5/21: Hi Ho Pimlico! (Preakness Day)
 

Despite hitting only one of the 3 P4/P5 opps, it was a very solid start to the Maryland Weekend festivities Friday. The weather cooperated and another excellent day is anticipated for racing second stop on the Triple Crown trail. Bill Mott got Royal Delta a nice sophomore merit with a Black-Eyed Susan win, and the $53 triple was a shocking gift from the 5 horse set. Suzzona ($9.80) keyed an exotics sweep in the Very One after the feature. Other than stupidly omitting Southern Sweetie from the 6th, the day produced a number of OK returns, and I hope you did well. Preakness Day arrives, and while not as big as Derby two weeks ago, it should be a superb afternoon. Hope you feel well-prepared by ATR's coverage, and enjoy the action from Old Hilltop!


PIMLICO RACE COURSE


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: 19th Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Payton d'Oro 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Life at Ten 4-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Decelerator 5-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Super Espresso 10-1 WON ($24.20)


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, .50 P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Princess Malka 9-2 8th
Best Value: #12 Cagey Act 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Toni's the One 5-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #1 Belarus 8-1 3rd


6th: 36th Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Ghost is Clear 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Escort 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Vengeful Wildcat 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #2 Chipshot 10-1 2nd


7th: 46th James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (.50 P3, DD, Super)

There is absolutely nothing about Joes Blazing Aaron in here that merits his favoritism or you being obligated to respect his presence. He's not better than the next 6 on the ML. He can win if absolutely everything goes his way on the front end. You want that at 5-2 from the 10 hole?

Best Value: #4 Lil Bit O'Fun 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Master Dunker 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Humble and Hungry 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Chinglish 10-1 WON ($19.60)


8th: MD Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (.50 P3, .50 P5, DD, Super)

Ventana owns a company line edge and I'm singling him in the P4, but there's something about this race that feels slippery..

Most Likely: #5 Ventana 8-5 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #3 Nathan's H Q 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Safety Check 9-2 7th
Super Add: #2 Heritage Hall 15-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-7-8-11-12-13-14
6: 1-4-5
7: 1-2-4-5-9-10
8: 5

8x3x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 CENT Pick 4 (11-5/7-2-5) Paid $426.90


9th: 60th Gallorette H. (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, .50 P3, DD, Super)

Handicap in an authentic sense as noted Friday by Graham Motion on ATR as Shared Account lays 8-13 pounds to her rivals here. That's significant weight given that a few of her opponents are forward-going and already within about three lengths of her..

Most Likely: #6 Shared Account 4-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Desert Sage 5-1 2nd-DH
Exotics Use: #8 Dyna Waltz 5-1 2nd-DH
Super Add: #2 No Explaining 4-1 WON ($8.80)


10th: 24th Wm. Donald Schaefer (G3), 3+, 8.5f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Race that launched Blame's '10 HOY season again features a nice assembly of eclectic talent. As long as Eighttofasttocatch (cross-entered in the Dixie) keeps Colizeo honest on the pace, Apart figures to sit a garden trip..

Most Likely: #2 Apart 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #4 SCR
Next Best: #8 Colizeo 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Ichabad Crane 4-1 3rd


11th: 110th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Nice to have Paddy O'Prado back in action, and as Dale Romans told the ATR audience Friday, he should come back running. I wouldn't bet Contessa (Grand Rapport) in a spot like this with money I found in the street..

Most Likely: #4 Paddy O'Prado 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #7 Pocket Patch 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Baryshnikov 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Slews Answer 6-1 5th


12th: 136th Preakness S. (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Sure feels like a Preakness where you go in wanting to doubt the Derby winner, but will immediately acknowledge his merits if he wins here with any aplomb..

1 Astrology (Smith/Asmussen) 15-1: Needs to gain early position; Not for him, not against him.. 3rd
2 Norman Asbjornson (Pimentel/Grove) 30-1: Note old school worktab; Solid citizen a board threat.. 11th
3 King Congie (Albarado/Albertrani) 20-1: Albertrani presents Brillaint Speed 2.0; Deep exotics filler.. 7th
4 Flashpoint (Velasquez/Ward) 20-1: Now with Ward, seems certain pacesetter, but how far can he stay? 14th
5 Shackleford (Castanon/Romans) 12-1: Derby tab loomed a winner before tiring; Still in peak form.. WON
6 Sway Away (Gomez/Bonde) 15-1: Many landing here, but still not convinced he wants classic trips.. 12th
7 Midnight Interlude (Garcia M/Baffert) 15-1: No Lookin at Lucky, but likely to be better at overlay odds.. 13th
8 Dance City (Dominguez/Pletcher) 12-1: Owns buzz thanks to gritty Arky run; The one to catch late? 5th
9 Mucho Macho Man (Maragh/Ritvo) 6-1: Thriving and more than any, certain to run his race.. 6th
10 Dialed In (Leparoux/Zito) 9-2: Tighter for this but hard not to wonder whether he's too slow early.. 4th
11 Animal Kingdom (Velazquez J/Motion) 2-1: Derby hero gets chance to earn marks as special horse.. 2nd
12 Isn't He Perfect (Prado/Shivmangal) 30-1: Over-achiever gets jock upgrade; Hi-5 bottom a target.. 9th
13 Concealed Identity (Russell/Gaudet) 30-1: Baltimore's version of Archarcharch drew nearly as poorly.. 10th
14 Mr. Commons (Espinoza/Shirreffs) 20-1: Was eager to use but slot a disaster with ground-loss rider.. 8th

Most Likely: #11 Animal Kingdom 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Mucho Macho Man 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Dance City 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Shackleford 12-1 WON ($27.20)
Super/Hi-5: #3 King Congie 30-1 7th


<$50 P5 Play:

8: 3-5
9: 6-7-8
10: 2-4-5-8
11: 4
12: 8-9-11

2x3x4x1x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 6-7-8
10: 2-4-5-8
11: 4-5-6-7
12: 8-9-11

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Scratches
Race 2 #3 Domestic Affair
Race 3 #2 Duffy Junior, #7 Cove Star
Race 4 #5 Baltimore Belle
Race 5 #3 Swing Music, #5 Squabble, #10 Sarah Cataldo, #14 Alwaysacontest
Race 6 #7 Diski Dance
Race 7 #5 Batter Up
Race 10 #3 Eighttofasttocatch, #4 No Advantage, #7 Pleasant Prince
Race 11 #3 Grand Rapport
Race 13 #4 Yougottowantto, #10 Whatdoyousee, #1 Leather Gloves, #13 Whata Soandso

The Schaeffer was pretty decimated. . . 3 of the 6 horses I was using just to get through the leg are out.

Pimlico:
6th No Easy Answers
7th Humble and Hungry
8th Safety Check
9th Desert Sage
Pick 3 (10th-11th-12th) Apart-Ichabad-Colizeo/Paddy o Prado/Astrology
Preakness! exacta key Animal Kingdom over Astrology and Dance City

Race 5
The #12 seems like a crazy over lay @ 23-1 (4 min to post)
$10 WPS and $1 ex's
1,2,4,8,11/12 & 12/1,2,4,8,11

edit
Ran 4th @25-1 ugh

Bykster Nails 2 Supers already.... Nice.

Stevie, you only have 5 horseys in your "likely,next likely, best maybe,could be,why nots?" list.


Should'un there be more?????

It wasn't exactly a great day for big win mutuels, but it was a fun afternoon at Pimlico Saturday and profitable depending on your betting style. Got up early with the hit on the early P4 ($427) which paid well over twice the parlay, and then had to tread through the chalk until the feature.

As harped on the last two weeks on ATR, Derby horses are the place to start in the Preakness, and Shackleford proved out with another gutty performance. Thrilled for Dale Romans and his wacky clan, hard-working, under-appreciated Jesus Castanon, the classy Lauffer/Cubbage connections (including our own Rootdog), and even Taylor Made who get a needed boost as the purveyors of Forestry.

Animal Kingdom was certainly honorable in defeat, and loomed a winner midstretch. As mentioned over the fortnight, I thought Shackleford might have hung in even more gamely in the Derby had the challengers been in his field of vision, and after rebuffing Astrology at the top of the lane, appeared to immediately answer Animal Kingdom with a spurt forward when that rival came up to him. I expect his win should send the 'soft trip beneficiary' naysayers into the shadows.

Shack's win tote was nice and the $114 exacta was generous, but Astrology buried my own tri/super prospects. The Stonestreet/Bolton ran a good race and got a clever 'save every inch' ride from Smitty. Good end to a very fun day. Hope everyone did well! Focus turns to New York with the Met Mile and Belmont Weekend one and three weeks away..

The Unexpected again
 

of the 24 Handicappers listed in saturdays DRF who made selections for the Preakness only 3 even mentioned Shackelford in their top 4 selections, only 2 had the exacta in their top 4 and congrats to the one handicapper Chuck Dybdal who had the tri in top 4. This is shown not to disparage any of the cappers but just shows as we all know what a wide open almost unhandicapable at times these classics can be. Amazing how Shackelford gave in to slower fractions at CD and with a quicker early pace at PIM holds on gamely as the other 2 pace pressers finish last and next to last. I love horse racing but I see the Belmont as the least watched and least attended in years unfortunately