3/17: Gulfstream (7th-11th); Oaklawn (8th-11th)
 

Enjoyed a productive Friday at Santa Anita gaining another P6 conso and the late P4 for modest profit. The day's best opinion came in the tough starter allowance 7th, a challenging race where using all 4 tabs in both the P6 and P4 proved necessary and prescient when War Politics nosed favored Baby Blake. The Bien's Gift, 15-1 on Jon White's line but 20-1 when the gates opened, was my best value key horse and he chased 5-2 Baby Blake the entire way around the turf course. The pair was caught at the wire by Doug O'Neill's War Politics, 6-1 on the ML but marginalized at 11-1, who was making his first grass start. The triple came back a hefty $675.

The 5 of 6 conso returned $257 and the P4 $135, so the ledger was well clear as attention turned to Saturday handicapping and the evening's hardcourt action. As strong as the results at Aqueduct and Santa Anita turned out the last 3 days, it wasn't as satisfying as pushing Lehigh over Duke to listeners this week. Along with being delighted for Lehigh in general and Engineer alumni friends Andy Serling and Barry Frey specifically, the win is shared by Bucknell, Lafayette, Navy, my alma mater Colgate and the rest of the immensely proud Patriot League. A group of ATR listeners led by the one and only 'Robert in Arizona' arrived in Vegas Friday and may not leave any time soon after burying an unsuspecting sports book with the Lehigh win. Hope everyone did great yesterday! Bad weather in California and a confusing Aqueduct P4 leave the focus on Gulfstream and Oaklawn Saturday..


GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T/12' (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Think you want to play this pretty straight with some more inscrutable spots coming later in the sequence. Imported top choices from Brown/Leparoux and Clement/Lezcano just look better than the prices..

Most Likely: #7 Whipsaw City 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #8 Limonar 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Font 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Silver Prism 6-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Again, short numbers appear best options though Granitz decision to come from Tampa for $60k with #8 Rose Briar (6-1) raises an eyebrow. Goes turf to dirt and gets big rider upgrade to hustling Paco..

Most Likely: #5 Pushingonastring 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #1 Wise Guy Charlie 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Rose Briar 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fortin 10-1 2nd


9th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T/72' (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched lawn lasses. Can reach around for prices a bit here..

Best Value: #10 Sure Route 15-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Vivo Per Lei 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Lisa Jean 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Button Girl 6-1 2nd


10th: 36th Inside Information (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Outstanding cast for this and as discussed extensively Friday on ATR, Iwinski's Magical Feeling can adjust to various pace scenarios from advantageous position. Price may not be 10-1 but should be square..

Best Value: #10 Magical Feeling 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 R Holiday Mood 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Musical Romance 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #11 Her Smile 3-1 6th


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T/12' (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Topazio 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #9 Tiz Sunset 3-1 DNF
Best Value: #11 Little Bailey 5-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #7 Natalie's Goal 6-1 3rd


<$200 P5 Play:

7: 7-8
8: 1-5
9: 9-10
10: 5-6-10-11
11: 5-9

2x2x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 5 (7/3,5,7/3/5/5) Paid $31.65 (4OF5) X 2 = $63.30


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-5-8
9: 6-9-10
10: 4-5-6-9-10-11
11: 5-9

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 26th Azeri (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4)

Queen of Oaklawn Absinthe Minded tries to break long winless skien for D. Wayne here and not only loves this strip but owns an advantage based on pace scenario too..

Most Likely: #1 Absinthe Minded 3-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Ravi's Song 9-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Joyful Victory 8-5 3rd


9th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3)

First of two divisions and very tough..

Most Likely: #11 On the Loose Again 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Horn Buckle 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Artillery 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Master Rick 8-1 WON ($10.00)


10th: 52nd Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

As discussed on ATR, race appears to go through Secret Circle if you're convinced added 110 yards won't stop him. After that, it seems like you latch on to any -- and as many -- of the prices as you can based on any positive attribute you sense. Reckless Jerry need only get back to his Smarty Jones try to compete while Richards entry is superfecta friendly at a big number. Unbridled's Note will be forwardly placed and can be excused in disasterous Southwest..

Most Likely: #8 Secret Circle 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #10 Reckless Jerry 12-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Unbridled's Note 20-1 12th
Exotics Use: #5 Optimizer 30-1 2nd


11th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Beer Garden 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Limehouse Blues 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Skyring 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Tizawonderfullife 6-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-4
9: 2-3-4-6-10-11
10: 8-10
11: 3-6-7-11

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

OP SCR/CHG'S

NOTE Fever takes Ring It Up out stunting appeal of Chris Richard Rebel entry..

La Festa a play back today? Price will be much lower, but that isn't exactly a field of world beaters he is in against.

Steve, can the Oaklawn pick 4 pay much keying Secret Circle? I have something like this as of now....

1,5/2,4,7,11/8/3,4,6,7,8,11

It feels like if Lukas wins the first and Secret Circle wins it really cant pay. Whats your opinion?

That literally might be the worst field I have ever seen. Why not, almost a must use IMO.

Agree.. Why not him? Repeat of last fits.

While highly likely, I don't believe Absinthe is a mortal slam dunk in the 8th. Think it absolutely can pay nicely and I think you have to approach it mostly through Secret Circle unless you have a great opinion of someone else. I added Reckless Jerry because the Smarty Jones effort is the closest thing to what Secret Circle does every start and he's going to get a pace to chase. The Asmussen on the rail would be the next most interesting just because Southwest is a toss and he has to be something based on the debut. But I'm using Ravi's Song and the Man in the Magic Hat in the Azeri, 6 in the 9th and 4 in the 11th seeking something worthwhile in the sequence. Fun group of races. G/L!

That's some ML on Sure Route

Awful race.