Derby Trail Forums - 8/25: Saratoga (Day 30; NY Turf Writers Cup; $58k C/O)

Bit of an unusual day to start Travers Week as a handful of offbeat results produced bonus mutuels individually and in the multis. $51 Missysmoonlitmgic in the 2nd triggered the $7k early P4, while $54 Bigger is Bettor (Albany staggerfest upsetter) and $43 nightcap stunner Staff Sargeant set off a $58k carryover and eye-popping $31,500 late quad. I caught a couple of decent hits here and there utilizing 5-1 Majestic Hope (1st), 7-1 Eleven of Hearts (6th) and 22-1 Griffin Rock (10th), but it wasn't that great of a day by any accounting. Hope you did OK! Thursday card starts with G1 hopper event ahead of some interesting sets. Note the $35k Hi-5 carryover later in Del Mar's nightcap...

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: 70th NY Turf Writers Cup (NSA-G1), 4+, 19f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Sheppard entry 9-5
Next Best: #1e Sheppard entry 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Decoy Daddy 3-1

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Quirky group of 6 as I'm willing to believe that one or both of the firsters are OK given clever Iadisernia and sharp Trombetta (Note MCLM debut stat). 'All' in the P4 may be prudent if you can afford it..

Most Likely: #1 Thunder Lilly 5-2
Next Best: #2 Zero Yield 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Skiddles n' Bob 5-1

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Holiday Broad 5-1
Next Best: #7 Barbados Beauty 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Stay Composed 7-2
Super Add: #1 Alydarla 7-2

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Odd assembly given race condition in that none of the 7 signed on have started yet at the meet. 8-1 Bakhoor is fast enough as dirt runner and dam Gossamer, trained by Tommy Skiffington, broke her maiden and cleared N1X on the MTH turf. She has produced Allover (Spinning World), a Baffert trainee that won sprinting at first asking in 2003 ahead of an ALW win on the DMR lawn that earned a 95 Beyer, and Bachelor Duke (Miswaki) who won the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas over notable Azamour. KMc excels off layoffs, and you should get a square number..

$58k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #5 Bakhoor 8-1
Next Best: #3 Missinglisalewis 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Targhee Pass 7-2
Super Add: #2 Fire With Fire 5-2

5th: CLM, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Watching Most Happy Fella win Wednesday certainly reflects well on Awesome Review and Cinder Cone. Hurricane Heat gets the bug break and should be in the mix on the stretchout back to two turns, any area where Gary has some of his most positive trainer stats. Metrology goes to Rudy Rod on what looks like a Michael Dubb private purchase..

Most Likely: #1 Awesome Review 5-2
Next Best: #6 Cinder Cone 2-1
Exotics Use: #4 Metrology 7-2
Best Value: #2 Hurricane Heat 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: ALL
3: 2-4-7
4: 2-3-4-5
5: 1-6

6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Many P6 tix could die here. VERY difficult mix-and-match group of MDN sellers..

Best Value: #3 Exchanging Memories 12-1
Next Best: #7 Lindell A. C. 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Allen's Star 5-1
Super Add: #5 Go to the Net 10-1

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mergo Verge 5-2
Best Value: #3 August Gala 12-1
Exotics Use: #8 Pleasant Heiress 3-1
Super Add: #9 Miss Alondra 8-1

8th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Argentine Talisman, one of the keys to success for many of us this meet, returns in same spot. Note that Johnny V. opts for Chad Brown's 5-2 favorite this time around, but The Man Uptown is a major underlay rising in price and needing to improve just to contend. I'm opting for still improving Kid Curry at an attractive number, expecting a bit of a pace duel between Dual Citizen and J Isle. On that topic, it's worth noting that should either of that pair get away easy on the front end, they could be tough to reel in. Very good race in the manner $50k claimer events should be!

NOTE: J Isle has SCR'd, leaving Dual Citizen alone on the lead..

Best Value: #2 Kid Curry 6-1
Next Best: #6 Argentine Talisman 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Dual Citizen 6-1
Super Add: #1 Ahgogo 10-1

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Yowza.. An utter jumble of oddballs..

Most Likely: #10 Structural Change 4-1
Next Best: #1 Strictly Society 7-2
Best Value: #6 Tennis Racket 10-1
Super Add: #2 Zaahy 5-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 5
5: 1-2-4-6
6: 3-7
7: 5
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-6-10

1x4x2x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-7
7: 3-5
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-2-3-4-6-10

3x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve