Derby Trail Forums - 7/20: Saratoga (Opening Day; Schuylerville/James Marvin)

What a week with Del Mar record-smashing opening Wednesday, the Spa stand leaving the gate today and superb stakes action throughout North America through Sunday. Saratoga will be especially contentious this summer given the bulbous purses and the large fields they're drawing based on the first 3 cards that have been drawn. As always, it won't take more than a couple of good ideas any afternoon to make your Toga play successful. Good luck these next 7 weeks. I hope many will get a chance to make a trip to 'the foothills of the Adirondacks' between now and Labor Day. It feels as if this is going to be a particularly great season.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Wild scramble to kick off the meet with at least 6 capable of winning. No need to be overly fearful of the 3-1 fave Salto or 7-2 co-second choice Yankee Fortune as they aren't any better here than players like Followmyfootsteps (5-1) and Nine O Wonderful (12-1). Of the ML faves, Voodoo Storm (7-2), 4yo Storm Cat son of the outstanding Voodoo Dancer and exiting the G3 Poker, is the most appealing..

Most Likely: #9 Voodoo Storm 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Followmyfootsteps 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Salto 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Nine O Wonderful 12-1 WON ($28.20)

2nd: NY-MSW, F&M3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Again, a handful of horses appear interchangeable as win candidates (1-5-8-10-12) with little separating them..

Most Likely: #8 Bourbonology 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Alwaysinmycircle 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #10 Kibosh 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Mela Dramatically 5-1 8th

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

It's a Filly Friday with 2 divisions of MSW action and the Schuylerville. As discussed on ATR Thursday, Ward (#2 Lignite, 3-1) and Pletcher (#3 Kimono, 5-2) will get the attention, but #8 Oscar Party (6-1) from Catalano and #5 Liberty Girl (5-1) from Harty and a half to Champagne d'Oro and Ruler On Ice, have pedigrees and work patterns that fit nicely..

Best Value: #8 Oscar Party 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Lignite 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Kimono 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Liberty Girl 5-1 6th

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

C. Brown poised for a big opening day with Bourbonology in the 2nd, Book Review here and Unaccountable in the 6th..

Most Likely: #6 Book Review 6-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #8 Ullapool 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Abide 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Soul of Hollywood 20-1 8th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

2nd division of filly babies with a couple more notable pedigrees involved here than in the 3rd. Kauai Kate and Distortion are out of stakes winning ("SW") mares More Than Pretty and Misty Rosette respectively. Lenderofladstresort (Yes It's True) is a half to speedy Pashito the Che (Flatter) while Ruby Lips (Hard Spun) is a half to 3X SW Like a Gem (Tactical Cat)..

Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Kauai Katie 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Lenderoflastresort 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Distortion 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-8-10-12
3: 2-3-5-8
4: 6
5: 1-2-3-5-6

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,13,14,15,16/2/6/1,6,9) Paid $25.75 x 2 = $51.50

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

#2 The Vin Man is going to SCR which draws #13 Versailles Road (9-5) in. This is some competitive set for $20k claimers ($40k pot) and gives you an indication of how contentious this Spa stand will be..

Most Likely: #13 Versailles Road 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Powhattan County 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Unaccountable 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Slambino 15-1 7th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 13 with 4-5-6-7-8-9 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12)

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

What a fun race with a wacky set of older maiden F&M's on the inner turf. It feels like you want those that haven't proven themselves utter ne'er do wells and Shug's #3 Gloat is a half to Parading and 12-1..

Best Value: #3 Gloat 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cosmic Energy 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Colonial Empress 8-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Late SCR

8th: 5th James Marvin (G3), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

This stake went from overnight to graded in about 30 seconds. Defender Jackson Bend, 2/2 at Spa, always merits respect and admiration. And Caixa Electronica is no doorknob either..

Most Likely: #7 Jackson Bend 7-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Caixa Electronica 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Pacific Ocean 5-1 WON ($14.20)

9th: 94th Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

SCR feverish #6 Mr Hall's Opus.

Baby J helped me along to a big day when acing her debut 6/28 and she was subsequently purchased by our Toy Cannon partner Paul Pompa and moved to Rick Dutrow. Will get pace pressure. Tony Dutrow sends Maggi Moss number So Many Ways who gets Javy and fist Lasix. Pletcher sends Can't Explain, a NJ-bred by Not for Love that fetched $150k and improved 2nd out. McPeek's Fully Living stalked Can't Explain when breaking her maiden and that tact might be invaluable in this..

Most Likely: #2 Baby J 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 So Many Ways 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #4 Can't Explain 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Fully Living 4-1 4th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

As mentioned in passing on ATR Thursday, does every sequence in the country have to end with a confusing maiden claiming event? Tom Voss has a real chance to bookend the card with Followmyfootsteps in the opener and Pyro City (8-1) live here..

Best Value: #9 Pyro City 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Rotheryn 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Momentum Investor 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Way of the West 10-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4-5
8: 1-5-7
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 8-9-11

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve