Derby Trail Forums - 4/21: Keeneland (5th-9th)

Anticipation seems to be building for the potential uber-carryover scenario Saturday at Gulfstream, where the Rainbow 6 pot will likely swell towards $2,000,000 if un-hit Thursday and Friday. At that point, it's anyone's guess what multiple of the pool will be augmented, but a 'must disperse' jackpot of at least $5 million would appear certain. The sequence, races 7-12 drawn Wednesday, will challenge anyone hoping for easy picking, given 5 events with 12 runners and one with 10 for nearly 2,500,000 multiples. Mike Welsch Friday on ATR to help decipher the difficult skein.

Meanwhile, speaking of difficult, Keeneland continues to be very hard to negotiate, though as we saw Saturday with the tote success in the Blue Grass, you get paid when you have an opinion that works out. Thursday's P5 races are deep and interesting, with an excellent feature in the Appalachian that will only be slightly diminished by likely scratches of Diva Ash and Smart Sting. It's a "Best Of" At the Races today as I slip in a vacation day with Tina before wrapping up from the Florida studio back live tomorrow!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 My Perfect Light 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #10 Lemon Drop On Top 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Hoopskirt 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Palisades Dawn 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $8.10
$1 Trifecta (3-8-5) Paid $88.00
$1 Superfecta (3-8-5-10) Paid $291.00

6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This has 'problem' written all over it..

Most Likely: #2 Santo Gato 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 D'marin 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Duke of Del Rey 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Farmer's Club 6-1 5th

7th: ALW/N2L, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Salty Strike 2-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Cedar Grove 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Sam's Bliss 5-1 WON ($18.80)
Super Add: #3 Eye Opener 10-1 10th

8th: 23rd Appalachian (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Very nice group. Note that Dale Romans told ATR listeners he expects to SCR Diva Ash, and word is that Roger Attfield will SCR Smart Sting. Be sure to check for KEE Scratches/Changes as both are players should they happen to stay in..

Best Value: #6 New Normal 8-1 -
Next Best: #4 Winter Memories 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Parting Words 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Harlan's Ruby 12-1 -

9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Merry Miner 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #7 Arboria 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Inlovewithlove 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Quick Return 6-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #3 SCR

$1 Exacta (6-7) Paid 7.90
$1 Trifecta (6-7-4) Paid $19.60
$1 Superfecta (6-7-4-2) Paid $41.90

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 3-5-8-10
6: 2-4-5-6
7: 4
8: 4-6-11
9: 6-7

4x4x1x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 5 (3,11/6/1/3,4,5,9,10/3,5,6,8) Paid $3.20 (4OF5)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-6
7: 1-2-4
8: 1-4-6-7-11-12
9: 6-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/1/3,4,5,9,10/3,5,6,8) Paid $103.90

Good luck!
Steve