BC races for winning longshot and/or vulnerable favorite loses
 

the bc FnM turf and the BC turf for me so far look like races where a good longshot might come in, also in the Mile. In the past I normally would of been all goo goo over the Euros but this year im not seeing it that way.

Also in the Juvy sprint Bafferts horse looks to be a free square but if he doesnt take to the CD surface for any reason a nice price could come in there.

I'm concerned that the CA horses will have a hard time adjusting to CD. More specifically SA based horses. Turbulent Descent has been exclusively at HP.

Why?

I've seen that happen before on sloppy tracks -- but if the track is fast I doubt - generally speaking - they will have any trouble adjusting and running their races. Dirt is dirt.

SA is rock hard and the horses basically skim over it. There is no "dig in." That is not the case with the dirt at CD. Maybe I'm paranoid....

I'm a little concerned for this as well, because it seems as I look over these races I'm liking a lot of the horses coming out of Cali and specifically Santa Anita. I'd like to think that yes, dirt is dirt, but then again... I was a sucker for Midnight Interlude in the Derby. In the end, if I think they're good enough it's not gonna stop me just because they came out of SA. I'd like to think each horse can individually handle or not handle the surface.

its valid, thats why im not totally sold on some of these socal runners I love. Especially the Baffert runners

Turbulent Descent. She's good, but I like 2 others just as much.

The Turf Sprint - The logical horses drew outside and will still be bet. The key race is the October 8th 5th race at Keeneland. Four are coming out of that one and I give all but Great Attack big shots (Perfect Officer, Country Day and Havelock). I also give Regally Ready and Hoofit (if he goes at near his 15 - 1 m/l he's a steal) shots. That is a large group of five but there is a mix short and long prices here and with money going to two former champs and Carcortodo this other group may float up. I will be using these 5 in multi race (part of the early Saturday Pick 4/pick 3s and doubles) bets and verticals.

The Dirt Mile - no one should take a short price of any of these as only one (Jersey Town) has won a race at a flat mile this year. So toss the two m/l favorites Trappe Shot and The Factor. A couple of interesting ones here look to be Wilbur and Tapizar and I will build around them. Generally speaking keep tabs on Mott and Asmussen's runners as each looks to be coming into the races ready and may offer value.

The F & M Turf - With the top European females headed to the Turf, the North American runners may have a shot. Although Stacelita will be tough, Dubawi Heights will get things her own way and the Motion horses are always ready the one I am looking at for value is Perfect Shirl. In her last she ran a TG number that matched the m/l favorite, finished 1/2 length behind next out winner Never Retreat and 3 lengths ahead of next out winner Miss Keller. I am concerned about pace as she needs to close into it but when Attfield decided to send Miss Keller to WO and this one here I'm sure he knew what he was doing. 30 - 1 m/l and my guess is go off at more like 45 - 1.

How is Santa Anita's surface now relative to other years when they had a proper dirt track?

Aside from that, none of the Santa Anita horses that are going to the BC have run exclusively at Santa Anita, thus they already have racing form over other dirt surfaces.

Then again, Game On Dude has only won this year at Santa Anita despite running at 5 different tracks during his campaign.

I agree with you here. This 30-1 shot is far from hopeless. And while her previous effort at the distance was dreadful it's not an issue- her half brother was a monster. And even better, she gets JV, who has a great record for Attfield. I'll try to get her in the super.

Turbulent Descent at 6-5 is a joke. Her Test was outstanding, but other than that she hasn't done anything special, and she's got too many layoff lines in her form for me to trust her at a short price. I'd even take Switch or Pomeroys Pistol over her at even odds, and I think several others have legitimate chances in that race.

I think Misty For Me has a big shot to steal the F&M Turf on the lead, even from the 12-hole.

Haven't looked at Saturday yet.

Totally agree on Misty(no mush). Look at that Group 1 resume! Add a little American juice, in order to get loose!

Longshot Play
 

In the BC Juv Turf race 4 Saturday my longshot selection is #11 Excaper. Finale just beat him in September by 3/4. At 30-1 I am going to take an exacta flyer first and second with him and several others in this race.

I'm going with Jake mo in the Juvy Sprint.

After setting a new track record going 5-1/2 furlongs in a stakes at Prairie Meadows in July, they pointed to this race.

Several horses that he beat in his Maiden win and in his stakes win have come back to win impressively (albeit, at lesser tracks like Remington, Hoosier and Mountaineer).

His prep for this in the Kip Deville stakes was a tossout, as he got a peculiar ride and was wide most of the way.

2nd off a layoff, I expect him to be much sharper tomorrow. He should be able to lay just off the speed and make a run late. He may not be able to overcome Secret Circle, but I'm counting on him being in the tri, at a price that should be every bit of 20-1.

Yeah buddy!!!

Congrats on your superfecta hit!!! over 20k!!!!!