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-   -   9/21: Belmont Park (1st, 4th-9th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43883)

Kasept 09-21-2011 07:36 AM

9/21: Belmont Park (1st, 4th-9th)
 
BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

#6 Race to Urga is a very bad favorite at 2-1. Part of the exotics scene perhaps, but a favorite to play against with gusto..

Most Likely: #4 Miss Laa di Da 3-1 WON ($11.20)
Best Value: #8 Tutti Va Bene 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Settling Seas 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Sex Appeal 4-1 5th


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Holiday Broad 7-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Street Savy 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Yellow Boat 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #6 Edit 4-1 3rd


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Quiet Ending 8-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Wholelottashakin 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #1 Stock Fund 3-1 6th
Super Add: #5 At the Palace 10-1 7th


6th: MSW, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed Tuesday with Andy Serling, for a fall 3+ MSW, this is a very good group that features several with real upside. And be aware that AE-11 Unprecedented is a real danger at 15-1 if he gets in..

Most Likely: #5 Imagining 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #8 Dream Man 12-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Springcourt 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Colossal Gift 9-2 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Another tremendously deep and balanced group. Hard to eliminate any besides Mr. Irons as even Saginaw and Unbridled Heat, both 20-1, have turf races in their PP's that make them plausible as exotics includes..

Best Value: #6 Monument Hill 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gantry 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Unaccountable 9-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Slambino 15-1 6th


8th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cookram Rock 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Deciphering Dreams 6-1 WON ($15.40)
Best Value: #6 Prince Dubai 15-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Rocky World 15-1 6th


9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

Best Value: #14 Forever Grateful 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Karakorum Fugitive 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 More is Better 5-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Grace and Courage 8-1 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

Let's try to single Cookram Rock and catch a price in the wild 7th..

6: 2-5-6-8
7: 1-2-4-5-6-7-8-9
8: 8
9: 3-6-14

4x8x1x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 09-21-2011 10:36 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-21-2011 11:32 AM

steve i like the 4 court of dreams in the 5th to get in the money at a price..

Kasept 09-21-2011 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead (Post 808091)
steve i like the 4 court of dreams in the 5th to get in the money at a price..

SCR'd

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-21-2011 12:18 PM

saw that sorry ..

ADJMK 09-21-2011 12:31 PM

2nd: p4

all/1/3,5,7/2

Kasept 09-21-2011 01:30 PM

How is Holiday Broad 10-1 here in the 4th? 5 MTP...

Dahoss 09-21-2011 01:36 PM

Interesting horse coming up at Delaware in the 4th. Afleet Bandit is a half to Better Talk Now and BA Way. Worth a shot thinking he'll enjoy the switch to grass.

golfer 09-21-2011 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 808112)
Interesting horse coming up at Delaware in the 4th. Afleet Bandit is a half to Better Talk Now and BA Way. Worth a shot thinking he'll enjoy the switch to grass.

That interesting horse got an interesting ride. Had to have the lead why???

Dahoss 09-21-2011 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer (Post 808115)
That interesting horse got an interesting ride. Had to have the lead why???

Because I bet him?

knickslions2 09-21-2011 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 808109)
How is Holiday Broad 10-1 here in the 4th? 5 MTP...

Ya I jumped on it. Guess we all know how that turned out

Kasept 09-21-2011 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 808121)
Ya I jumped on it. Guess we all know how that turned out

Yeah. That was disappointintg. To use an Andyism, seems like "they knew'..

Dahoss 09-21-2011 02:50 PM

How many horses is John Velazquez going to stiff today?

Kasept 09-21-2011 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 808127)
How many horses is John Velazquez going to stiff today?


Kasept 09-21-2011 06:23 PM

Carryover Pool $37,767 :$:


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