Derby Trail Forums - 5/24: Belmont Park ($28k C/O)

Week flying by after a Preakness that has had all viewers -- dedicated or casual -- abuzz. Nothing sets the game and even general sporting observers into a frenzy like a Triple Crown bid. I'll Have Another appears better suited to the challenge than many of those that have fallen short in recent years with a pedigree and style that work for the 12f 'Test of the Champion'. Other pluses as we arc towards Elmont include the remarkably unflappable Mario Gutierrez and the 'dig deep' victory in the Preakness, historically a more positive harbinger of Belmont success than an open length romp.

Going back to the weekend, after a bad Friday, Preakness action proved excellent for the bankroll with DWL's $19 Skyring anchoring big returns within the Murphy itself and through multi-race punts involving the race. Hope everyone enjoyed the coverage and did well. Off the turf action Wednesday at Belmont provided surprising fireworks that resulted in a $28k carryover into Thursday's good card. Only the 9th race has come off the turf. 3rd, 6th, 7th remain on...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$28k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Diamond District 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #4 Roaring Conquest 4-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Stonecoldsteamer 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Saxaphone Len 6-1 4th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Mischief Maker 6-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #2 Lil'bella 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Sweet Kakes 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Mary P. Jones 15-1 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Start of P4 and major key to the C/O as 2yo's turf sprint. Interesting firsters #5 Jump for Kitten (By Kitten's Joy and full to solid Kid Canuck) and #8 Leader Avenue (out of excellent MSW Dyna Da Wyna) meld with KEE baby race exiters (#4 Brazilian Court SCR, #6 Almost an Angel, #7 Joha) and one or other of Breen-Hall Bernstein colts (FTS #1 Bye Bye Bernie or 2nd timer #1 Bern Identity SCR). Not sure how you exclude any from serious tickets..

Most Likely: #5 Jump for Kitten 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Almost an Angel 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Leader Avenue 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Joha 5-2 WON ($5.80)

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

This is a good, tough race, but as opposed to the difficult 6th where a clear winner is murky, if Revenue runs back to her performance turf dashing at Gulfstream, she's best here..

Most Likely: #4 Revenue 4-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Limonar 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Finding Neverland 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Button Girl 7-2 4th

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Spring to the Sky 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Catalan 6-1 WON ($9.90)
Next Best: #1 Poppa's Pick 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Trouble in Dodge 3-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #1 Runawayeightyfour 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #12 Purge Bird 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Freudian Therapist 50-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 SCR

<$125 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-9
5: 8
6: 1-5-6-7-8
7: 4-7
8: 3-5
9: 1

3x1x5x2x2x1 = 60 x $2 = $120

$2 Pick 6 (9/6,8/4,7,10/9,11/5/1,2,6,7,8,9,11) Paid $22.20 (5OF6) x 2 = $44.40

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-6-7-8
7: 1-4-7-9-10
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 1

5x5x4x1 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 Pick 4 (4,7,10/9,11/5/1,2,6,7,8,9,11) Paid $86.75

Good luck!
Steve