I take the job very seriously and very personally, and have been hyper competitive to do the best I can here. And I'm just on a cycle here where I've been crazy hot of late.

Yes, there are 0-for-8 days and cold streaks and cycles of below par results -- and I guess thankfully I'm invisible outside of Erie when they do come.

Outstanding, Sir. Huge congrats!

So, counting only your best bets, you won 10 in a row. Congrats.

Winning 10 in a row or losing 1000 in a row -- tell me again which one's harder?

You know what they say......self praise is no praise at all.

Great work Doug. Can you post your picks here for the remaining days of the meet? It will be fun to follow along.

Paul

Impressive. Nice job Doug.

I need an agent I guess.

Great Job!!!

Thanks. It's a good feeling clinching up another profitable year here like this -- even if it is at a place that's not on the major racing landscape.

Of this freaky streak of 'Best Bet' winners -- mostly all of them have been standout horses on CJ's figures and often with other factors in there favor.

For instance, maybe an important trainer change or big edge on the way the race dynamics look, or the standout figure came despite a tough trip.

Some of the upset winners have been by more esoteric means.


Here's the form for Cry Vengence today:



This was just a straight-forward pedigree play...the kind I VERY rarely make.

A. P. Indy was the grandsire and A. P Indy's half sibling Summer Squall the dam sire.

In a nutshell, the horse had 10 furlong breeding -- and was stretching out to a route from races at 4.5 furlongs and 5.5 furlongs.

No A. P. Indy offspring has ever won a race at 6 furlongs or less at Saratoga. Someone made a big deal to me how Dreaming of Julia (out of Dream Rush) won her debut big going 6.5 furlongs and how she would have broke that crazy skid and all that. Probably true, but didn't she look a whole lot better when she was stretched out to a mile and won a stake race by 16+ lengths second out?

I might not have picked Cry Vengance today if I didn't have negative opinions on the two favorites.

The even money favorite was a Kitten's Joy first-time starter for Mike Maker -- who I hate with debuters.

This horse was the 2nd choice on the ML:



It wasn't bet well at PID in its debut despite having Dominguez up and being a half sibling to two-time Eclipse champion Lookin At Lucky and Kensei. Also, it didn't run much of a figure on CJ's or anyone elses figures for that matter.

If you're debuting at PID with Ramon Dominguez up, and you're a half to Lookin At Lucky and Kensei, you're probably going to be bet hard if you can actually run.

Anyway, a lot of this stuff isn't so PID specific or PID specialist.

Considering when I try and watch Andy and all I get is "buffering" (not your fault Andy) that is quite quite well noteworthy :tro:

Keep it up Drugs!

Andy's obviously a great handicapper and great TV analyst. He'd be one of the four people I'd put on my Mount Rushmore in terms of the people I've learned the most from about handicapping.

Agreed no disrespect meant to Andy - your insights into this sh*t and handicapping angles always make me ponder and realize I am more of a gambler than a handicapper.

:tro:

Sure, I was debating between Sweet Energy in Race #4 and Canaveral Ride in Race #7.

Ended up going with Canaveral Ride as my Best Bet.

Doug, who is the on air/in house handicapper at PID? Any chances of you getting the gig?

Ron and Katie.

Ron was a hard luck jocks agent at Turfway Park for a while -- One time PID leading rider Miguel Mena's agent Steve Elzey got him the job. He also is the race caller.

Katie is tall and a pretty face. NBC used her last year. She covered the Blue Grass with Mike Bettaglia.

I was offered a job as a paddock analyst and like a 3rd member by PID's former boss Richard Knight on opening day of the 2nd season. Kind of like a Maggie Wolfendale type role the way he explained it ... I turned it down and was kind of annoyed about it.

Mr. Knight allowed me to interview for a job as director of racing development (a title I made up) -- I spent about an hour telling him all of the things I wanted to do -- and I think he and his director of racing both got a bad headache from listening to my onslaught of a presentation. He didn't hire me for it and I never asked to be interviewed again.

That's really a shame, they are missing out on some great stuff. Hard not to think that you won't have another opportunity somewhere down the road.

Tell that to his sock

Great job Doug. Did you ever look into having your picks put on the erie.com website? It would draw hits to the website. Rich Eng says his picks are the most downloaded page in the Vegas paper. This would probably be true for your picks if they actually would run them.

I'm not sure they realize that. They put it right next to the Betting Point Spreads in the Sports Section but don't seem to make it available online.

It's tough to get horse racing coverage here. They had the PI Mile (which Wise Dan won last year) and the Masters (which the eventual Breeders Cup Filly and mare Sprint winner has won 3 years in a row) -- and high school football and pro football dominates the ink and puts in near the back pages.

Three different NFL teams are within 2 hours and get covered -- and high school football is the biggest thing around here.

Ahhh, the old Jamie Ness factor. Probably won't get much of a price but this should keep the streak alive.

Thanks for sharing.

Paul