Derby Trail Forums - 6/19: Belmont Park ($169k C/O)

A pair of crazy totes upended the multi-race action at Belmont and Churchill Saturday, as $160 Rocky World (NYB MSW) and $75 Pool Play (G1 Stephen Foster) scored as the longest respective prices on the board. As a result, NY offers a $169k P6 C/O and KY a $20k version as well as Super Hi-5 carry of $13k. The upset by Rocky World was difficult to comprehend even after the race, but Pool Play at least was moving to a dirt main track for the first time and is bred for it. He was within range of the prime contenders, was just 'one of the others' to be looked at in a deep group, and was easy to lose on the board. After Kerry Metiver and Jaime Rodriguez authored the stunner in the Belmont 5th and up to Miguel Mena booting home the Mark Casse trainee in Churchill's 2nd most important feature, the day was pretty darn nice with a number of solid P3's and a few exotics bingos. Hope you did well and enjoyed the fun day of racing.. A very Happy Father's Day to all!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

VERY good race for $25k maidens. In addition to the 4 below at bonus mutuels, you are absolutely forced to consider 4-1 Mott grey Hoopskirt and 7-2 Contessa dropper Far Isle who have been perilously close to their diplomas. Even Terranova's Tulane Up has a sneaky chance in here at 15-1. Like Saturday's 5th that produced the 79-1 winner, a brutally tough way to start the P6 sequence..

Best Value: #10 Time Marches On 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 (POE) She Drives Me Wild 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Miss Vindictive 8-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Another Please 5-1 3rd

6th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Feels straightforward with Brown/Ramsey 4yo strictly the one to beat..

Most Likely: #7 Hyper 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Longhammer 4-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #1 Giopi 15-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Cookram Rock 5-1 6th

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting group of 3-4yo turf fillies. Favored Splendid (3-1), who jumped up first turf, and Race to Urga (8-5) are fine, but sense 2-3 others are well within range including Phipps' Abaco (5-1) who chased Saturday's Regret (G3) winner Bizzy Caroline at KEE..

Best Value: #5 Abaco 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Splendid 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Race to Urga 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Super Add: #3 Winery 10-1 7th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Pretty Cozzy 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Considerate 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Lights Out Lisa 3-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Watkins Glen 8-1 7th

9th: Noble Nashua-NY, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Doubt Be Bullish -- entered by old connections before being claimed Friday -- runs. Also interesting to see Galluscio wheel right back with Johannesburg Smile, who could not have looked better winning an open company ALW against real horses on Belmont Day..

Most Likely: #6 Johannesburg Smile 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Spa City Fever 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Slevin 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Smokin Hero 12-1 WON ($18.80)

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #2 English Ivy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Saint Kitten 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #6 Strikealinethruit 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Skips Prospect 6-1 WON ($17.80)

<$75 or <$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-10 (2-4-6)
6: 7
7: 1-5-8
8: 7-9
9: 6
10: 2-12

6 in Leg A: 6x1x3x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
3 in Leg A: 3x1x3x2x1x2 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-8
8: 7-9-10
9: 1-2-6-8
10: 2-12

3x3x4x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve