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-   -   7/18: Del Mar (6th-10th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47555)

Kasept 07-18-2012 06:27 AM

7/18: Del Mar (6th-10th)
 
DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Oceanside-R, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Blingo is an underlaid 3-1 fave here and needs a spirited pace battle up front to win. Boat Trip the horse to beat from my perspective and there's no harm in trying to knock him off too. Sadler explained on ATR that You Know I Know will opt for easier spot leaving barnmate Koast as his representative, but stretchout a big question mark at low tote. Midnight Crooner was a horse that really looked good breaking his maiden at Golden Gate and timing is right for him to take step forward

Best Value: #3 Midnight Crooner 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #6 Boat Trip 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Chips All In 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Blingo 3-1 4th


7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Giant Steps still seems sharp, moves to barn that's great with new acquisitions, gets 5-9#'s from field and is 8-1..

Best Value: #5 Giant Steps 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Valkyrie Missle 3-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #12 Bet On Victor 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Gold Medallion 20-1 4th


8th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Well-matched set of Golden Staters. Watch out for AE-12 Gatheratthealter (SCR'D) should he draw in..

Most Likely: #10 Woodman's Luck 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Low Gear Power 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Killer Bear 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #9 Siempre Mio 8-1 10th


9th: Oceanside-R, 3yo, 1m-T (DD)

This division being billed as coming out party for Holy Candy. Full sib Holloween Candy -- campaigned by Mark Verge -- won 5x and was plenty OK on turf. 7-5 not too pleasing but may end up being more than appropriate..

Most Likely: #9 Holy Candy 7-5 DNF
Best Value: #5 My Best Brother 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Next Best: #7 Stoney Fleece 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Tones 10-1 2nd


10th: Cal-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 Super Hi-5)

SCR: 1-8-14

How to handle the 2 firsters (Salty Forecast and Miss Lady Ellen) and Vonn Nez are the question marks here..

Most Likely: #13 Not Kidding Around 9-2 5th
Best Value: #11 War Excess 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Fly to Freedom 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Vonn Nez 6-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Miss Lady Ellen 6-1 WON ($14.40)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-6-8-9-12
8: 2-5-10
9: 9
10: 2-4-6-9-10-11-13

7x3x1x7 = 147 x .50 = $73.50


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 07-18-2012 12:56 PM

DMR SCR/CHG'S

10 pnt move up 07-18-2012 03:19 PM

On that late pick 4, if Holy Candy wins unless you hit big numbers in the other races I don't see how this is a good bet.

Wouldnt it just be better to bet 73.50 on Holy Candy at maybe 6/5?

The caveman spread makes some sense if you loved a singled horse who was a price.

lazytom 07-18-2012 03:31 PM

have to just wait and see-steve hit a pick 6 using favorites and then catching a nice odds horse in one race. seems like the same approach here.the man has his reasons and they have some amazing results in the end- best of luck to you

Rootdog1 07-18-2012 03:43 PM

Late 4

7)1,8,9,12
8)2,3,5,7,10
9)4,5,9
10)10,12,13
$90
Backup

7)2,3,4,8,12
8)3,5,10
9)6,9
10)12
$15

Rudeboyelvis 07-18-2012 03:49 PM

I like Von Nez in the nightcap... not crazy abt the cut back in distance, but the drop in class to reality might finally get this one home at a decent price.. the O'neil firster will take a ton of cash

3kings 07-18-2012 04:35 PM

Delmar #2
$10 WP #6

herkhorse 07-18-2012 05:07 PM

race 3 pick 3

123/89/237

Heels1989 07-18-2012 05:14 PM

Race 3

$5 Ex box
1 2 3

Kasept 07-18-2012 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 875784)
On that late pick 4, if Holy Candy wins unless you hit big numbers in the other races I don't see how this is a good bet.

Wouldnt it just be better to bet 73.50 on Holy Candy at maybe 6/5?

The caveman spread makes some sense if you loved a singled horse who was a price.


The message is that the 7th & 10th are opportunities to get prices. As discussed today with Gary Young and Rick Hammerle, it's very tricky sequence. I had a different, cheap and simple play originally and was still singling Holy Candy, so I wanted to get coverage om more of the esoteric players. The pool is going to be very large and even mundane winners should cover the investment.

herkhorse 07-18-2012 05:47 PM

Race 4

10 wp 8

5.00 ex box 89

Heels1989 07-18-2012 05:48 PM

Race 4

$5 EX Box
2 3 4

$290

Rudeboyelvis 07-18-2012 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heels1989 (Post 875813)
Race 4

$5 EX Box
2 3 4

$290

:tro::$: nice Dave!

3kings 07-18-2012 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heels1989 (Post 875813)
Race 4

$5 EX Box
2 3 4

$290

Nice Dave!

Rudeboyelvis 07-18-2012 06:27 PM

R5

$20 win 8 116.00
$5 ex 8/3,7

Heels1989 07-18-2012 06:29 PM

Thx guys

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club 5
$5.00 EX (BOX )
5, 6, 8

$30.00

$149.50

$0.10 SF (PWHL)
5, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

$33.60

$230.47

Heels1989 07-18-2012 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 875820)
R5

$20 win 8 116.00
$5 ex 8/3,7

Very nice Dan :$:

Rudeboyelvis 07-18-2012 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heels1989 (Post 875821)
Thx guys

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club 5
$5.00 EX (BOX )
5, 6, 8

$30.00

$149.50

$0.10 SF (PWHL)
5, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

$33.60

$230.47


He's ON FIRE!!!!!! :tro:

herkhorse 07-18-2012 06:47 PM

nice Dan and Dave!

geeker2 07-18-2012 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 875820)
R5

$20 win 8 116.00
$5 ex 8/3,7

Nice Dan ! AND Heels!


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