Derby Trail Forums - 11/20: Aqueduct ($33k C/O)

My apologies for taking a handicapping pass Saturday, but I wasn't happy with the feel I had for the action and didn't want to provide luke warm opinions as a result. One horse that I did talk about on ATR and "Loose on the Lead" was Sabercat and I was certainly pleased by his performance in the Delta Jackpot after lauding the Asmussen colt since Breeders' Cup. I was struck thinking about the win by the difference an in-person/physical impression can make on one's opinion. On paper coming into the Breeders’ Cup, Sabercat wasn’t a horse I was remotely interested in as a 2yo with impact. But seeing him gallop every day at Churchill and then work really well the Sunday before Cup opened me to his potential. I believe that only ATR listeners and Derby Trail members knew what happened with him and a colic episode pre-Cup as it went totally unreported. In addition, based on thoughts you heard directly from Steve Asmussen and Scott Blasi on ATR, you should have felt good about his possibilities in the $1,000,000 affair Saturday at DeD... Fold in a generous 8-1 price and you had a recipe for a nice hit. Hope many played him and did well. There is a $33k carryover at Aqueduct today on a very good card as well as a $70k C/O at Hollywood.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$33k P6 C/O starts here..

Very nice group and a tricky way to have to start the carry sequence. .

Most Likely: #1 San Pablo 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #3 Mine Over Matter 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Trulee Scrappin 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Viscount 8-1 2nd

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Another good group with many here capable on best including 20-1 Majestic Raffy who was within 1.5L of 6-1 Sky Blue Pink in October and seems to love this course owning 3/2-0-0 mark. Cleared NY-N1X last time from 12 hole under Abel Lezcano and has been consistant check earner all year. Great betting affair..

Most Likely: #5 Precious Metal 7-2 8th
Best Value: #11 Majestic Raffy 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Westside Corral 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #12 Hear the Footsteps 8-1 11th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

1st and 2nd time starting Empire bred 2yo's. Kind of a crapshoot..

Best Value: #10 Kid Blast 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Officerandafoose 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Half Nelson 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #3 Timothy's Boy 8-1 10th

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bourbonology 4-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Robinia 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #2 Raffie's Chance 12-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Lemon Splendor 5-1 3rd

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Inclined to play against 3-1 favored Bound by Humor at the low tote when he needs to improve to contend..

Most Likely: #2 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #7 Coaltown Legend 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Raynick's Jet 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Bound by Humor 3-1 4th

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Idle American 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #9 Sam's Buck 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Polaris Dream 15-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Windaful 5-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-6
5: 4-5-11
6: 1-2-3-10
7: 4-7
8: 2
9: 1

4x3x4x2x1x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (1,2,5/4,13,14,15,16/2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13) Paid $394.00
$2 Pick 6 (1,2,5/4,13,14,15,16/2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13) Paid $10.40 (5OF6) X 9 = $93.60

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-9-10
7: 4-7
8: 1-2-4-6-7
9: 1-5-9

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13) Paid $40.85

Good luck!
Steve