Beyer Speed Figure Question
 

I was looking for advice in regards to beyer speed figure. If a horse runs a higher beyer speed figure in a lesser race does that have to be taken in consideration when he jumps up to a higher level or supposedly better quality of horse who run lesser beyers.

Hope this make sense and thanks to anyone who can help

I "think" I understand your question.

I believe a horse can run a higher figure against lower competition due to having race / pace factors in his favor. Also, was the track sloppy? sealed?

When a cheap horse jumps up and runs a big figure against cheap horses, he wont necessarily translate that to better competition.

PLUS, you have to factor in the age of the horse. Is he a young horse maturing? or an older horse with proven past running lines.

I'm going to go ahead and say that he's talking about Paynter.

I'm not referring to the Belmont Stakes. For example horse runs a Beyer in a maiden non winners of 1 of 73 and now jumps to maiden special weight or allowance and is running against horses that are running in the mid 60's.

Does the horse that ran the 73 become a strong play because his beyer is 6-8 points higher.

Thanks for feedback

I think we need a condition book 101 here first.

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

Thank you for the response.

A lot of misinformation here.

I'll bite...

Theoretically yes. But the one thing - and I think most on here would agree with - is the abstract role that "class" plays. It's impossible to truly quantify class. Beyer speed figures (and other similar, well-designed figures) do the best job out there, however, at capturing the overall ability of a race horse.

But horses with inferior figures, who are dropping in class, seem to improve enough as a result of the class drop (or other factors, such as the pace of the race) to support the idea that class plays a role. Perhaps this part illusion, or hogwash... but I think if all else was equal, and two horses had the same figures but one was earned against tougher horses, I would take the class dropper over the other almost always.

That said, maybe someone else can explain this better...

Like what? And this isn't twitter , you can speak in complete sentences.

Those two sentences, for starters.

Yes, it has to be taken into consideration. The beyer system is a good tool to aid in handicapping a race, but there are other as important factors that must be considered.

I would assume that the ROI for someone who simply bet the best last out Beyer every race would be pretty low.

It's way better than you think.

The ROI is $1.85 for top last out Beyer figures.

Win takeout is typically about 16%...so a $1.68 ROI would be average.

Obviously, anyone who just blindly picks up a form and bets the highest last out number is a fool. You're going to lose 7.5% of every dollar you bet doing that and you might as well as pull a lever on a slot machine for the same rake because you'll at least have a slim chance at rare jackpot opportunities.

That is a lot higher than I would have thought, thanks for the info.