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-   -   9/7: Del Mar (Closing Day/6th-10th; Futurity) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43743)

Kasept 09-07-2011 10:17 AM

9/7: Del Mar (Closing Day/6th-10th; Futurity)
 
Needed the time off but couldn't help looking at second half of the Del Mar season-ender...


DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 13th Pirate's Bounty-R, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Mensa Heat 6-1 WON-DH ($5.40)
Next Best: #4 Carbonite 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Kinsale King 8-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Square Deal 8-1 8th


7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Ruffled Feathers 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Hard to Resist 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Ela Gorrie Mou 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Laura Beasley 15-1 4th


8th: 64th Del Mar Futurity (G1), 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched set of juvies that all look like they could be 'any kind'. Favored undefeateds Majestic City and Creative Cause appear legit, but this kind of event is always subject to jump up efforts by an improving baby. Best Pal exiting types frequently impact this, and Baffert has won 9 of the last 15 of them. You read that right. 9 of 15..

Most Likely: #6 Drill 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #8 Creative Cause 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Gun Boat 8-1 4th
Super Add #5 Basmati 8-1 5th


9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Courtside 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Galleta Monstruo 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Future Covenant 15-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Domonation 8-1 3rd


10th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Swiss Charm 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Vonn Nez 6-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Coconino 30-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Elusive Charmer 5-1 WON ($9.80)
Hi-5 Play: #2 California Heat 7-2 2nd


@$50 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-8
8: 6-8
9: 2-5-9
10: 2-3-4-5-7-10

3x2x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 09-07-2011 05:13 PM

DMR SCR/CHG'S

Race 4 #5 Sporting Art
Race 5 #11 Orbach, #2 Double D's Diamond
Race 7 #11 Doctor Carina
Race 9 #6 Legal Separation, #8 Maker (ARG), #10 Master Chef
Race 10 #11 Geniality

Kasept 09-07-2011 06:36 PM

Dead Heat! With Mensa Heat..

Kasept 09-07-2011 07:15 PM

1-2 on Creative Cause? Yikes..

knickslions2 09-07-2011 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 805544)
1-2 on Creative Cause? Yikes..

5 has a shot here.

Kasept 09-07-2011 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 805546)
5 has a shot here.

Absolutely... I think there's several with a shot. The Bonde gelding (Mighty Monsoon) Pat wrote about upstairs isn't impossible at 45-1! National Turf raved about his last drill. I'm committed to narrow (6-8) in the P4 but am playing around with a bunch of them.

G/L!

Kasept 09-07-2011 07:41 PM

Need to see this again..

knickslions2 09-07-2011 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 805551)
8 should be placed 5th behind the 5.

6-4-2-5-8 would be my vote.

Dont you think 4 is going to drop

knickslions2 09-07-2011 07:45 PM

Pretty good race even though.

Kasept 09-07-2011 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 805552)
Dont you think 4 is going to drop

Didn't realize it was the 4.

MaTH716 09-07-2011 07:48 PM

It's a shame they had to Dq'd the 4, because it looked like the 8 was throwing in the towel before Bejerano had to check him out of there.

jms62 09-07-2011 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 805555)
It's a shame they had to Dq'd the 4, because it looked like the 8 was throwing in the towel before Bejerano had to check him out of there.

They had to Matt it was bad... Was a great race though.

Kasept 09-08-2011 07:14 AM

Some stupid move by me leaving Chiloquin out of the 9th & P4. Damn thing paid outrageous $643.65 for the .50 level. Uggh. Caught a piece of the dead-heat opening P3 (6th-8th) which produced $91 (for $1), but $643 with $8.20 (3rd choice), $10.40 (3rd), $8.80 (2nd) and $9.80 (2nd) winners was very generous in the season-ending quad.

Rudeboyelvis 09-08-2011 08:26 AM

Same here Steve, was kicking myself for that as well... The .50 P4 payout has been an enigma all meeting. I've seen it contain multiple 20.00+ horses to bring back less than 1K, and days like yesterday where the deepest you needed to go was to include Baffert in the Dmr Futurity ( an easy include 3rd choice in the win pool) :eek: for a mind boggling score.

I've played the whole meeting as my schedule precluded me for following the Spa as much as I would have liked, and I can say I thought the product day in and day out was competitive, fair and exceedingly generous with regard to the value offered ... From a wagering perspective, it reminded me a bit of Tampa, where there were always some gems hidden along the way for those willing to dig.

The .50 P5 with the 16% take out and no consol needs to be modeled at every track in the nation. The average payouts were exponential, and easily the most exciting bet on the menu hands down.

All in all, had a ton of fun with it and plan to follow next year's meet just as closely.


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