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-   -   What would you do with a $10,000 SPA bankroll? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43208)

PatCummings 07-24-2011 09:54 PM

What would you do with a $10,000 SPA bankroll?
 
Betting strategy question...

You are given $10,000 to bet at Saratoga in an attempt to make money for 200 people who are lucky enough to be a part of it.

Would you ever bet $100 to win on a 5-2 shot?

Would you make bets that attempt to make meaningful money for the lucky recipients? Or would you make pick four plays that go 3 x 4 x 1 x 3, singling a 1-5 shot in the middle?

I wouldn't, personally, but I'm not in this situation. My opinion, however, is that you should feel obligated to pursue big scores with decent prices in an attempt to gain exponential returns by doubling, tripling, or going even better than that. Thoughts?

blackthroatedwind 07-24-2011 11:47 PM

Let's be fair here, Pat....is this a shot at the Wizard?

At least be up front about it.

Hickory Hill Hoff 07-25-2011 07:34 AM

or Dick Powell????

PatCummings 07-25-2011 09:03 AM

Definitely not a shot at the Wizard (big fan of the Wiz, Andy, you know that), and not a shot, per se, at Dick Powell, who does have this challenge in front of him for Cap OTB. I'm asking legitimately - do you attempt to make as much money as you possibly can by attacking tris, supers, pick fours, pick sixes...or do you simply try to get something?

I noticed he was betting $100 to win on a 5-2 shot and a 2-1 shot yesterday (it comes up on my Facebook feed and thought it seemed a little ridiculous).

If you have someone betting a share of $10,000 for you, and you had to share the results with 200 people...would you want said person betting $100 to win on a 2-1 favorite?

Also keep this in mind - if the bettor wins $20,000 - then each person gets $100. Maybe it's just a gift...found money...but you could get some significant returns with a big bankroll, no?

PatCummings 07-25-2011 09:15 AM

I'll add this point...

I've managed big group bets (not $10k big, but still) for the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby before, and told people who were putting money in that the goal was to take chances for big scores. Big exotic bets are the way to do it, and people who are interested in investing should totally expect to lose what they put in...but if they want a chance at an excess return, here it is.

The difference in this situation is that these people in the bankroll challenge are essentially being gifted the money...so should they be grateful for anything they get, or bummed that they are only getting $1.63 each for the $100 win bet on Dehere Of The Cat?

jms62 07-25-2011 09:16 AM

I would probably play Supers since you can burn up fast in the P6 and P4's just aren't paying what they used to before the 50 cent version. You could play 3x6x6x6 for 180 per pop and have 55 shots at it. With that construction I think you can hit near 15% - 20% of the time.

Port Conway Lane 07-25-2011 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings (Post 794704)
I'll add this point...

I've managed big group bets for the Breeders' Cup before, and told people who were putting money in that the goal was to take chances for big scores. Big exotic bets are the way to do it, and people who are interested in investing should totally expect to lose what they put in...but if they want a chance at an excess return, here it is.

The difference in this situation is that these people in the bankroll challenge are essentially being gifted the money...so should they be grateful for anything they get, or bummed that they are only getting $1.63 each for the $100 win bet on Dehere Of The Cat?

How does this work? Does the money invested churn until the end of the meet? If not then I see your point.

Dahoss 07-25-2011 09:28 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A939QRRSNV4

PatCummings 07-25-2011 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 794708)
How does this work? Does the money invested churn until the end of the meet? If not then I see your point.

Honestly, I don't know.

Port Conway Lane 07-25-2011 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings (Post 794710)
Honestly, I don't know.

That makes a difference. Breeders Cup is one (or two) days. $100 win on a 2-1 would appear to be a waste of 1% if the contest ended after $10,000 is wagered. I would shoot for at least a 10-1 return, two $50 exactas or DD's.

However if the money is used until it runs out or the meet ends I see nothing wrong with $100 win bet on a 2-1 that could be used for future opportunities.

Linny 07-25-2011 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings (Post 794710)
Honestly, I don't know.

The bankroll churns. It's paid out at the end.

Dick is also very mindful of the takeout and unless there is a c/o, he's not likely to shoot for the P6 and will play the P4's a bit but only when he thinks that he's finding value in one leg.

Knowing Dick and his handicapping and betting I do know that he is playing this bankroll as he does his own. He's also more inclined to take a slower and more cautious approach early on but more likely to pick up the pace once the meet gets underway and track trends etc are more apparent.

Dick is also less likely than Wiz to chant the Torah on live TV.

cakes44 07-25-2011 12:59 PM

Two chicks at the same time.

pointman 07-25-2011 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 794774)
Two chicks at the same time.

:D
:tro:

Hickory Hill Hoff 07-25-2011 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny (Post 794773)
The bankroll churns. It's paid out at the end.

Dick is also very mindful of the takeout and unless there is a c/o, he's not likely to shoot for the P6 and will play the P4's a bit but only when he thinks that he's finding value in one leg.

Knowing Dick and his handicapping and betting I do know that he is playing this bankroll as he does his own. He's also more inclined to take a slower and more cautious approach early on but more likely to pick up the pace once the meet gets underway and track trends etc are more apparent.

Dick is also less likely than Wiz to chant the Torah on live TV.


:tro:

2MinsToPost 07-25-2011 05:13 PM

Simple math and risk vs reward

Siena 16 07-25-2011 06:20 PM

10,000 Bankroll
 
The best "players" in this game of Horse Racing are the guys you never see or hear of especially on TV, they are never noticed or heard from and this is coming from someone from Brooklyn who has played the game for 32 years.

blackthroatedwind 07-25-2011 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Siena 16 (Post 794876)
The best "players" in this game of Horse Racing are the guys you never see or hear of especially on TV, they are never noticed or heard from and this is coming from someone from Brooklyn who has played the game for 32 years.

Not true.

Siena 16 07-25-2011 07:15 PM

very true Andy. I learned the game from a player who has won 3 million dollars in his lifetime betting horses and if you bumped in to him you would never know it. "you have to do the work" young fella

blackthroatedwind 07-25-2011 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Siena 16 (Post 794880)
very true Andy. I learned the game from a player who has won 3 million dollars in his lifetime betting horses and if you bumped in to him you would never know it. "you have to do the work" young fella

It's a relative myth. There are plenty of successful players that are well known in the racing world.

Siena 16 07-25-2011 08:17 PM

I'm sure there are, It's relative to what decade you were born in. Keep up the good work and continue "to do the work" (R.I.P. Beef) the sprint specialist


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