Projecting figures for very old races.
 

Two people now have asked me about how I do this. It's very simple to do.

The one huge advantage you have of making figures for a day from 30 years ago VS making figures for yesterdays races -- is that you can pull up forms and results for all of the horses subsquent races and finishes.

The hardest part with these old figures is gauging how class levels of old relate to class levels of todays racing. Thankfully, class levels were MUCH simpler and straight-forward decades ago.

Here's an example:

May 27th 1979 Belmont Park. Three dirt routes.











The three races are a 35K open claiming race for older males at Belmont (Todays Beyer Par for this class level at BEL is a 91) An N3X ALW for older females (Todays Beyer Par for this class level is a 89) and the Peter Pan Stakes (The Beyer par for the Peter Pan is a 103)

Coastal won the Peter Pan in 1:47 flat. His time was 21 points faster than Peat Moss ran in his 5.75 length romping win. Coastal's time was also 37 points faster than Propitiate in her 3.5 length N3X Alw win.

In theory, because of inflation, an open 35K claiming race from 1979 should be tougher than an open 35K race from today. I translate an open 35K from '79 to equal an open 50K and a 94 par from today.

Anyway, it was clearly an above par 35K CLM race. Peat Moss was making his first start at 9 furlongs since a Remsen try where he was bet some against Believe It and Alydar. He had closed strongly at a mile last out.



Peat Moss famously would rise from the claiming ranks and once won at 2 miles under 145lbs and was 2nd by a half length to John Henry in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

* Debtor's Haven (2nd by 5.75 lengths) was first and second in two prior starts and would be 1st and 2nd in two subsquent starts at the same class level. Has the surrounding form of a low 90's horse.

* Lancer's Pride (3rd by 9.75 lengths) would win an open 30K claiming race at Belmont next time out...just a few weeks later. Lancer's Pride was a 42-time winner for his career! Consistant with a high 80's horse)

* Framarco (4th by 12.5 lengths) would come back to run 3rd and 2nd at the open 30K claiming level at Belmont in his next two starts.


As for older female N3X alw winner Propitiate. She would go on to make over 200K in her career and be three-time Graded Stakes placed... but she would only finish 3rd in an alw next out and her clear win would rate below par for the class level. The 2nd place finisher Abold Dame would run 4th in an alw next out...she did become a stakes winner a few months later. 3rd place finisher Shirley The Queen had been 2nd in the Cicada Stakes two months earlier -- she would run 4th in an ALW at the same level next out.

Finally, 13-length Peter Pan winner Coastal. He was a wildly underrated and extremely fast 3-year-old. He won the Belmont Stakes next out. Crushed the undefeated Private Account despite carrying 12lbs more in the Dwyer. And took the Grade 1 Monmouth Invitational under 127lbs by a clear margin to go 6-for-6 with all clear margin wins to start his 3yo season.

Lucy's Axe (2nd by 13 lengths) would win a stakes race next out. He won the Rebel Stakes earlier in the year over Tunerup. He would win a Grade 3 a few races later. Consistant with a par 2nd place finisher for a race like the Peter Pan.

Pianist (3rd by 14.25 lengths) would run 2nd in an ALW race next out and finish 3rd in the Jim Dandy. Consistant with a par 3rd place finisher for a race like the Peter Pan.

Projected figures for this day:

Peat Moss: 101
Debtor's Haven: 92
Lancer's Pride: 85
Framarco: 81


Propitiate: 85
Abold Dame: 79
Shirley The Queen: 78


Coastal: 122
Lucy's Axe: 101
Pianist: 99

It's takes a hell of a lot longer to explain them than to actually do them. But, that's basically the whole entire process I use for making historical projections of figures.

Doug,

This is very cool. Beyond the projections of pars, what are you using to project the speed of the track on any particular day?

(And Haskin agrees with you that Coastal is under-appreciated.)

Don't we need Jerry Brown and a doobie in this conversation, so he can explain how the tracks have changed so much since 1979? One of two things have happened, either the tracks have gotten deeper(not safer) or the drugs were STRONGER 40 years ago, which I dont buy. I dont think the drugs were better and I doubt the breed has become less refined(slower) from breeding my guess is the tracks are much deeper. But then again I am wrong about everything.lol

Everything else you would use to project the speed of the track on yesterday's results. Parallel time charts, beaten length adjustments, etc.


Coastal ran nine times as a 3-year-old. He had a record of 9-6-1-2 and pretty much lived in the 117-to-124 Beyer range... and did that while facing some of the absolute toughest competition of any 3-year-old in history.

Two of his three defeats came to the older horse Affirmed (at peak form) and one of them to Spectacular Bid.

Coastal had a big closing kick as well...and could stay any distance (won the Tyro at 5.5 furlongs, won the Belmont at 12fs) and he could also handle a wet racetrack.

Jerry Browns figures are not tied to pars in any way.

He has 10K claimers now running faster than great horses like Alysheba and Sunday Silence.

Horses have become SIGNIFICANTLY faster at all class levels on his figures.

On Beyer figures -- they're becoming a little slower...but by using pars from today you'll get figures a lot more consistant for where they're at now.

133 from Gun Bow was the fastest I've ever had using todays pars.

is there a reason you do figures for old races? just a hobby?

I just do them for top class old horses. They tell you a whole lot of things. You really can't talk about any of those horses until you do it.

Ever do one for Man O'War, Doug?

Secretariat's Belmont?

Other than Man O' War's Belmont - I could not find a sensationally fast race of his. His Preakness was not fast. His Travers was not fast at all. His Belmont was in the low 120's.

Dr. Fager - Washington Park Handicap?

125 in the Ky Derby, 123 in the Preakness, and 128 in the Belmont.

Don't have enough information available on-line to attempt that one.

Would need to be at the Keeneland library.

Count Fleet.

He was sensationally fast as a 2yo. Whirlaway and Citation were both slower 2yo's but very clearly faster as a 3yo.

It's been documented that he took advantage of a bias -- but General Assembley's Travers was one of the fastest figures ever from a 3yo.

He won the Travers by 15 lengnths over a wet racetrack -- in a track record time that still stands at Saratoga today.

* Smarten (off of 6 straight clear wins - 5 of which at the Graded Stakes level - and often giving weight) was 2nd by 15 lengths. He came back with five straight Graded Stakes placings in his next five starts.




* Private Account (a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner. Famously sired two hall-of-famers in Personal Ensign and Inside Information -- and was one of the great broodmare sires I've ever seen) was 3rd by 26 lengths.




* Davona Dale (A champion filly who won 5 Grade 1's that year and won the Kentucky Oaks by 4.5 lengths in 1:47.20 in her other sloppy track start that season) was 4th by 28.75 lengths. She was beaten 3.5 lengths in the Maskette next out.

* Steady Growth (The Queen's Plate winner and a next out 2nd in the Prince of Wales one week later) King Green (a next out ALW winner at Belmont a few weeks later) and Screen King (multiple Graded Stakes winner, never ran again) --- this trio was all beaten 30+ lengths.


General Assembly 128
Smarten 107
Private Account 91
Davona Dale 87

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ok1e0Yez_s

Dougie..

Pull out Gen. Duke & Bold Ruler's races v. one another from FL in late winter '57. Everglades, Bahamas, Flamingo, FL Derby.

Should be a pip.

I have always wondered what The Bid's Beyers would be. Have you ever calculated the beyers for the Bid

I'm pretty sure I've already done some of them from that year. Will have to look through my notebook I was using and find them when I get the time.

Not clear.