Derby Trail Forums - 12/26: Santa Anita (Opening Day; 1st-9th)

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and are ready for the best unopened present.. Meet Kick Off at Santa Anita!

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Cal Breeders Ch., 2yo-F, 7f (.50 P5, P4, Place Pick All, DD, Super)

Much more competitive than 6-5 on Ismene might indicate. Both Tangerine Tickle and Belloma -- second timers after quality debut wins -- can jump up at 6-1..

Best Value: #1 Tangerine Tickle 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Ismene 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Belloma 6-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Willa B Awesome 5-2 2nd

2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Zapeye 4-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Trando's Tremor 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Street Titan 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 What a Rush 4-1 WON ($8.00)

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Regular readers know my tendency is to look elsewhere when a horse like Midnight Transfer (3-1) -- short priced with 0-fer a handful -- is involved. In this case, I'll give Gaines' Hard Spun colt a chance to get it done off sequence of nice works during freshener. Mandella returns Unmarked Bills (6-1), half to Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) and doomed Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) and Posse son may improve significantly with bow under belt. (Mandella 20% W's, 58% ITM with 2nd out 2yo's). Pair of Baffert firsters look serious off series of sharp drills with Lasso getting Martin Garcia and Bernster Rafael Bejarano. Bernster is a full to Cal sire Marino Marini who was nipped a head by Southern Image in the Malibu 8 years ago today..

Most Likely: #5 Midnight Transfer 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #8 Bernster 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Lasso 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Coaltown Cat 6-1 4th

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Quirky starter group..

Most Likely: #5 Panther's Claw 4-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Personalitry 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Sanibel Sid 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 El Tango Rey 6-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fiarano 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Doubledown On Ten 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 American Blend 6-1 WON ($23.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Octane 6-1 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-5-6
2: 4
3: 3-5-8
4: 2-5-7-10
5: 6-10

3x1x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

The great Kelly Leak on hand for Santa Anita Opening Day festivities! This is an excellent group for $25k and with Mr. Commons ultra likely in the Sir Beaufort, you may want to spread as wide as possible here to start the P4. I'll add #3 Achak (9-2) to the quad play..

Best Value: #1 Rainbow Goose 15-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Mr. Bossy Pants 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #9 El Merito 9-2 9th
Super Add: #11 Kelly Leak 4-1 6th

7th: Cal Breeders Ch., 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Passing Game 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Stoney Fleece 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Motown Men 7-2 7th
Super Add: #4 Johnny Be Mine 4-1 4th

8th: 12th Sir Beaufort (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Mr. Commons takes what can only be described as a major class drop off BC Mile..

Most Likely: #4 Mr. Commons 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #6 Irish Art 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ultimate Eagle 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Venomous 4-1 5th

9th: 60th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Fascinating set for this final G1 for 3yo boys. With a well-matched group lined up of mostly sprint sorts, play out a scenario in your mind and bet it that way using the best price(s). There's at least 6 here that take little imagination to see in the winner's circle..

Most Likely: #4 Rothko 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Associate 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 The Factor 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Centralinteligence 8-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Hoorayforhollywood 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5-9-11
7: 2-5-7
8: 4
9: 2-4-6-9-11

5x3x1x5 = 75 x .50 = $37.50 (Play twice for $75)

Good luck!
Steve