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-   -   3/21: Aqueduct ($40k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46035)

Kasept 03-21-2012 06:57 AM

3/21: Aqueduct ($40k C/O)
 
AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Small, tricky group with an undefined pace scenario. Jupiter Trio the horse to beat but you'll need to rely on Luzzi to push the right buttons..

Most Likely: #2 Jupiter Trio 2-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Make Note 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Haya's Boy 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Precious Metal 5-2 4th


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Some amazing pedigrees here including Stronach's Hildegarde (daughter of GSW Dynamite Lass); Juddmonte's Nebraska (Out of the fabulous MGSW Toussaud daughter Honest Lady); Riboletti (Darley's homebred Distorted Humor filly out of Champion Riboletta); Unrivaled Score (Out of SW Ashtabula by Unbridled's Song and thus a full sister of sire Even the Score); Fashion's Flight (Dicxie Union miss out of General Jeanne making her a half the Justwhistledixie and ill-fated Chace City)..

Most Likely: #4 Riboletti 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Nebraska 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Unrivaled Score 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Fashion's Flight 5-2 WON ($10.80)


4th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$40k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #8 Handsome Harbor 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Terminus 2-1 -
Exotics Use: #7 Goodtime Boy 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Corofin 8-1 WON ($16.80)


5th: S-OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As Andy Serling and I batted around on ATR, Cat in the Forest will end up as a single on many, many tickets. I get the feeling that if it isn't him, it could be anybody..

Most Likely: #7 Cat in the Forest 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Awesome Arceno 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Pete's Parley 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Tatao's Wildcat 10-1 WON ($18.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-5
3: 1-3-4
4: 4-7-8
5: 1-4-5-7

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Excellent, well-matched set..

Most Likely: #9 Evan's Rocket 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Readygetsgold 12-1 4th
Next Best : #5 Northern Warrior 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Notell 8-1 3rd


7th: HCP, 4yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Mostly returnees from winter sequence of these events dominated by Midnite Silver. Variations on theme include the one turn mile configuration and stranger danger in the Preciado-Caramouche gelding Barely Nothing..

Best Value: #6 Barely Nothing 10-1 WON ($8.50)
Next Best: #4 Midnite Silver 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Bail Out the Banks 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Good Karma 4-1 5th


8th: Lynclar, F&M-4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Aquitania WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #5 Strike the Moon 3rd


9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Anaphylaxsis is entered back and may SCR..

Most Likely: #6 Inquest 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Winloc's John Lee 2-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Keyaly 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Papa Freud 20-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

This is an exceedingly difficult sequence. May want to concentrate on P4's, P3's and in-race opps today and see if it carries again to Thursday..

4: 4-7-8
5: 1-4-5-7
6: 3-9
7: 6
8: 1
9: 1-5-6

3x4x2x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6-9
7: 4-5-6-8
8: 1-5
9: 1-5-6

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

blackthroatedwind 03-21-2012 08:30 AM

I never said if it wasn't Cat in the Forest it was anybody. In fact, I never said anything close.

Kasept 03-21-2012 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 847206)
I never said if it wasn't Cat in the Forest it was anybody. In fact, I never said anything close.

True.. I'm saying that...

Kasept 03-21-2012 10:08 AM

AQU SCR/CHG'S

fantini33 03-21-2012 11:07 AM

The Pompay-Klaravich connections have what seems to be a live firster in the 3rd at Gulfstream. Paco Lopez up. Just a thought.

Kasept 03-21-2012 12:19 PM

Haven't even started and I'm unhappy with my ticket in the P4... Cooper River uncovered but tough to see where I could trim elsewhere. It's like that throughout this card.

RockHardTen1985 03-21-2012 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 847279)
Haven't even started and I'm unhappy with my ticket in the P4... Cooper River uncovered but tough to see where I could trim elsewhere. It's like that throughout this card.

I thought in the 7th you could use 5,6 and be OK standing against the 4. I need 3,4 right now for a decent little score on $20 worth of tickets. I also thought the 6th you could use just 3,5.

RockHardTen1985 03-21-2012 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fantini33 (Post 847249)
The Pompay-Klaravich connections have what seems to be a live firster in the 3rd at Gulfstream. Paco Lopez up. Just a thought.

Sharp call. Nice!!!

Kasept 03-21-2012 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fantini33 (Post 847249)
The Pompay-Klaravich connections have what seems to be a live firster in the 3rd at Gulfstream. Paco Lopez up. Just a thought.

Very nice! Slick run.

3kings 03-21-2012 02:37 PM

Casually watching not playing is AQ speed favoring with a gold rail?

fantini33 03-21-2012 02:45 PM

Thanks guys! That combo produces PLENTY of nice FTS that pay well. They seemingly do not bet on them either as I have seen a half dozen or so win and pay in the $20 range. Currency Swap is what turned me onto this angle last year at the Spa...then followed them along with a few at Monmouth. Worth noting.

Kasept 03-21-2012 03:50 PM

How is the #1 uncovered in the P6? Very strange.. #10 carries too. Everything else pays from $19k-$133k. Thought Keyaly had real chance in here.


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