Derby Trail Forums - 8/20: Saratoga (Day 26: Alabama; $219k C/O)

Fun afternoon Friday as day-long tension built towards our Dee Tee Stables' start by Ausable Chasm in the 9th. Things turned out well as the Hook and ladder filly ran a highly encouraging race in her turf debut off a 5 month layoff. Under Shaun Bridgmohan, Ausable finished 7th in the 9 horse agglomeration, beaten less than 3 lengths while wide the whole way. She exited the race in fine shape and could run back before Labor Day if a similar event materializes on the extras.

The rest of the day was largely uneventful frankly, and the intervention of Bwana Babe (3rd), Soinlovewithuam I (5th) and Feel What's Real (10th) busted up nearly every multi-race play. Caught one decent P3 ($111) that ended with Gitchee Goomie's Yaddo win as well as a couple exactas, but leaked easily $500 of bankroll on the day.

Big weekend with lots of opportunities ahead however, including Saturday's $219k double carryover on Alabama Day.. Hope you did OK Friday, and thanks to everyone for their well wishes for 'Sable's race! Seth Merrow and I welcome Matt Hegarty, Lenny Shulman and Kenny McPeek this morning on "Loose on the Lead" on Capital OTB-12 if you're in the region...

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Opportunity may avail itself to go against one or both of the ML choices with Cribnote returning from 1,050 days off and Green Monster going sideways and into cool Margolis barn. Violette the right guy bringing one back, but you have to wonder about Cribnote being gone 3 years. Tough calls..

Most Likely: #2 Beautyinthepulpit 7-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Ground Force 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Green Monster 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #7 Crea's Law 4-1 5th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Mississippi Duel 3-1: Going well late in sprint debut.. 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Van Tassel 7-2: Half to Ichabad Crane.. 7th
Best Value: #6 Swag Daddy 5-1: Bred to like lawn & the stretchout.. 5th
Super Add: #4 Post Pattern 8-1: Sneaky good route debut barn.. 9th

3rd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Weak group of state bred maidens, and to my way of thinking, those at nice numbers with any evidence of races good enough to compete might as well be used as prominently as the lower tote faves like One Way to Rock and Calico Mountain whom you can cover in multis..

Most Likely: #10 Well Built 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Grand Rapture 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 One Way to Rock 5-2 WON ($4.10)
Super Add: #9 La Festa E Domani 20-1 5th

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Running Tap 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #3 Fiji Star 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Late SCR
Super Add: #7 Allen's Affair 15-1 4th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky as can be N2L with Fisher bringing back reformed hurdler Short Shrift and Rice running a filly v. the boys. Largely a group nearly impossible to separate. #12 (AE) Medieval Sword (7-2) obviously a major player if in..

Best Value: #8 Marine Officer 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Jeanbaptiste Carot 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Short Shrift 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #9 SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 8-9
3: 1-2-3-9-10
4: 3-4-6/SCR
5: 4-6-8-9/SCR-10

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$219k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Very interesting set of maidens and a brutal way to start the big carryover sequence. Tried to latch on to some possibilities with the tabs below, but winner could come from anywhere in this..

Best Value: #8 B Shanny 15-1 WON ($14.00)
Next Best: #9 Tripendicular 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 El Padrino 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Flashy Sunrise 12-1 8th

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Tapaway 12-1: Back to lawn; Karma moves abound.. WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #8 Dahess 5-1: Brown will have Repole colt ready.. 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Dodging 9-2: Closed well on slick lawn.. 4th
Super Add: #1 The Laurels 3-1: Solid first pair; Drops, gets Ramon.. 3rd

8th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

2nd turf route for maidens, this time open company and a nice group it is..

Most Likely: #3 Saturday Classic 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Ancil 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Tiz a Homerun 3-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Fantastic Song 5-1 WON ($20.40)

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Exclusive Love 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 La Reine Lionne 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #4 Silver La Belle 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Ainamaa 6-1 7th

10th: 131st Alabama S. (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD)

Outstanding and exclusive cast of fillies for this standard, long one of my favorite races of the year..

Most Likely: #4 It's Tricky 9-5: Nearly perfect and extra eighth shouldn't inhibit.. 2nd
Best Value: #1 Royal Delta 6-1: Tighter after pre-CCAO hiccup; Bred for trip.. WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #6 Inglorious 6-1: Reprises Queen's Plate trip; Carroll deadly 'first dirt'.. 6th
Exotics Use: #5 St. John's River 5-1: Leggio "now" filly may get ideal set up.. 5th

11th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Westside Corral 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 East of Danzig 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Hear the Footsteps 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Midnight Billy 10-1 WON ($10.40)

<$150 P6 Play:

Supremely challenging sextet..

6: 3-8-9
7: 7-8
8: 3
9: 2-5
10: 1-4-6
11: 2-6

3x2x1x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5-9-10
9: 2-5
10: 1-4-6
11: 1-2-3-5-6

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick 4 (10/5,10,11,12/1/3) Paid $599.25

Good luck!
Steve