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-   -   First couple weeks of Saratoga (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43232)

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 10:57 AM

First couple weeks of Saratoga
 
with favorites not winning, and having a few prices in the first few days of the meet. Should we expect more formful results, or should I keep looking for the "value" horses.

VOL JACK 07-26-2011 11:02 AM

Any horse player should always be looking for the value in the race.

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 11:05 AM

I look for winners if the favorite is who I like, there is no value in betting a value horse who doesnt win. I eat chalk and I swing for the fences. The price of a horse does not affect my handicapping or betting.

ateamstupid 07-26-2011 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 794965)
The price of a horse does not affect my handicapping or betting.

Really?

Rudeboyelvis 07-26-2011 12:33 PM

Consider the source

MaTH716 07-26-2011 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 794961)
with favorites not winning, and having a few prices in the first few days of the meet. Should we expect more formful results, or should I keep looking for the "value" horses.

On the turf, I would continue to look for horses that have shown speed.

Bigsmc 07-26-2011 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 794983)
Consider the source

4 cards.....32.5% of the post time favorites have won.

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc (Post 794986)
4 cards.....32.5% of the post time favorites have won.

thats a pretty surprising percentage, thats about the right percentage for favorites winning at a track. It seems that they have had alot of nice prices come in. Some of which I have been the beneficiary of.

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 794975)
Really?


yeah what people bet doesnt affect a horses peformance, only time I will look at a price of a horse is in a maiden race, obv if a horse is taking the money its probably the goods.

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 794983)
Consider the source

I have been doing very well as of late, I tweaked a few things with my handicapping and have learned from mistakes in the past I refused to change. Learned a few things, dropped some bad habits/angles, and humbled myself to know I have alot to learn and I have done alot of foolish things. Two people have said insanity is when you do the same thing over and over hoping to achieve a different result. So I stopped what I have been doing over and over again. I have learned my lesson and adjusted, so far its paying off.

dagolfer33 07-26-2011 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 794988)
thats a pretty surprising percentage, thats about the right percentage for favorites winning at a track. It seems that they have had alot of nice prices come in. Some of which I have been the beneficiary of.

This is an example of non-specific RDBRDNG.

dagolfer33 07-26-2011 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 794990)
I have been doing very well as of late, I tweaked a few things with my handicapping and have learned from mistakes in the past I refused to change. Learned a few things, dropped some bad habits/angles, and humbled myself to know I have alot to learn and I have done alot of foolish things. Two people have said insanity is when you do the same thing over and over hoping to achieve a different result. So I stopped what I have been doing over and over again. I have learned my lesson and adjusted, so far its paying off.

This as well.

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 794994)
This is an example of non-specific RDBRDNG.


geez what a tough crowd.

dagolfer33 07-26-2011 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 794996)
geez what a tough crowd.

:D

ateamstupid 07-26-2011 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 794984)
On the turf, I would continue to look for horses that have shown speed.

I wouldn't be so sure now that it finally got some rain.

ateamstupid 07-26-2011 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 794989)
yeah what people bet doesnt affect a horses peformance, only time I will look at a price of a horse is in a maiden race, obv if a horse is taking the money its probably the goods.

I've never met a horseplayer who doesn't look at odds. That's a pretty damn ridiculous approach.

Seattleallstar 07-26-2011 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 795001)
I've never met a horseplayer who doesn't look at odds. That's a pretty damn ridiculous approach.

I look at the odds when im done handicapping, and do put huge win bets on horses I really like whether it be even money or 20-1.

dagolfer33 07-26-2011 02:30 PM

I generally do things in reverse. I look at the huge payoffs from my huge win bets, subtract 2 or 3 or 4 zeros (depending how huge of a bet I made), then divide by 2 then subtract 1. Then I know what the horses odds were.:zz:

geeker2 07-26-2011 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 795007)
I generally do things in reverse. I look at the huge payoffs from my huge win bets, subtract 2 or 3 or 4 zeros (depending how huge of a bet I made), then divide by 2 then subtract 1. Then I know what the horses odds were.:zz:

:D

analyizethis 07-26-2011 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc (Post 794986)
4 cards.....32.5% of the post time favorites have won.

That's after Monday's sloppy results with scratch reduced fields (Four favories won nine races).

After Sunday the fav winning % was 29.03%


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