Derby Trail Forums - 1/27: Gulfstream Park (6th-10th)

$20k C/O at Aqueduct Friday thanks in part to $30.80 6th race winner Troninthirteen, the Mike Hushion trainee named for owner John Nerud's prospective 100th birthday next year! I left the Van Nistelrooy homebred off the P4 ticket as my Best Value third choice, but at 14-1 from a 6-1 morning line, he was a crazy overlay and a cover win bet on him made the day more than OK. Even if 'Tron' had been on the quad play the bet would have gone south when nightcap fave Tycoon Cat casually walked out of the gate and changed the complexion of the race that went to improbable Trinity Warrior (12-1). There is also a carryover at Santa Anita later ($55k). National Handicapping Championship starts today in Las Vegas with nearly 500 punters ready to scramble for $1,000,000. Here is the list of mandatory races for Friday:

1. GP 3
2. TAM 6
3. AQU 7
4. GP 9
5. SA 3
6. FG 9
7. OP 9
8. SA 7

Good sequence for the P5 at Gulfstream today ahead of a fun weekend that includes the 'Luck' P6 as part of the Sunshine Millions cards at GP & SA, the Holy Bull Sunday and the premiere of David Milch's racing opus on HBO!

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/C, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Not really a betting opportunity but well worth watching as filly Groupie Doll preps for the Sabin against the boys including rounding-into-shape Boys at Toscanova..

Most Likely: #2 Boys at Toscanova 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #3 Groupie Doll 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 El Kingdom 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Our Dark Knight 4-1 4th

6th: OC/N1X, D&M-4+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Table Three Ten 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Polish Tune 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Soft Whisper 6-1 4th

7th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T/36' (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Cascina couldn't find a better field if she's going to get a diploma dropping down. Horses from the AE list are the threats should ANY draw in. Brownlee filly #8 Smart Spin (15-1) from J D Farms may be a little clever and useful at the big price..

Most Likely: #5 Cascina 3-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Smart Spin 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Daniela's Flower 12-1 12th
Super Add: #12 Dixie Darling 4-1 9th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/96' (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Orangeblackandgold 5-1
Next Best: #4 Appella's Wonder 4-1
Best Value: #6 Aquifolia 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 Our Delight 3-1

9th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T/36' (DD, Super)

Part of the NHC mandatory race lineup and a terrific set. Respect the obvious faves, but use prices liberally because Unaccountable or Gaelic Storm don't have to win. Would like 20-1 Green Bluff SCRATCHED even more if this was on the outer course, but trust Solis to work out something if Farro has him ready to run best..

Most Likely: #7 Gaelic Storm 2-1
Next Best: #3 Unaccountable 4-1
Best Value: #8 Slambino 15-1
Exotics Use: #4 David D 10-1

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Yikes. This is some bad bunch o' coconuts. You're obliged to look elsewhere than the 2nd-4th place finishers of the 1/5 edition of this event..

Best Value: #2 Rainbow Road 8-1
Next Best: #9 Petite Jessie 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Miss Anfield 6-1
Super Add: #10 Anthensome 5-2
Hi-5 Play: #6 Lucky and Sweet 3-1

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-5-7
7: 5
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 3-4-7-8-9-11
10: 2-9

3x1x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-8
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6
9: 3-4-7-8-9-11
10: 2-9

2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve