4/14: Keeneland (5th-9th)
 

'Big balloons' wafted all around Keeneland Wednesday, and I flirted with various multi hits that ultimately came up short. The P5 paid an outrageous $42,264 to one winner, while consos paid $265. The P4 was a $23.7k bonanza, while the 5-7, 6-8 and 7-9 P3's brought back $233, $1,500 and $4,127! The biggest frustration came from using $46.40 8th race winner Joshua Reynolds on the plays, but I missed Sassy's Dream in the 6th and my top trio in the nightcap ran 2nd, 3rd and 4th to $16.80 Ratatat. But like Gulfstream earlier this winter, you have to keep pitching under these full field conditions. The best opinion of the day came in the 5th when P5 single Spooky Kitten keyed exotics of $44.50 (EXA), $205.90 (TRI) and $1,234 (SPR). Hope you did well... Another tough sequence today which includes the G1 Vinery Madison.


KEENELAND


POSt-SCRATCHES


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P5. P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Shy Temper 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Pray for Grace 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Even Forest 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Keyana Washington 4-1 3rd


6th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

4-5 is too short a price to discover that Dubai's Connection doesn't care for the surface..

Best Value: #4 Mud Creek 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Tribecky 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Dubai's Connection 4-5 3rd
Super Add: #8 Monkey's Moonbeam 10-1 5th


7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Boisterous 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1a Strong Commitment 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Kindergarden Kid 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lighthouse Sound 5-2 4th


8th: 10th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

This is a nicely-matched field, and as big an Evening Jewel fan as I am, it's hard to embrace her too enthusiastically at what will be a very low price..#7 Amen Hallelujah appears to be running after all; Not a SCR through 12:30 late change announcement..

Best Value: #1 Kitty in a Tizzy 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Amen Hallelujah 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Evening Jewel 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Tremendemente Loca 20-1 9th


9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Very nice race and it comes with an $8k Hi-5 Carryover..

Best Value: #5 Maid of Heaven 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 High On Kitten 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Sex Appeal 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Littlegreatone 8-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Refugio 6-1 10th


<$75 P5 Play:

5: 3-4-6-8
6: 2-4-8-10
7: 7
8: 1-7-8
9: 5-7-11

4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-8-10
7: 1-7
8: 1-7-8
9: 4-5-7-8-9-11

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Any thoughts on the third race? I know it is short field just curious what people think of that? Anyone stand out?

Good luck today Steve!!

Scratches & Changes



Thursday, April 14, 2011



Race Description
1 1st Race
#5--Dos Gardenias--SCRATCH

2nd Race
#1A--In the Midnight--SCRATCH
#2--Father's Mig--Jockey change to Christian Pilares
#3C--Gentlemans Code--SCRATCH
#4--Event Center--SCRATCH

3rd Race -- NO CHANGES

4th Race
#1A--Rio Bonita--SCRATCH

5th Race -- NO CHANGES

6th Race
#5--Wedding Diamond--SCRATCH
#12--Rollin Jai Jai--SCRATCH

7th Race
#1--Whatthecatdrugin--SCRATCH

8th Race -- Vinery Madison (G1) -- NO CHANGES

9th Race
#7--High On Kitten--Blinkers OFF
#13AE--Bizzy Caroline--SCRATCH
#14AE--Lancet--SCRATCH


Track Conditions, Maintenance & Weather
Thursday, April 14, 2011 8:00 AM
Polytrack is fast.
Turf course is firm.
The Gallop Master will be used after training, once with the tines set at 4 inches and again with the tines set at 3.5 inches. It will be used again after races 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9 at 3.5 inches.

The cultivator will be run once after training at 4.5 inches.

The grass height is 5.5 inches and the rail is up 15 feet from the inside rail.

I do not see Amen Hallelujah listed as scratched yet. The TVG website still has her listed as running. This is a little confusing.

While Amen Hallelujah still will most likely be scratched by the stewards before betting opens at Keeneland Race Course today, the 2-to-1 morning-line favorite for the Madison Stakes (G1) was not listed in the early scratches.

IEAH Stables President Michael Iavarone confirmed that the connections have launched legal efforts to allow Amen Hallelujah to race on Thursday, as well as Court Vision in the Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes (G1) on Friday.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...scratches.aspx

Late SCR's up and Amen Hallelujah is NOT listed as out..

Huh.. Being against the 4-5 Dubai's Connection was the right move, but it doesn't help if you can't come up with the top pair!