Derby Trail Forums - 7/23: Saratoga (Day 4; Evan Shipman)

Poor decisions on a majority of the slate produced more underwhelming results on Day 3 of Saratoga Sunday as a series of mid-priced horses that I left off tickets stormed home. 2nd choice Paper Plane ($8.30) & Temper in Command ($8.60) and 3rd choices Rigby ($9.40), Hardrocker ($15.20) & Readbytheline ($9.70) all were viable but omitted for one reason or another to detrimental effect. Despite small victories in the last trio and a nice $20 place mutuel on 25-1 'Best Value' Clever Spirit, the bankroll bruising of the meet's first three days reached the four figure mark with the P6 try and P3/P4 misses piling up. Will try to right the ship on Monday's solid card which offers a number of spots that could quickly make up for the weekend's lost ground.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Heiko 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Bravo Habibi 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Decisive Move 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #4 Tightend Touchdown 5-1 4th

2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Carson Hall 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Safety Valve 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Liston 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Attractive Ride 10-1 3rd

3rd: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 High Cry 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Lady Rizzi 4-1 WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #4 Paraiba 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Eden is Burning 3-1 2nd

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

SCR #7 Spring to the Sky who ran a great 3rd at 22-1 behind Summer Front in the Duluth here Sunday..

Most Likely: #5 Change of Command 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Majestic Raffy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Coexist 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Which Market 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Set the Sail 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 2-5 with 2-5-6-10 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 (2x3x4x3 = 720 x .10 = $7.20)

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

First of its' kind at the meet with 2yo's, fillies here, going long on the grass. Some appropriate pedigrees involved but a good deal of mystery with 5 firsters; Broken Spell & Omnitap stretching out while first turf; Billboard Babe & Radiant Cut stretching out 2nd career start after 6f-T tries..

Best Value: #1 Broken Spell 15-1: Sneaky move; Dam minor grass stake winner.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Da Mi Basia Mille 6-1: Out of Cozzene mare; Clement 23% debut 1m+.. WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Citizen Emma 4-1: Half to Trombetta SW Cave's Valley.. 2nd
Super Add: #10 Radiant Cut 12-1: Advantage of start; Half to 5x SW Mr. Gruff.. 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-7-8
3: 4-6-9
4: 2-5
5: 1-2-3-4-10

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Victory for V L T's 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Party of Interest 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Hard Life 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ginger Snapit 12-1 3rd

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Polan 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dark Roast 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Soul House 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Weekend Hideaway 8-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e West ownership entry 2-1 4th/5th
Next Best: #3 Invocation 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Yankee 9-5 6th
Super Add: #4 Flashy Sunrise 6-1 3rd

9th: 31st Evan Shipman-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Away since March, anything close to Lunar Victory's best wins this..

Most Likely: #7 Lunar Victory 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #4 Johannesburg Smile 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sailmate 4-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Vee's Accolade 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Salt Water Cowboy 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Into the Fray 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Turnofthecat 12-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-6
8: 1-2-3
9: 7
10: 2-3-6-7

3x3x1x4 = $36 ($72 for $2; $18 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve