Derby Trail Forums - 1/21: Gulfstream (6th-11th); Fair Grounds (4th-11th)

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T/108' (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Some attractive options at bonus totes here. Animal Kingdom full brother Thursby tries to get moving in right direction. Potentially a big day for Team Valor with Crimson China in the 4th, Vamos a Ver in the 8th and the top pair in the 3yo turf stake Kitten's Joy later..

Best Value: #6 Coach Royal 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Godard 8-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Punctual Jeff 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Saturnus 8-1 8th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

A less-engaging than expected 3yo ALW. Not much speed here, so if Juan Leyva can take control, there's a chance Rev It Up wires them. Lone speed is the first scenario you look for in 7f races. Andy Serling taught me that 15 years ago..

NOTE: Original top tab (Best Value: #1 Rev It Up 8-10) has SCR'd

Most Likely: #6 Angel's Tune 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Tarpy's Goal 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #5 Rex's Last Tour 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Dangerous Trick 6-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 12f-T/48' (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Chess match with favored Gondorf inside and trying to take them the trip under Contreras. Gets subtle class relief too from good McKnight and straight N1X tries since coming south. Navy Wings (20-1) an interesting price idea under Kent D. who is very under-rated pilot turf routing. Why is Pletcher running the Maiden in here? Crying for the added ground and no MDN race likely this distance I guess?

Most Likely: #1 Gondorf 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Navy Wings 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Seaside Retreat 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Vamos a Ver 4-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Mostly un-raced set with some solid pedigrees. Storm On the Loose from sharp Catalano is a half to Riley Tucker. Liberty Bound dropped by fleet Larry Jones trainee Hello Liberty who won the G2 Nassau in '06 ahead of placement behind Bushfire in the G1 Acorn..

Best Value: #7 Storm On the Loose 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Chosen Heir 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Nonno's Boy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Z Vilna 6-1 2nd

10th: 13th Kitten's Joy, 3yo, 8.5f-T/108' (DD, Super)

Feels like the top choices are simply best here..

Most Likely: #5 Lucky Chappy 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Cozzetti 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Howe Great 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Italo 4-2 5th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/48' (Super, Super Hi-5)

Ugly end to good sequence. Perhaps half of this field can win at a glance and another 3-4 have jump-up potential and be aware of #13 English Beauty should she draw in of AE's..

Most Likely: #8 Sheerflakesofgold 6-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Green Tea Icecream 8-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Ainsley 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Morediamondsplease 7-2 5th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Imperial Strike 4-1 WON ($11.00)

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 3-4-5-6
8: 1-5
9: 3-7
10: 5-6
11: 4-8-12

4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-5-9
9: 1-2-3-7-8-9
10: 5-6
11: 4-8-12

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 27th Gaudin, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cash Refund 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Gantry 9-5 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #3 Mambo Galliano 8-1 4th

5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Sporting Holiday 6-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Albin 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Atom Splitter 9-2 6th
Super Add: #9 Meldrick 8-1 2nd

6th: 20th Silverbulletday, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

All eyes on Stall's Applauding trying to convert brilliance into two turn aptitude.. SCRATCHED..

Most Likely: #6 Summer Applause 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Inny Minnie 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Yvete Sangalo 12-1 5th

7th: 26th Col. Bradley (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Suntracer 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Dubious Miss 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Lonesome Street 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Mr. Vegas 9-2 WON ($12.40)

8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Proper Empire 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Donoharm 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Congenial 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Atlantic Titan 20-1 WON ($64.20)

9th: 66th Louisiana H., 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Thiskyhasnolimit 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #4 Fast Alex 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Gleam of Hope 6-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Alma d'Oro 3-1 3rd

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 2-3-8-9
6: 6
7: 2-4-6
8: 1-5-6
9: 2-4-6-9

4x1x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

10th: 47th Pan Zareta, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wild About Marie 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #13 Inspired 10-1 WON ($32.80)
Next Best: #10 Flash Mash 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Rapport 5-1 DNF

11th: 68th Lecomte (G3), 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched though non-descript group start the road to the rich LA Derby. Waiting for word from Bernie Flint regarding Exfactor's inclusion after he kicked his stall earlier this week and became iffy for today's event. Suggest using as many as you can afford in the P4..

Most Likely: #2e Zayat entry 6-1 2nd/4th
Best Value: #3 Ted's Folly 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Mr. Bowling 8-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #11 Shared Property 4-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-6
9: 2-4-6-8
10: 5-13
11: 2-3-4-5-8-11

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve