Derby Trail Forums - 9/1: Saratoga (Day 35; With Anticipation; $100k P6)

Fun day of racing started at 1p with Hammock winning the New York opener, and didn't end until after 8:30p when Mudville Nine topped the Del Mar nightcap. The P6's at both venues proved as challenging as anticipated, with 5 Saratoga winners receiving $57k for their efforts while only 2 California players tamed their sextet to the tune of $620k! I could only place 3 winners on either ticket, and though the big prizes proved elusive, a few nice hits brightened the afternoon on the two coasts. In the second leg at Del Mar, landing on U. C. Merced Two as a P6 single proved a godsend, as Jimmy Kasparoff's charge emerged late to score for a $25.40 win tote. The P3 with favorites in the next pair was good for nearly $150, and more than covered all of the late day action.

Earlier at the Spa, I was rolling through the card pretty neatly until the latest stages where I missed the P4 anchor leg. A few P3's kept the ledger balanced with $8.40 Alaura Michele and $7.50 Risky Rachel coming in particularly handy. Hope everyone did well and enjoyed the start of the closing weeks on the two coasts! Another 11 at the Old Spa Thursday, with the last $100k P6 guarantee and jump event of the meet on tap.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dugan 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2e (POE) Well Fashioned 5-1 8th/5th
Next Best: #3e Fisher entry 3-1 4th/7th
Exotics Use: #9 Here Comes Art 5-1 WON ($9.90)

2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Self Control 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Piscesbymoonlight 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Trolius 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Volition 10-1 7th

3rd: Ann Claire-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Victory Island 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #1e Serpe/Flying Zee entry 4-1 WON/4th ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Why Take a Chance 8-1 3rd

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Humadea 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Star Torina 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Up in Lights 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Loure 6-1 7th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 A Rod 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Jack's Work 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Skinny Peter 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Hot Pursuit 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
3: 3
4: 4-5
5: 2-3-6-8-12

7x1x2x5 = $70 ($35 for .50 and can be played twice.. or more)

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$100k Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Purses Galore 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Street Surprise 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Heather's Feather 3-1 WON ($9.30)
Super Add: #2 Star Vesta 5-1 3rd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Don't think this is his spot per se, but it is nice to see J. B.'s Thunder make it back to the races. This is a heck of a good group and a great betting opportunity. Ignore the ML numbers and bet with gusto!

Best Value: #5 Bergerac 12-1 WON ($30.40)
Next Best: #7 Prado Dash 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Lethal Combination 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Xodo 15-1 8th

8th: Island Whirl, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Note that Rule by Night is cross-entered in Saturday's Forego (G1) and will run there..

Most Likely: #6 Dark Thunder 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #4 Bank Merger 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Congressional Page 8-1 4th

9th: With Anticipation (G2), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Captain Webb 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Two Months Rent 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 State of Play 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #4 Dullahan 7-2 3rd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Toccet's Image 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Ocean Seven 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Last Empire 6-1 5th
Super Add: #13 Cosmic King 5-1 9th

11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (Super)

Oh super.. A turf sprint with 12 first or second time starters!

Most Likely: #7 Dorothy's Spirit 9-2 5th
Next Best: #11 Sweet Cat 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #2 Run a Risk 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Constantinople 6-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Peace Preserver 15-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 6-8-9
7: 5-7
8: 6
9: 1-6-7
10: 3-5
11: 7-11

3x2x1x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (8-5-6-6-11-11) 5/6 Correct Paid $158.00 x 2 = $316.00

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-6
9: 1-4-6-7
10: 3-5
11: 2-3-5-6-7-11

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve