Derby Trail Forums - 11/26: Aqueduct ($30k C/O); Churchill Downs (3rd-4th; 8th-12th)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Great start to fun carryover sequence with half brother to To Honor and Serve (Common Bond) and Borrego (Soul of Borrego) among these juvies..

Most Likely: #3 Common Bond 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Thessalonian 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ventura Bar 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Junebugred 12-1 WON ($19.40)

6th: 90th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Tough to get creative here with top three choices looking simply better than the price options..

Most Likely: #9 Indyniable 4-1 10th
Next Best: #1e Live Oak entry 7-2 4th/6th
Exotics Use: #8 Disposablepleasure 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #4 Wildcat's Smile 8-1 2nd

7th: 98th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This set of juvy lads is a bit more intriguing than the filly counterpart with son of Catinca (Managed Account) well-priced coming in. Stephanoatsee is out of the magical mare Oatsee who counts Shackleford, Baghdaria and Lady Joanne among her foals and Souper Speedy is yet another stake candidate on the day for Mrs. Weber's Live Oak Plantation as a homebred half to Brilliant Speed..

Best Value: #7 Managed Account 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Stephanoatsee 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Souper Speedy 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 El Padrino 7-2 3rd

8th: 23rd Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Should one of the entrymates win the Demoiselle and Souper Speedy the Remsen, Mrs. Weber could find herself in an unprecedented position with a To Honor and Serve victory here. Would be shocked if any owner has ever won three straight graded stakes events in a row in New York..

Most Likely: #5 To Honor and Serve 7-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #1e Pletcher-Repole entry 5-2 3rd/5th
Next Best: #4 Hymm Book 8-1 2nd

9th: 116th Gazelle (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super)

As nice as it would be for Awesome Feather to hold it together for a final race and retire undefeated, she is a complete play-against at a short price. Team Todd looks pretty imposing here with three very capable soph gals attacking this historic event. Note there is plenty of pace pressure involved here and that could open the door for closing New York bred Miss Valentine at a healthy number. Excellent assembly..

Most Likely: #2 R Gypsy Gold 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Miss Valentine 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Savvy Supreme 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Love and Pride 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Draw It 6-1 2nd

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fortissi More 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #1 Stephen's Revenge 10-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Living Right 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Barrel of Love 12-1 7th

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-7-8
6: 1-8-9
7: 1-2-6-7
8: 5
9: 1-2
10: 6

4x3x4x1x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-6-7
8: 1-5
9: 1-2-5-6-8
10: 1-6-7

4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 STEVIE JONES 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Untethered 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Santonio d'Oro 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Picky Picky 12-1 4th

4th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Givhans Ferry 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Best of Times 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 California Gal 12-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Soft Whisper 3-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Sherp 3-1 5th
Best Value: #12 Brown Eyed Jozi 10-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #1 Voodoo Daddy 2-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Forever Faithful 8-1 2nd

9th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously well-matched group. I'm using 6 in multis..

Best Value: #3 Spirited Miss 6-1 10th
Next Best: #6 On Fire Baby 3-1 ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Glinda the Good 5-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Karlovy Vary 8-1 7th

10th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Daddy Nose Best 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #10 Leatherwood 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Pacific Nights 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Magical Season 8-1 7th

11th: KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Ever So Lucky ran a monstrously big debut and young horses frequently regress off that kind of performance. Worthy fave but not without question marks stretching out on 15 days turnaround..

Most Likely: #1 Ever So Lucky 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Gemologist 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #8 Atigun 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Timely Tally 10-1 3rd

12th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Ender Knievel 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 In Jeopardy 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Big John B 3-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Bridge Loan 4-1 6th

<$200 P5 Play:

8: 1-5-12
9: 3-6-8-9-10-11
10: 3-4-7-10
11: 1-9
12: 8

3x6x4x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-6-8-9-10-11
10: 3-4-7-10
11: 1-8-9
12: 5-8

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve