Derby Trail Forums - 8/1: Saratoga (Day 11; $239k C/O)

Difficult sequences continue to confound P6 players at the Spa and a double carryover of $239k starts Week 3. First quarter of the meet closed out on a decided uptick after a big Sunday was followed by a strong late rally Monday that hooked $12.00 Notmyfirstime and $48.60 Countknickerbocker. The 23-1 on Carl Domino's nightcap winner was gleefully welcome having identified the 15-1 ML gelding as a player that was utilizing a sneaky $25k open MCLM to NY-MSW ruse. The move from bug Ortiz to Leparoux was pretty telling of Domino's intent as well and the win tote and $247.50 double ($2) pushed the bankroll into the black for the first time.

Notmyfirstime, Zollars-Asmussen winner in the 9th, was an interesting study too being a horse that looked like he was on the improve in against some that had been treading NY-ALW water and others running for the tag. Monday demonstrated that you can not let lack of success in stretches deter your confidence or inhibit your play. I missed everything I tried in the 5th-7th and though I didn't hit the monstrous $560 triple that was within in the picks in the 8th, the fact that I had Rosa Salvaje included in the tabs gave me confidence to play on into the late pair. When top choice Notmyfirstime won the 9th, I was in good spirits live to 6 horses in the double and pressed on Domino with a nice win plunge at the bonus overlay tote of 23-1.

Hope everyone did well and are set for another set of big opportunities as Whitney Week kicks off with a challenging sextet that should blow by the $1,000,000 mark. It's a challenging meet with big, competitive fields. Don't get frustrated. Your hits will come!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Rare Empire invader Ben Feliciano Jr. shows up with CNL claim Quite a Dude (6-1) and sports a 5/0-3-0 record in NY the last 5 years. (3/0-3-0 in non-stakes)..

Most Likely: #4 One Note Samba 2-1 DNF
Best Value: #8 Count Catamount 10-1 WON ($27.60)
Next Best: #9 Quite a Dude 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Glacier Bay 12-1 2nd

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lucky My Way 7-5 6th
Next Best: #2 Cypress Isle 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Flashy in Pink 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Shiela's Gold 20-1 5th

3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

If you single Lucky My Way, you may need 6 or 7 here to get through..

Best Value: #3 Flip the Switch 8-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Scat's Lassie 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Akira 9-2 2nd-DH
Super Add: #2 Sparks Will Fly 15-1 9th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Gnostic 3-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Bundestag 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Back Room Deal 5-2 5th
Super Add: #9 Mr Algebra 12-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$239k P6 C/O starts here..

Average budgets will likely try to get by with Pletcher's first Corail and Goldberg 2nd timer Girluphigh. If you have a deeper pocket, Liquid Lunch adds Lasix for her 2nd start and was on the rail in her debut..

Most Likely: #3 Corail 9-5 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #4 Girluphigh 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Liquid Lunch 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Dixiluna 10-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 5 (2)
3: 2-3-5-11
4: 1-7-9-10
5: 3-4-7

Main (#5 in 2nd): 1x4x4x3 = $48
Backup (#2 in 2nd): 1x4x4x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

As always, these state bred turf routes are fertive soil for big exotics. Ambersand is solid, consistant and well drawn, but as discussed on ATR Tuesday, there are at least a half dozen poised to upset. Terrific race and there is virtually no combination that isn't viable..

Most Likely: #3 Ambersand 2-1 4th
Best Value: #9 So Scott 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Gimme Credit 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Modern Child 5-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

These can be very slippery. Remember back to the May 18 carryover at Belmont and the suggestion that 0/42 City Vice may have found an interesting spot to break her maiden? Look who's involved in a big pool opp again. Takes the kind of drop that produces hop..

Most Likely: #5 Simple Exchange 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Red Code 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Princess Malia 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 City Vice 12-1 6th

.10 SUPER: 3-5 with 3-4-5-6 with 3-4-5-6-10 with ALL (2x3x3x6 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)

8th: Fleet Indian-NY, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Risky Rachel 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Opus A 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Miss Valentine 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lady On the Run 6-1 6th

9th: 9th John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Obviously Saginaw's best is tough to top here, but is he ready for his best after ill-advised Met try? Worktab certainly doesn't inspire confidence. Bandbox should sit a nice stalking trip..

Most Likely: #3 Bandbox 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Dr Disco 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Fiddlers Afleet 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Saginaw 8-5 WON ($7.30)

10th: CLM, 3+, 9f

Difficult end to the sequence. Lots of droppers to decipher..

Most Likely: #6 Money in Motion 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Dan and Shiela 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Spielberg 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Prince Arion 4-1 8th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-7
6: 3-9
7: 3-5
8: 7
9: 3-4-5
10: 6-10

3x2x2x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-6
8: 3-7-8
9: 1-3-4-5
10: 3-6-7-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve