Closers getting a setup in the Belmont
 

A horse like Dullahan especially will need a 47 and change pace.

Here is how the top finishing closers have performed in the Belmont since the archived charts from 1991 when they've had 48.00 or faster paces to work with.

2009: 47.13 half mile (Mine That Bird was dead last early 11 lengths behind -- he finished 3rd and never finished better than 3rd in his next 7 starts)

2006: 47.36 half mile (Eventual winner Jazil was dead last of 12 horses early on and a dozen lengths back. He never won another race, including two defeats at the ALW level)

2001: 48.00 half mile (Dollar Bill was dead last early. He finished 4th. He was only 1-for-11 afterwards -- that lone win was a neck ALW win at Fairgrounds as an odds-on favorite)

1999: 47.60 half mile (Best of Luck closed from 11th -- more than 14 lengths out of it -- to finish 4th. He was off the board in the Jim Dandy at 3/1 next out and 1-for-11 with 3 alw defeats afterwards)

1996: 46.80 half mile (Editor's Note was 12th beaten 11.5 lengths and ran down leader Skip Away in the stretch to win a fast paced Belmont Stakes. He was off the board in both the Jim Dandy and Travers -- and was 2-for-14 the rest of his career with one win coming at the ALW level)

1994: 47.40 half mile (Signal Tap closed from last to finish 4th. He was beaten in all of his next six starts. Five of them at the ALW level -- and the lone stakes try a 7th place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby as the second choice in the betting)

1992: 47.00 half mile (The horse who was last after a half mile lost all of his next 10 races -- all at the ALW level...but he also ran poorly in the Belmont. Meanwhile, European My Memories closed strongest and gained 3 lengths on winner A. P. Indy to finish a close 2nd at the wire. He was a badly beaten favorite in the Jim Dandy next out and never better than 6th in all five starts afterwards)

1991: 46.60 half mile (the favorite Strike The Gold rallied from dead last to finish 2nd by a head. He was defeated in all of his next 10 starts.

When the pace has been slower than 48.00 in the Belmont since 2000 -- and the eventual winner has never been more than 4 lengths off of the pace.

2011 half mile of 49.08 (winner Ruler On Ice was never more than 2 lengths back. Winless in six starts since)

2008 half mile of 48.30 (winner D' Tara went wire-to-wire. Winless in all 11 starts since. Four defeats in ALW races)

2007 half mile of 50.14 (winner Rags To Riches was never more than 2.75 lengths back. Winless in only start since -- beaten as 2-to-5 favorite)

2003 half mile of 48.70 (winner Empire Maker never more than 2.5 lengths back. Winless in only start since -- beaten as 1-to-5 favorite in Jim Dandy Stakes)

2002 half mile of 48.09 (winner Sarava never more than 4 lengths back. Failed to even finish in the top 3 in all 8 career starts afterwards -- including three at the ALW level)

2000 half mile of 49.29 (winner Commendable never more than 1.5 lengths back. Winless in four career starts)


Since 2000, horses who have won Belmont Stakes while never more than 4 lengths back when the pace has been slower than 48.00 -- are a combined 0-for-30 in all subsquent races.

I'd love to see a cumulative list of recent collective Belmont winners in their post-Belmont careers. It can't be very good.

Obviously there have been some very good ones win the race over the last 20 years. Point Given, Birdstone, Summer Bird, Victory Gallop, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Tabasco Cat, A. P Indy.

However -- the closers who have got the setup in this race -- and more recently -- the horses who've won from up near a soft pace --- have both been disastrous underachievers since.

Seems like for every Point Given (Haskell/Travers) and Summer Bird (Travers/JCGC), there's a Commendable (never won again), Afleet Alex (never raced again), Jazil (no explanation needed), Sarava, and Da'Tara. It's a mixed bag.

Doug, if sub :48 half happens in a few weeks, any chance Rousing Sermon gets a piece underneath, at what should be a price? Or is he pretty hopeless?

Summer Bird had the style of a one-run closer leading into the 2009 Belmont Stakes. He settled midpack in the Belmont (although he was shuffled back at one point).

Perhaps Dullahan will be a bit handier early in the event of a slow pace as he has in some of his turf races.

I haven't looked at the projected pace yet.

I like Dullahan to run very well and will probably pick him if I think he gets 47 and change like his half bro Mine That Bird got and doesn't get as poorly timed of a ride. I'd rather have Dale Romans at Churchill than Belmont -- but what can you do.

If I think it's going to be a 24 and 49 and change pace -- obviously I wouldn't touch Dullahan.

Only if Bejarano gets back aboard! :rolleyes::D

The Baffert horse is always in the lead early in this years triple crown.

2011: Ruler on Ice- winless in 6 starts since
2010: Drosselmeyer- won BC Classic & listed stake, 2 seconds at Belmont, 3 off the board finishes
2009: Summer Bird- won Travers & JCGC, 2nd in Haskell, 4th in BCC
2008: Da Tara- winless in 11 starts... and not even close in a lot of them
2007: Rags to Riches- ran once, 2nd at 1/5 in Gazelle
2006: Jazil- winless in 3 starts
2005: Afleet Alex- never ran again
2004: Birdstone- won Travers, 7th in BCC
2003: Empire Maker- 2nd at 1/5 in Jim Dandy
2002: Sarava- winless in 8 starts, never hit the board
2001: Point Given- won Haskell & Travers, retired
2000: Commendable- off the board twice then 3rd in Travers, 2nd in Super Derby

Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird, and Point Given did very well. Everybody else... not so much.

That 2008 crop was beyond awful.

Oddly enough, Sarava earned 109 and 110 figures in consecutive races during 2004 despite finishing 5th and 4th.

Funny Cide had a streak of like 15 straight races with 100+ Beyers in those days despite winning only occasionally. Were horses really that much faster in those days?

Subtract 5 points from those numbers if you want to compare them with todays -- that's about how much the class pars have changed since at all levels.

did beyer give a number to bet twice in 87 ?

1991 was when they first started being published in the DRF.