Derby Trail Forums - 10/22: Belmont Park (NY Showcase Day)

Coming to you from Willoughby, OH as I make my way to Louisville for ATR's two week coverage of Breeders' Cup, the 4th I will have attended at Churchill ('00, '06, '10). Want to get underway southbound to be able to enjoy the good card at Belmont with the NY Showcase stakes making for a fun afternoon of wagering. Elsewhere, Hawthorne features the Illini bred fall stakes slate, Laurel returns the DeFrancis Dash and Keeneland offers a nice sequence anchored by the G2 Raven Run where I want to try #5 Funny Sunny (10-1). Talk to you Monday from Churchill Downs.. Enjoy the weekend!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

At 3-1, Bud White on the turf has no appeal. Look elsewhere..

Best Value: #11 Living Right 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Fortissi More 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Gamblin Fever 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Artie Luvsto Party 15-1 12th

2nd: 33rd Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Lovely Lil OK, but 8-5 a little heavy-handed..

Best Value: #9 Spa City Princess 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Lovely Lil 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Nicole's Miss El 12-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Risky Rachel 5-2 WON ($7.50)

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Of those that have run, Flea Flicker obviously stands out, and Pat Kelly's Paws Up is the first foal out of Fox Ridge's excellent SW Homerette. Among the firsters, note eye-opening $200k at OBS for the Kafwain ($5k fee) miss Peggy Jane, which was 9th most expensive purchase overall and 5th highest among fillies..

Most Likely: #7 Hot Splash 5-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Appealetta 15-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Flea Flicker 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: 12 Peggy Jane 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Paws Up 30-1 10th

4th: 18th Bongard-NY, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Flying Zee entry 2-1 (#1x The Prize Fighter preferred) WON ($4.60)/3rd/4th/12th
Best Value: #3 Ganador 12-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Jaw Crusher 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tug of War 30-1 5th (3rd for wagering)

5th: MSW-NY, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Ocala Queen 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Late SCR
Best Value: #8 Silver Prize 12-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Grand Savanna 20-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-8-9
3: 5-7-9-12
4: 1-3-4
5: 1/SCR-3-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 34th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Preachintothedevil 10-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Repole entry 7-2 4th/7th
Exotics Use: #9 Pretty Boy Freud 5-2 9th
Super Add: #7 General Maximus 4-1 WON ($10.40)

7th: 18th Gimma-NY, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Good race here with play against fave in girl over boys NYB Futurity winner Wildcat's Smile. Victory Island (7-2) solid but draws tricky rail slot for seven-eighths voyage, and three prices I'm using with her all look like potential winners. Have some fun here as formula is right for lucrative result..

Best Value: #11 Bellacourt 10-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #1 Victory Island 7-2 9th
Eotics Use: #9 Harbor Mist 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Newbie 8-1 11th

8th: 31st Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Hessonite 7-2 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #4 Mystic City 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Gitchee Goomie 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Rogue's Jewel 8-1 4th

9th: 36th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #3 Johannesburg Smile 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ichabad Crane 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Haynesfield 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Multi Include: #7 Inherit the Gold 5-2 7th

10th: 33rd Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Compliance Officer 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 Adirondack Summer 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Pocket Cowboys 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Minnie Punt 10-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-9-11
8: 3-4-6
9: 3-4-5-7
10: 2-5-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (11-7-4-5) Paid $116.10

Good luck!
Steve