Derby Trail Forums - 7/30: Saratoga ($66k C/O; Day 10)

With a return to better conditions, caught a big wave Sunday that did wonders for the spirit and leveled the bankroll. The sustained boost came mid-card on the strength of McPeek's Flashy American and Aquilino's Majestic Raffy and ran through Alaura Michelle's upset in the Nani Rose and Currency Swap's Amsterdam score. Flashy American ($20.20) tripped a $128 triple and helped set the table for big multi-race returns when Joe Aquilino's Majestic Raffy came back on 6 days rest to take the the 7th at 17-1. The $36.00 tote tipped a $116 double on the shoulders of 7# bug Wilmer Garcia who delivered an ultra-professional ride on the NY-bred who is an easy horse for which to root.

Parbhoo's West Rim came through as the favorite in the 8th for a $433 P3 that erased the losses of Saturday and Alaura Michele's $15.60 surprise in the Sweepstakes landed a tremendous $862 troika that brought the wallet all the way back and more from a sluggish start to the meet's first 8 days. Favored Currency Swap fought doggedly past Doctor Chit in the Amsterdam for Klaravich and Pompey and ended the burst with a $142.50 P3. Weaver upset the nightcap with $30.60 MTO Junior Officer and though I wasn't happy that a sizeable P4 had slipped away, it was still a terrific and welcome day. Hope everybody got something and did well. $66k carryover on the Monday card!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$66k P6 carryover starts here..

Best Value: #4 Jane of All Trades 6-1: Half to Mamma Kimbo bred to like lawn.. 3rd
Next Best: #5 Apple Cider 5-2: 2nd timer from Clement deserving fave.. 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Priscilla Mare 3-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Smittenwithkitten 8-1 2nd

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Original Art 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Smart Farda 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Backdown 10-1 6th
Super Add: #14 Flagsup 8-1 7th

7th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Federation is clear horse to beat, but the 2-4-7-9 are all within striking distance..

Most Likely: #1 Federation 9-5 4th
Best Value: #2 Prize Catch 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Vivo Per Lei 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Sure Route 15-1 7th

8th: 1st Shakespeare Caress, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Plenty of speed and faves are fittingly stalkers. If Kid Kate can stand up on the grass at all, (she's 0 for 1 on it), then she's interesting at a decent price..

Most Likely: #6 Well Deserved 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Zermatt 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Holiday for Kitten 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Rosa Salvaje 10-1 WON ($41.40)

9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Fly in the ointment of the P6 sequence with seemingly 8 of the 12 betting interests (there's a Flying Zee entry involved) eligible for laurels. Pick and pray..

Best Value: #6 Notmyfirstime 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #9 Readytodefer 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1e Flying Zee entry 7-2 7th/9th
Super Add: #10 Overextended 12-1 6th

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T

You'll need to employ some guesswork here with 3-4-5-8-9-10 the half of the field to focus on and 2-6 co-starring as potential pricey interlopers. I'm inclined to think pace runner Big Guy stays on, but Rice's Lakota Freud should get a stalking comfort zone. Weaver is firing on all cylinders and has drilled Sunshawn 6 times since June debut. Dreamsgonewild and Verde Mont are in form cycle and crafty Domino returns Countknickerbocker to MSW company while reaching for Leparoux. Tough, tough calls..

Most Likely: #4 Big Guy 5-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Sunshawn 6-1 -
Next Best: #10 Lakota Freud 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #6 Countknickerbocker 15-1 WON ($48.60)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-5
6: 4-5
7: 1
8: 2-6
9: 6-9
10: 4-9-10

3x2x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

@$50 P4 Play:

7: 1
8: 2-5-6
9: 1-3-6-8-9-10
10: 3-4-5-6-9-10

1x3x6x6 = 108 x .50 = $54

Good luck!
Steve