1/7: Aqueduct (P4); Gulfstream (5th-11th); Santa Anita (Stakes, MSW)
 

Interesting afternoon at NY and FL Friday with chalky Aqueduct quad coming in and lucrative Gulfstream P4 proving achingly elusive. Fun afternoon of racing ahead. More later but off to Schenectady now for "Loose on the Lead" on CapOTB TV-12 with Graham Motion and Eoin Harty visiting..


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Butler Cabin 4-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Troponin 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Copper Forest 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Revelator 6-1 5th


7th: 39th Busanda, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Doesn't feel like there is much mystery to this. Could Motion, KMc and Contessa fill the triples in both of these stakes?

Most Likely: #1 Sweet Seventeen 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bourbonstreetgirl 7-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Captivating Lass 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #7 Terralba 10-1 4th


8th: 37th Count Fleet, 3yo, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Quirky little running of this with three inside runners all stretching out around 2 turns for the first time. If left to themselves, there is a possibility that some combination of them utilize typically slick strip to take field a long way. Contessa Speightstown rig may get first run, a situation in which pesky Cohen is handy. Dominguez gets Godolphin BC Juvy disappointment Alpha and is the right guy to get Bernardini colt back to in-touch-with-field trip, but 4-5 is a little tough to take. Can't discount Motion's Shackleford sib Stephanoatsee in thiss pot either. Fun edition of this kickoff towards the Wood Memorial..

Best Value: #6 Speightscity 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Alpha 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Stephanoatsee 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 How Do I Win 12-1 4th


9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tannery Town 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Brechin 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Exciting Missle 20-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Late SCR


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5
7: 1-3-5
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6
9: 1-4

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/12' (P3, DD, Super)

Race certainly goes through Pletcher-Werthheimer bay miss Medolina, but hard not to wonder about upside of Joe Shields' homebred Game Fair from Motion out of owner's MGSW mare Passing Shot. A forgotten contemporary of Sightseek, You, Storm Flag Flying and Wild Spirit, the A.P. Indy daughter won '03 Personal Ensign as part of a $600k career but seems to be having a difficult time carrying foals with Game Fair only her 2nd registered drop..

Most Likely: #3 Medolina 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Game Fair 5-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Ten K Cat 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Personally Yours 8-1 6th


6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Plenty of early sophs with upside here and a bit of a conundrum with 4 firsters and 5 second time starters among them..

Most Likely: #6 Teeth of the Dog 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Twill Be 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Unbridled Minister 4-1 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Thessalonian 8-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

$59k P5 carryover starts here and race will be closely scrutinized with presence of ultra-impressive debut winners Discreet Dancer and One Sock Down..

Most Likely: #9 Discreet Dancer 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #4 One Sock Down 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Two Is to Many 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 In the Beat 8-1 7th


8th: CLM, 4+, 9f-T/72' (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Mean Sax 8-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Chosen Empire 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Very Fair 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Navy Wings 30-1 7th


9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

As discussed with Mike Welsch and Gus Alonso Friday on ATR, a deep and treacherous seven-eighths heat that doesn't allow for a multi-race breather ahead of 14 horse feature that follows. Adding to the difficulty is 10+ month returnees Golden Moka, Latigo Shore and Admiral Perry. And note that only Close It Out is lone participant that has seen GP winner's circle..

Best Value: #7 Strike Ahead 10-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Shrewd One 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Close It Out 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Admiral Perry 6-1 5th


10th: 12th Marshua's River (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/72' (DD, Super)

This is some deep group for $100,000. Daveron and Tapitsfly less than 2 lengths apart when 1-2 in Ballston Spa and could see this coming down to the same pair again today. Daveron purchased by Mrs. Weber for Live Oak broodmare band, but win here would be a nice send off. Four year old Louvakhova and 5yo La Reine Lionne have potential to be division forces in '12. Casse's Elusive love is going to be lost on the board and has chance to juice exotics..

Most Likely: #3 Daveron 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 La Reine Lionne 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Louvakhova 4-1 12th
Exotics Use: #10 Tapitsfly 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Elusive Love 12-1 7th


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-T/12' (Super, Super Hi-5)

$27k Super Hi-5 carryover here and for third day in a row an uber-contentious turf test..

Best Value: #9 Slinger 12-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Apse 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Turkish 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Cars and Trucks 3-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Age of Exploration 12-1 WON ($13.00)


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 4-9
8: 1-7-8-9
9: 7-8
10: 3-6-9
11: 3-6-9

2x4x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-7-8-9
9: 7-8
10: 3-6-9
11: 3-4-6-8-9-10

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: 12th Sham (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Santa Anita Derby Trail starts here, and while Secret Circle is the likely winner today, the horse to be keeping tabs on is Harty's Out of Bounds. By Discreet Cat out of MGSW Unbridled Elaine and a half to GSW Etched, the 17 hand head-turner should get better and better with experience and added ground..

Most Likely: #4 Secret Circle 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Hierro 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Out of Bounds 5-1 WON ($22.60)


6th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Almost certain to be a productive group with 6 firsters including $1,000,000 Welter Weight (Bolton/Stonestreet) and already seen Consulado (Puype), Bobby Flay (Baffert) and Congrats Ski (Walsh) exiting well-regarded heat won by Tenacious Thomas..

Best Value: #5 Congrats Ski 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Consulado 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Welter Weight 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Bobby Flay 5-1 5th


8th: 75th San Pasqual (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tweebster 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Massone 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Tres Borrachos 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Uh Oh Bango 9-2 WON ($16.00)


Good luck!
Steve

Aqueduct changes include Stephanoatsee being delineated a ridgling... That means there are 3 rigs in the Count Fleet with How Do I Win and Speightcity already known. Anyone recall seeing 3 ridglings listed in one race?

Does a horse being delineated a ridgling have any consideration to your handicapping?

How Copper Forest doesn't go by Merlin Bay in the Big A 6th is beyond me. :zz:

That was some kind of ride by Curatolo in the 6th.

I am amazed that he is up for consideration as top apprentice and that he continues to get quality mounts, incredibly overrated apprentice.

No.

Thanks, Steve, I didn't think so. I guess it must be important to somebody since they always announce it, but I have never seen any significance to it. Good Luck today!

I argued with Seth today that as Flying Zee's contract rider, Curatolo was locked into a percentage of quality mounts that a typical bug would not get and a lot of wins and earnings came his way by osmosis. I think he's likely to win now in light of this ridiculous re-vote for Apprentice. I voted for Ortiz #1, C.J. McMahon #2 and Montanez #3.

I am 100% with you on Ortiz and a bit surprised he didn't get in the top 3, I think he is not only the best of the 4 right now, but will turn out to be the best rider of all of them.

Keyed 9-1 Mean Sax in GP 8 with the 1-2-8-9..



Bleech...

I guess we don't have to wait for Out of Bounds to mature! Sweeeet..

Where did that 5 come from? I thought my 6/10 exacta was home free?

GP pic 6 has a good chance of being hit today

tx alive to 2,3,4,6,8,10

Was rooting for our Toy Cannon partner Paul Pompa with La Reine... Tough beat all round. Winner made up tons of ground in those last jumps.

Pick 6 ($414k) and Pick 5 ($256k) both go down as the #10 wins it.

Wild numbers at GP..

Pick 6 (2/9/12/10/5/10) Paid $414,166
Pick 5 (9/12/10/5/10) Paid $236,144
Pick 4 (12/10/5/10) Paid $53,498
Hi-5 (10-4-5-6-3) Paid $53,471