Derby Trail Forums - 10/1: Belmont (5th-10th); Santa Anita ($60k C/O)

Big Super Saturday lineup of racing with NY, IN and CA the venues under the microscope. Weather for Belmont card an exasperating frustration, but we may muddle through OK with heaviest rain ending by morning. Turf will certainly be soft-yielding, anddoubt the non-stakes are contested on the inner or Widener. Despite scratches of Big Drama (Vos) and Sangaree (Kelso), there are more than enough stars and key matchups to keep the action compelling. At Hoosier, Shackleford and Caleb's Posse are confronted by legit up and comers in Wilburn and Populist Politics in the Indiana Derby, while at Philly, Plum Pretty looks to take it to It's Tricky in the rich Cotillion. The second day of the Santa Anita Autumn Meet delivers a $60k carryover, an added bonus on what looks like the best action of the day top to bottom highlighted by the 4 G1 events. At Laurel, the Jim McKay Maryland Million slate came up predictably contentious. Hope you're ready for a great day, and weekend, of action! Bob Baffert and David Fawkes join Seth Merrow and I on Capital OTB TV-12's "Loose on the Lead" 9-10a...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 34th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Stacelita was clear horse to be beat anyway, and she has handled off-going lawns just fine. Next three below her aren't impossible of course, but are up against it if Chad Brown miss reprises Beverly D effort..

Most Likely: #8 Stacelita 6-5
Best Value: #2 Dynaslew 10-1
Next Best: #1 Deluxe 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Emerald Beech 6-1

6th: 35th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P6, P3, DD)

This event was interesting without the question of the turf course condition, as a couple in here were capable of challenging obvious Cape Blanco. You only need to go back to Mission Approved's Manhattan stunner to appreciate the variable of a yielding or soft course..

Most Likely: #1 Cape Blanco 4-5
Next Best: #5 Winchester 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 Grassy 10-1

7th: 72nd Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Big Drama out with slight fever, which helps make Trappe Shot a much more likely winner than he was anyway..

Most Likely: #8 Trappe Shot 9-5 (Est. revised ML: 6-5)
Best Value: #3 Apriority 12-1 (Est. revised ML: 8-1)
Exotics Use: #1 Repole/Pletcher entry 10-1 (Est. revied ML: 6-1)
Super Add: #4 Euroears 4-1 (Est. revised ML: 3-1)

8th: 31st Kelso H. (G2), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Sangaree a SCR. As nice as Jackson Bend is going, hard to see how Uncle Mo doesn't control this ala the Champagne win 51 weeks ago today. Jersey Town has big efforts in him as exemplified by the Cigar win, and Goldigger's Boy is solid and constant though slower than what it will take here. Weird things happen in small fields, and I can't fault those who cover everyone to some degree in their P4 plays..

Most Likely: #3 Uncle Mo 3-5 (Est. revised ML)
Next Best: #2 Jackson Bend 7-5 (Est. revised ML)

9th: 73rd Beldame Invt. (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Even a solid move forward from Royal Delta won't be enough to win here without a misstep by Havre de Grace.

Most Likely: #5 Havre de Grace 3-5
Next Best: #2 Royal Delta 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Life at Ten 8-1

10th: 93rd Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

Lost some luster with setback scratch of Tizway, but still intriguing enough with emergent soph Stay Thirsty facing elders, for the first time. Variable of wet track situation adds further mystery as nearly everyone signed on has been adept on off tracks..

Most Likely: #1e Preston entry (Flat Out/Birdrun) 7-5
Next Best: #4 Stay Thirsty 8-5
Best Value: #6 A.U. Miner 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8 (1-3-4)
8: 2-3 (1-4)
9: 5 (2)
10: 1-4

Main: 1x2x1x2 = 4 x $10 = $40
Back-up: 4x4x2x2 = 64 x .50 = $32

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 42nd Norfolk (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Baffert/Pegram powerhouse looks like they have another special one in even money fave today..

Most Likely: #5 Drill 1-1
Best Value: #6 Basmati 6-1
Next Best: #4 Creative Cause 6-5
Super Add: #3 Ruler of Dubai 8-1

6th: 19th L:ady's Secret (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$60k P6 C/O starts here..

As wonderful as she is, this is hardly Blind Luck's 'race to lose', and I'll bet now that this event grades out as a much tougher group than appears with some liable to leap forward on new dirt surface..

Most Likely: #1 Blind Luck 6-5
Next Best: #7 Zazu 4-1
Best Value: #5 Great Hot 12-1
Exotics Use: #3 Ask the Moon 3-1

7th:30th Goodwood (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

All eyes on Coil attempting a rebound facing elder after disastrous Travers. Note the players returning to dirt off synthetic runs..

Most Likely: #2 Coil 4-1
Next Best: #8 Game On Dude 5-2
Best Value: #4 Preamble 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Awesome Gem 3-1

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding group of 11 line up here as you can SCR #12 Antidote..

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Make Believe 2-1
Best Value: #3 Utopian 12-1
Next Best: #10 Irish Art 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Quantity 8-1

9th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard group to handle with just pedigree, trainer karma and works to go on. O'Neill entrants (#3 Adonis D N A and #6 Final Vindication) have been working together inseparably. Biancone baby outside at least has an afternoon spin under the hood..

Most Likely: #9 Patriotic Lion 6-1
Best Value: #2 Sir Newcastle 12-1
Next Best: #3 Adonis D N A 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Final Vindication 3-1

10th: 35th Yellow Ribbon (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (DD, Super)

Case can be made that day's last G1 is best race anywhere on the afternoon with at least the top 5 eligible for laurels..

Best Value: #2 Cozi Rosie 4-1
Next Best: #7 Harmonius 7-2
Exotics Use: #3 Dubawi Heights 5-2
Super Add: #4 Malibu Pier 4-1

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Once in Awhile 8-1
Next Best: #11 Sweet Pleasure 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Game Charmer 6-1
Super Add: #14 Street Rat Crazy 4-1
Hi-5 Play: #6 Nana Beach 9-2

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

6: 1-7
7: 2
8: 3-5-10
9: 2-3-6-9
10: 2-3-7
11: 10

2x1x3x4x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-10
9: 2-3-6-9
10: 2-3-7
11: 8-10-11-14

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve