Derby Trail Forums - 8/3: Saratoga (Day 11; Morrissey)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Nice group of solid citizens. Maker has been conspicuously absent from winner circles of late, but perhaps Kathern's Kitten back on the lawn could wake up the barn..

Best Value: #4 Kathern's Kitten 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Miss Laa di Da 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Loure 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Inflation Hedge 7-2 4th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Pletcher debuter Hunt Crossing makes all the sense, but note that during Chad Brown's Tuesday visit to ATR, this Corinthian colt's half brother Bluember came up in conversation. Brown explained that the Bluegrass Cat 3yo, who broke his maiden over the weekend going 1m-70y at Monmouth, needed time to develop, and Corinthian's first 10 runners to hit the track have yet to win in 14 tries. Pletcher barn is transcending those kind of realities of course, and Hunt Crossing is still the most likely baby to win this event. But if you're looking for a reason to go against him, you at least have a possible reason.

Most Likely: #5 Hunt Crossing 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #6 Al Mudeer 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Backnbiz 20-1 6th
Super Add: #3 My Wahoo 4-1 3rd

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Scootles 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Truffles 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Lynnette 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Yadira 5-1 WON ($14.60)

4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Interesting conditions in this event has assembled a cast with lots of possibilities. Should be a dogfight..

Best Value: #8 Broken Trust Fund 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Silent Joy 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Miss Addison 8-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Northern Coast 3-1 WON ($6.70)

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Same Old Wish 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Special Action 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Orsonian 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 The Defense Rests 4-1 WON ($9.40)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 5
3: 1-2-3-4-5-6
4: 1-4-6-7-8-10
5: 1-2-8-9

1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (5/1/1,5,9,13,14,15,16/1) Paid $112.37

6th: S/HCP, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Sea Gaze 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Middle Bank 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Frazil 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Super Add: #7 Unbridled Heat 5-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L. 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Worth a Buck 6-1? Doubt we getting half that..

Most Likely: #2 Worth a Buck 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Majestic Hope 5-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #6 Mr. Bristol 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Grounded Love 8-1 5th

8th: John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Be Bullish 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Ibboyee 7-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #5 Naughty New Yorker 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Six Flings 15-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3YO, 1M-IT (DD, Super)

Don't often bet Matz, but this may be spot to do so finally getting Dehere colt onto surface that may prove out as one he prefers being half to excellent West Coast lawn spawn Haimish Hy (G1 Hollywood Derby)..

Best Value: #6 Argentine Talisman 10-1 WON ($31.40)
Next Best: #8 Top Surprize 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Ivy Connection 8-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Kid Curry 8-1 4th

$1 Pick 3 (7/7/6) Paid $281.00

10th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

AE's 11, 12 & 13 all have impact potential, so watch for SCR's..

Best Value: #10 Montana Knight 5-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #11 (AE) SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Paul's Ace 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Thisonesforruthie 8-1 9th

$1 Pick 3 (7/6/10) Paid $131.25

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-7
8: 6-7
9: 4-6-8-9
10: 7-10-11/SCR

3x2x4x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (7/7/6/10,11,12,13) Paid $832.50

Good luck!
Steve