Mr. Commons
 

Hey, I know he lacks experience and he is stuck on the outside, but does anyone like this horse? I've been high on this horse since his Maiden score and I figure, there aren't any world beaters here and he will be at least 20-1. Why not? I think he has a good chance to improve. Any opinions would be appreciated.

Where is his good dirt race?

The Santa Anita Derby is turning out to be quite the negative key race. Then again, most of them are this year.

I think the whole premise that John Sherrifs never ships a horse unless he truly believes he can win is a way overblown. Who knows what his motivation is, but he doesn't look like he belongs to me.

Same As Midnite Interlude. Just because Baffert has had past Preakness success means nothing. Where else is Midnite Interlude going to run? There's not a lot of options out west for a 3-year old colt this time of year.
He clearly loves the Preakness and wants a runner in the race. I didn't like him in the Derby, and certainly won't be backing him in the Preakness.

Where was Animal Kingdom's key dirt race before the derby?

Yeah, the Santa Anita derby was very weak. I just feel that at a price, for me, why not take a chance on this horse. I don't know who my other logical contender is, but IMO I feel that this is a terrible 3 yr old crop, aside from maybe AK and why not take a new shooter. All these other horses have been beat by horses that alot of people don't like.


Again, that's just my opinion. I will probably play Animal Kingdom also.

Not trying to sway you either way, but you are talking about 2 different situations.

Understood, I'm just saying for longshot value, he is my play over others. I expected to receive alot of negative feedback on him, that's why he's 20-1 on the morning line. I actually hope he will go up higher.

Five horses not to have run in the Derby have won the Preakness since 1980. I don't expect that we'll see a sixth this Saturday.

Yeah, I read that too, but I also think that the triple crown 3 yr olds are getting worse and worse.

Apples and oranges.

Is 20-1 really value on Mr. Commons?

Ah...you guys have Rockhardtenfan, I have slowdirt. See you at the windows boys.

Maybe you could explain what you like about him. So far you"heard he was working good" and his trainer is John Shirreffs.

What is drawing you to him?

To me, 'the field sucks' alone isn't enough reason to just bet on anybody. I don't see what there is to like about Mr. Commons.

I actually am off of him on top although will include him underneath. I was digging at Slowdirt a little because his post allows me to eliminate all of the derby starters for win honors.

That post makes his case pretty tough for the win.

I will play Dance City or sway away on top or may even Dutch them depending on price. Sway away is second time blinkers, upgrade on jockey and ran a nice ark derby. I love second time blinkers. Dance city was the only speed in that ark derby that lasted in his only stake try and was bothered in the stretch. He would need to improve just a little and he wins. Both horses are rested and there is room to improve at a price.

If you re-read my post, smarty pants, you'd see that I was saying exactly the opposite.

;)

There goes my bets. Thanks.

He's currently 50/1. I think you'll be getting your price if you want it.