Derby Trail Forums - 7/15: Belmont Park ($26k C/O)

Hard to decribe Thursday's P6 action at Hollywood as anything but heartbreaking. Came live 2x3 to last pair with $15 and $20 winners in tow, but had to settle for $1,200 worth of conso when Unzip Me fell at 3-5 to uncovered and aptly named Broken Dreams. Disappointing as it was to miss out on the $48k payday, I heard from several people that did well taking in the opinions, and one that took down the sequence for their first P6 hit ever, which is endlessly gratifying. Another carryover to start the weekend, this time at Belmont...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Starsilhouette 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Australis Princess 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Decennial 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #3 To the Point 3-1 6th

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Royal Majesty 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Thunder Chief 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Star of New York 6-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Not that he figures prominently today, but #6 Ur (Giant's Causeway) is a half to the outstanding Island Sand (Tabasco Cat), who in 2004 beat Society Selection in the Acorn and was 2nd to Ashado in the Kentucky Oaks..

Most Likely: #1 Skorton 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Finale 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Demon's Deputy 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Knock Rock 10-1 6th

$1 Pick 3 (5-5-2) Paid: $35.75

7th: S/HCP, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Fisherman's Wharf 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Close to the Vest 15-1 WON ($25.00)
Next Best: #2 Unbridled Heat 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Six Flings 12-1 -

$1 Pick 3 (5/2/6) Paid $170.00
$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $55.00
$1 Trifecta (6-2-4) Paid $144.25

8th: Sometime Thing, 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

For a six horse overnight stake, this is a very nicely matched group. Indian Lilly is the only one of the set that would be a surprise. Savvy Supreme and You're Kidding are the only parties especially inclined to being up front, and that frequently translates to horses running 1-2 all the way around. Dominguez will have a good view of what's happening on Coax Liberty, and she may be very dangerous in his hands based on how she won the 11/12/10 Philly ALW last year. Victoria's Wildcat deserves a mulligan for the muddy Acorn. Good, good race..

Best Value: #6 Coax Liberty 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #2 Savvy Supreme 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 You're Kidding 3-1 5th

$1 Pick 3 (2/6/6) Paid $305.00
$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $19.40

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Miss Mexique 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Stella Di Sicilia 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Vintage Heirloom 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Marblehead Manor 5-1 WON ($15.80)

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-5
5: 1-5
6: 1-2
7: 4
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 4

3x2x2x1x4x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3
7: 2-4-6-8
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 4-5-7

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve