Derby Trail Forums - 5/12: Belmont ($26k C/O); Monmouth (6th-10th)

Another Belmont carryover into Saturday, on the heels of bonus pots Wednesday and Thursday, further demonstrates the challenging new landscape in New York. While $40 Sylvestris was key to generating today's $26k pool, another five of Friday's 9 races produced winners of $10.00 or more. Full fields and a complex variety of runners from far flung bases is making the early portion of the meet exceedingly tricky. Mid-week action was complicated by off the turf events, but with the rain having subsided, a nice weekend of grass racing looms. The summer feels like it arrives today with Monmouth and Delaware Parks opening to add to your options including Monday slates at the quaint First State oval.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$26k C/O starts here..

NOTE: #13 (AE) Captain Goodenough (5-1) would need to be considered should he draw in..

Most Likely: #5 Sam's Buck 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Northern Evader 8-1 12th
Next Best: #11 Alarmed Ndangerous 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Post Pattern 10-1 2nd

6th: Genuine Devotion, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (

Tough little overnight stake. Obvious contenders from top lawn outfits (Brown, Clement) figure tough but Weaver in with a shot at a number with MSP Ultimate Class and Going to Kukaro scares as wire threat..

SCR #8 Whipsaw City 5-2

Best Value: #9 Ultimate Class 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Going to Kukaro 4-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Liberty 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Sharnberry 8-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Digby B 7-2 11th
Best Value: #4 Renzo Bertoni 6-1 WON ($9.50)
Next Best: #1 Leroidessioux 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Bustarella 12-1 4th

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Antenna 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1a Fulton Street 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #13 Take Down Two 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Won Wild Dude 8-1 8th

9th: 58th Peter Pan (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Even with Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog scratching, a terrific rendition of this traditional Belmont S. prep. Feels like there is too much pace and pressure for one of the speeds to clear as pair inside (The Lumber Guy, Right to Vote) certain to hook up immediately with Le Bernadin and Master Rick stalking close up. Other half of the field made up of mid-pack stalkers and closers (Mark Valeski, Summer Front, Street Life, Good Morning Diva, Big Screen, Hakama) should get their targets..

Best Value: #4 Le Bernardin 15-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Mark Valeski 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #11 Summer Front 8-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Street Life 8-1 3rd

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Trainingforsuccess 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Frisky Cat 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Hidden Vow 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #5 Solengo 5-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5
6: 1-6-9
7: 3-4
8: 1-3
9: 4-5-11
10: 7-8

1x3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4
8: 1-3-13
9: 2-4-5-9-11-12
10: 7-8

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

MONMOUTH PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Fine Friends 6-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Final Forest 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Macho Mo Mon 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 No Fret 12-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Greatful Heir 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Busted Again 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #5 Deliguska 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Baffle Me 6-1 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Framed 9-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Playing a Joke 4-1 DNF-Fell
Exotics Use: #1 More Than Candy 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #6 Linebacker 7-2 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Chairman Now 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Small Town Talk 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dragonfish 8-1 2nd

10th: Decathlon, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very nice group for $75k. SCR Comedero who ran at BEL Thursday..

Best Value: #7 Flat Bold 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Bank Merger 9-2 DNF-Spill
Exotics Use: #9 Zero Rate Policy 3-1 DNF-Spill
Super Add: #4 Soaring Stocks 7-2 DNF-Spill

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 1-3-6-7-10-11
7: 3-4
8: 1-2-4-5-6-7
9: 4
10: 7-8

6x2x6x1x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve