Derby Trail Forums - 7/14: Hollywood Park ($109k C/O)

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- - 7/14: Hollywood Park ($109k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43064)

7/14: Hollywood Park ($109k C/O); Belmont Park (9th)

Return to New York from Florida Thursday after 2 very pleasant weeks. Preparations for 'At the Races' 5th season broadcasting from Carolina Barbecue in the Saratoga backyard are in full swing, and everything points to a great 7 week stand at the Spa. As good as summer racing is when Del Mar (Wednesday) and Saratoga open (Friday), the last several weeks and weekends have provided top flight entertainment and wagering opportunities already. Flirted with P6 score at Belmont Saturday, but had to settle for the $140 conso and solid $383 P4. There were some nice numbers to poach in the Delaware and Summit of Speed sequences as well. Hope everybody did well... Hollywood offers another midweek carryover Thursday -- this one almost $110k. When we last encountered this opportunity, two weeks ago, the total pot soared towards $1,000,000.

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Top pair should get us through first leg..

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #6 Entabeni 4-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #4 Subpeona the Dress 2-1 4th

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If Town Belle doesn't win this, don't know when she will..

Most Likely: #6 Town Belle 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 On Your Mark 2-1 7th
Best Value: #4 She Can Roar 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Team Builder 7-2 5th

5th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Trickiest event of the sequence. If it's not Madeoftherightstuf (2-1), then it's anybody..

Most Likely: #8 Madeoftherightstuf 2-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Nofty 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #4 Kingpin Ryno 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Valen 10-1 5th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Very well-matched group..

Best Value: #5 Legal Separation 6-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #4 Chiloquin 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Gator Warrior 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Master Chef 2-1 6th

7th: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Unzip Me is formidable and exceedingly likely, but she's not unbeatable..

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Seperate Forest 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Broken Dreams 3-1 WON ($7.40)

8th: Cal-MDN CLM, 2yo, 5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Firster Run for Miles may be on a par with the double-dropping fave Pedlars Way..

Most Likely: #1 Pedlars Way 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Run for Miles 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Grumpy Small Mouth 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #2 Insightful Boy 10-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Taylor Marini 20-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1/SCR-6
4: 6
5: 2-8
6: 4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

1x1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x $2 = $72

$2 Pick 6 (6/6,9/2/5/1/8) Paid $617.20 (5OF6) x 2 = $1,234.40

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-4-8
6: 1-3-4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

BELMONT PARK -- SPOT RACE

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Don't always eagerly attack turf sprints due to their randomness, but vulnerability of 5-2 favorite #12 Karakorum Elektra makes this too interesting to pass up. Yes, she's dropping down to Empire company for the first time since fall '09, is third off the break and should get a pace to stalk or close into, but she's also 7yo now and hasn't finished with much oomph in the pair of modest overnight stakes that have started her season. There are a variety of options to use at generous numbers in this spot, and a bulbous set of mutuels could easily emerge..

Best Value: #4 Considerate 10-1: Continues to progress; Invariably ITM.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Raffie's Rose 15-1: 2nd/break & effort 10/10 fits here.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Rosa Salvaje 6-1: Best of speeds away since GP open ALW score.. 4th
Super Add: #7 Sezzana 15-1: Diploma'd BEL lawn 'back when'; Will be ignored.. 9th

Good luck!
Steve

SB, where you getting your ML odds from? They are different from what Formulator is showing. You have Subpoena the Dress as 6-1 and I am seeing 2-1. They are different for your other 3 selections in that same race, as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 791035)

Were off the Quick Sheet and may have still been the Graded Entries odds. I printed it this morning thinking they were the ML but they may not have plugged them in yet. Will adjust...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 791037)

Were off the Quick Sheet and may have still been the Graded Entries odds. I printed it this morning thinking they were the ML but they may not have plugged them in yet. Will adjust...

Gonna cut you some slack this time, being you are just back from Vacay:rolleyes: and all, but I'm trying to run a tight ship around here, so lets get on the ball, k?

3. 1,4
4. 2,6
5. 1,4,8,9
6. 1,3,4,6
7. 1,2,3
8. 1,3,7,8 = $1536.

Ticket I may play.
1
2,6
4,8,9
3,4,6
3
1,3,8

Contest play
1,4,7
2,6,9
1,4,8
1,3,4,6
1,2,3
1,3,8
$1944

1,4
2,6,8
4,8
3,4,6
2,3

$144

1,4,5/1,2,4,6/1,5,8/3,4,6/2,3/1,3,6,9

4/1,2,6,8/1,2,3,4,5,8/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,3/1,3,8
$1728

contest - good luck all.

3)1,4,6
4)2,6
5)1,3,4,8,9
6)1,3,4,6
7)1,3
8)1,2,3,8
$1920

3)6,4 (added when 1 scratcheD)
4)1,2,4
5)8
6)3,4,6
7)3
8)3,8
$72

my real ticket
4,6
2,6
1,8
3,4,6
3
2,3
96

3rd: 1,4,5,6
4th: 2,6
5th: 1,3,4,5,8,9
6th: 3,4,5,6
7th: 3
8th: 1,3,6,8
$1920

1,4,6
2,6
1,2,3,4,8
1,3,4,5,6
1,3
1,3,8

1,4,6
2,6
1,4,5,8
3,4,6
2,3,5
1,3,6,8

$1728 Gl

Sure looked to me like Espinoza was gonna get there on Kingpin Ryno...then all of a sudden it seems it quits riding.:confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 791280)

Sure looked to me like Espinoza was gonna get there on Kingpin Ryno...then all of a sudden it seems it quits riding.:confused:

Looks like he saved it for the 6th......

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 791032)

Return to New York from Florida Thursday after 2 very pleasant weeks. Preparations for 'At the Races' 5th season broadcasting from Carolina Barbecue in the Saratoga backyard are in full swing, and everything points to a great 7 week stand at the Spa. As good as summer racing is when Del Mar (Wednesday) and Saratoga open (Friday), the last several weeks and weekends have provided top flight entertainment and wagering opportunities already. Flirted with P6 score at Belmont Saturday, but had to settle for the $140 conso and solid $383 P4. There were some nice numbers to poach in the Delaware and Summit of Speed sequences as well. Hope everybody did well... Hollywood offers another midweek carryover Thursday -- this one almost $110k. When we last encountered this opportunity, two weeks ago, the total pot soared towards $1,000,000.

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Top pair should get us through first leg..

Most Likely: #1 Sleep Tight 5-2
Best Value: #6 Entabeni 4-1
Next Best: #5 Cactus Flyer 3-1
Super Add: #4 Subpeona the Dress 2-1

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If Town Belle doesn't win this, don't know when she will..

Most Likely: #6 Town Belle 5-2
Next Best: #2 On Your Mark 2-1
Best Value: #4 She Can Roar 8-1
Super Add: #1 Team Builder 7-2

5th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Trickiest event of the sequence. If it's not Madeoftherightstuf (2-1), then it's anybody..

Most Likely: #8 Madeoftherightstuf 2-1
Best Value: #2 Nofty 6-1
Next Best: #4 Kingpin Ryno 5-2
Super Add: #3 Valen 10-1

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Very well-matched group..

Best Value: #5 Legal Separation 6-1
Next Best: #4 Chiloquin 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Gator Warrior 5-2
Super Add: #3 Master Chef 2-1

7th: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Unzip Me is formidable and exceedingly likely, but she's not unbeatable..

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 6-5
Next Best: #2 Seperate Forest 2-1
Exotics Use: #1 Broken Dreams 3-1

8th: Cal-MDN CLM, 2yo, 5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Firster Run for Miles may be on a par with the double-dropping fave Pedlars Way..

Most Likely: #1 Pedlars Way 5-2
Next Best: #3 Run for Miles 7-2
Best Value: #8 Grumpy Small Mouth 5-1
Super Add: #2 Insightful Boy 10-1
Hi-5 Play: #10 Taylor Marini 20-1

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1-6
4: 6
5: 2-8
6: 4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

2x1x2x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-4-8
6: 1-3-4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

BELMONT PARK -- SPOT RACE

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Don't always eagerly attack turf sprints due to their randomness, but vulnerability of 5-2 favorite #12 Karakorum Elektra makes this too interesting to pass up. Yes, she's dropping down to Empire company for the first time since fall '09, is third off the break and should get a pace to stalk or close into, but she's also 7yo now and hasn't finished with much oomph in the pair of modest overnight stakes that have started her season. There are a variety of options to use at generous numbers in this spot, and a bulbous set of mutuels could easily emerge..

Best Value: #4 Considerate 10-1: Continues to progress; Invariably ITM..
Exotics Use: #9 Raffie's Rose 15-1: 2nd/break & effort 10/10 fits here..
Next Best: #8 Rosa Salvaje 6-1: Best of speeds away since GP open ALW score..
Super Add: #7 Sezzana 15-1: Diploma'd BEL lawn 'back when'; Will be ignored..

Good luck!
Steve

Steve,
Nice run so far. Good luck in the last 2 legs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 791285)

Steve,
Nice run so far. Good luck in the last 2 legs.

Thx Tom. That was tough in the 7th. Conso was nice and all, but..

Tough one Steve.. Nice work!

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 791285)

Steve,
Nice run so far. Good luck in the last 2 legs.

Hey!!...do you mind?

Now you're going to bring a very angry Sterling in here.

Happy now?

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 791297)

Tough one Steve.. Nice work!

Shut up!!