Derby Trail Forums - 9/15: Belmont Park ($37k C/O)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$37k C/O starts here..

As Mike Welsch suggested, A.P. Indy-Round Pond son Long River will likely need more ground. 7-5 Nevada horse to beat but liked the way Welsch talked about C. Brown's Normandy Invasion (6-1)..

Most Likely: #2 Nevada 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #10 Normandy Invasion 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Tiz for Tat 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Mudflats 12-1 4th

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Handful of candidates including live first time turf Melissa Song whose dam Mrs. Debbie M was plenty effective on the lawn and is additionally in receipt of 7# edge via Wilmer Garcia. Question comes down to how many you can afford to use in the multis..

Best Value: #5 Late SCR
Next Best: #12 Exclusive Sarah 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Going Going Gone 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Pegasus Diamond 8-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Tremendous set that could easily qualify as a stake with many fast ones signed on for the $75k satch. Graydar has potential to be special and worked spectacularly upstate according to Welsch. Sir Bond goes first time Asmussen and broke maiden for Howard like he could be something nice. The Phipps' Reload is rock solid for Shug but ran into red hot Rigby at the Spa. Winner of 3 straight, Saratoga Snacks is fastest coming in and stretches out while testing open company for Sciacca and Bill Parcells. Chief Energy (20-1) is intriguing addition to the cast that could invade the board and spur big exotics. As good or better than the stakes that follow..

Most Likely: #11 Graydar 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Saratoga Snacks 5-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #6 Reload 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Sir Bond 8-1 2nd

8th: 25th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dealbata 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Julie's Love 7-2 9th
Best Value: #6 Naples Bay 6-1 WON ($28.00)
Exotics Use: #1 La Cloche 10-1 6th

9th: 34th Garden City (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Samitar 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #2 Open Water 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Somali Lemonade 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Ciao Bella 10-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m

Most Likely: #7 Da Vinci 5-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Acadian Blues 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Springcourt 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Rockstar Life 12-1 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2
6: 5-12
7: 11
8: 5-6-7
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-2-7

1x2x1x3x4x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8-11
8: 5-6-7
9: 1-2-3-4-5-7
10: 1-2-7-8

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve