Derby Trail Forums - 7/29: Saratoga (Day 9; Amsterdam)

Thoroughly arduous day Saturday as heavy, gloppy track early gave way to slopfest that dashed every attempt I made to rally. I had trouble even including a winner as every short price I went against won ($5.10 Raison d'Etat, $5.40 Charmin Kitten, $11.60 El Cuadro, $6.20) and one clever notion with 20-1 Prince Silver proved futile, beaten a length by 37-1 Our Edge. Wire to wire winners in the goo and on yielding grass become common in the conditions we saw Saturday, as fields string out and it becomes difficult to rally. In the 7th for example, Assateague ($28.40) led Kitty Wine and Pianist around the inner turf in a merry-go-round affair and there was no catching Sublte in the turf dash 8th. Starlight's 2yo winner Lawn Man blitzed the MSW 3rd gate to wire as well to boost Pletcher-Castellano through a double after Charming Kitten won the 2nd from up close.

Winter Memories made the Diana special with an outstanding effort, in fact a career best. Closer to the action than usual early, the popular grey miss avoided any trouble before taking control and holding sway under Castellano who needed to keep her to task once in front. Gawking at the Spa grandstand and swishing her tale about goofily, Castellano gave her a swat as Leparoux and Dream Peace started to come calling. The race lifted the spirits of the soggy crowd and certainly pleased Jimmy Toner who literally had forgotton his way to the Trustee's Room for champagne after the race.

Alpha gave Godolphin and Kiaran McLaughlin their second Saturday stake score in 2 weeks as Ramon Dominguez took control early with the Bernardini bay and was truly never threatened. Neck 'n Neck tried the winner at the eighth pole but could only chase thereafter to be a good second while Liaison overcame a torpid break to rally for third. Depending on the Haskell outcome and along with Street Life out of Friday's Curlin, the Travers should see a contentious and good-sized group of sophs in 4 weeks.

6th and 11th are OFF The turf today at the Spa, leaving the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th on a likely yielding lawn. Main track should be muddy to start and could improve as the afternoon progresses. Here's hoping we get back to to fast and firm Monday as the off going Friday and Saturday has made already challenging events even more difficult or chaotic.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Nothing clever here..

Most Likely: #2 Zivo 3-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #1 Piscesbymoonlight 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Dehere of the Cat 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Live for Today 5-2 2nd

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Can't Catch Me Now 8-1: Like Now sib; Gullo plus 2nd start.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Awesome Weekend 8-5: Deserving fave, but 8-5? WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Comandante 3-1: Dam was fast sprint stake winner.. 2nd
Super Add: #4 Thingamajigger 5-1 4th

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Primal Baby 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Smarty Bull 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Landing My Way 7-2 3rd

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fun group of damsels going quite long on the lawn. Plenty of pedigree and connection interest including Fipke's Perfect Forever (Perfect Soul) out of Lemons Forever; Why Not More (Indian Charlie) from Sheppard, a full to Why Tonto; Opalite (Quiet American) from Donk, a half to Kid Grindstone. All but Dixie Rocks appear capable..

Most Likely: #3 Riolama 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #4 Vacationing 4-1 4th
Best Value: #11 Dixie in Pink 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Let the Kitten Run 4-1 8th

5th: NY-MSN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Anchovy 2-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Simple Rules 5-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Sim Sala Bim 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Fruttidimare 4-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-8
3: 1-4-5
4: 1-3-4-8-9-11
5: 1-5

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

You will need to re-examine this group after SCR's. More than a few turfers that stay in could be fine on a wet track..

Most Likely: #4 Raquel 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Flashy American 10-1 WON ($20.20)
Next Best: #1 Bluegrass Rumor 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 She Gets It 12-1 11th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

The ML faves are solid, but you know I have to work the over-achieving Majestic Raffy in a bit. Aquillino doesn't run back like this too too often, but has a positive ROI ($2.39) doing so..

Most Likely: #2 Unbridled Fire 7-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Majestic Raffy 20-1 WON ($36.00)
Next Best: #6 Arc Above 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Kanagaro 4-1 3rd

.10 SUPER: 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with 1-2-3-4-6-9 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-8-9-12 (3x2x4x6 = 144 x .10 = $14.40)

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Kittylicious hasn't come back to her top 3yo form after having a chip taken out, but she is coming around toward her best effort in the recent past and the 11/25/11 try at AQU would fit in here nicely at a big price..

Most Likely: #7 Proudroad to Glory 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Kittylicious 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 The West Rim 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Blue Grass Music 5-1 5th

9th: Nani Rose, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

As I said to Rusty Arnold, it looked like this event was written for Karlovy Vary, but Peace Preserver's last at MTH was terrific. If she runs here -- she is cross-entered in the Matchmaker at Oceanport -- she has an upset chance at a nice number (8-1)..

Most Likely: #7 Karlovy Vary 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Alaura Michele 12-1 WON ($15.60)
Next Best: #1 Dame Marie 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Angel Terrace 15-1 4th

10th: 20th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (DD)

Interesting group for this King's Bishop prep. Gun Boat and Fort Loudon both come off big efforts 22 days ago. Currency Swap and Laurie's Rocket (now with DWL) both broke their MDN's here a year ago at this trip. Politicallycorrect liked turning back to 7f out of the Gulfstream Derby back in February. Doctor Chit has done little wrong and Unbridled's Note came back after a 90 day freshening and ran big..

Most Likely: #1 Gun Boat 4-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Currency Swap 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Politicallycorrect 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Fort Loudon 7-2 5th

11th: CLM, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #4 Police Chatter 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Vee One Rotate 6-1 5th
Next Best: #15 Minescape 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Myhorseofcourse 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-7-10
9: 2-7
10: 1-2-4-5-6-7
11: 4-9-10-15

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve