Derby Day Pools
 

Hopefully this could be helpful in deciding when and where to put your money.

EVERY Derby day pool is way bigger than the normal day......So why does it matter ?

You're welcome.

The most surprising thing about that spreadsheet is that the 12 horse Churchill Downs out-handled the 13 horse Woodford Reserve in every exotic pool. Must have been all that money from people like me who bet Capt. Candyman Can and got one of the worst rides of Calvin Borel's career.

Bombs away last year.

Isn't the Woodford Reserve the race they inexplicably don't show every year?

They showed it last year.

It's usually the Manhattan that gets blacked out pre-Belmont.

It just kills me we can't bet a dime super on either day.

I'm for getting rid of dime supers and .50 P4's all-together. Can anyone truly say that their ROI on P4's has improved since they have gone the .50 route? People spend just as much playing .50 as they would a dollar get more combinations and IMLHO severly watered down payouts. I wish the industry or DRF would publish a study of .50 P4's. I do realize I won't get any support on my position but that is how I see it.

Lots of angles from which to talk about this but what comes to mind first is that "watered down payouts" mean more people are winning which a racetrack will never be too upset about. More churn.

That said, I know my personal action is dictated a lot by minimums. I never venture in a Superfecta pool where there isn't a dime minimum. Only rarely. And I appreciate my ability to get more action on a 50-cent Trifecta vs. a $1 minimum pool. Sure you win less, but in general people would rather win, even if it's less, with less risk than the opposite.

Derby Day and BC day are the only days Ill play the 50 cent min. I mean I play the 50 cent min and punch it 3 or 4x. But these days Im fine with just my 50 cent spread. 1 price and your getting $$.

Winning is walking out with more money then you start with. Cashing more tickets isn't winning unless you walk out with more money. ;)

except for the track as Travis pointed out regarding churn

But are they winning if they are driving away their whales becuase they have watered down payouts?

Disagree. I like the fact the minimums are higher on this big day. Encourages players to go for gusto with some monster scores possible from $1 super plays.

ditto

jms, when you analyze what you said above it is the combinations that affect the roi not the minimums.
For example if I was to play the late DD at Hollywood 5x5 it would cost me $50. How much can I expect from my dollar if a $14 horse wins one of the legs and a 5-2 second choice wins the other? I'll get my money back plus a few bucks.

On the same racecard I instead decide to play the late pick 4 1x1x5x5. My investment is $12.50 and I hit the first two legs. I can now compare the p-4 payout for $.50 to a $12 DD in legs 1 and 2. In most cases the $12 DD in legs 1 and 2 will pay very close to the $.50 p-4 payout. It is the races in which I spread that determines my profit margin.

The way I see it is that the lower the minimum the more amateur money gets into the pools.

LOL... Sorry Port I am not smart enough to have the faintest clue of what you are trying to say.

I'm sure you're smart enough. I didn't make it clear.


I'm trying to point out that ultimately it is where you spread that will determine how profitable your p-4 wager will be. If people are spreading more because of the minimum cost they better be getting at least $12 horses. Its the winning chalk that keeps the payoffs low not the base wager.