How small will the Timely Writer field be?
 

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole’s first choice for Uncle Mo’s 3-year-old debut is Saturday’s $100,000 Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park. The question is can the track’s racing secretary, Dan Bork, find enough 3-year-olds willing to take on the champ to make the race go.

Uncle Mo completed the last of his six workouts in preparation for his 3-year-old debut Sunday at Palm Meadows, breezing an easy half-mile in 48.87 seconds under jockey John Velazquez.

“Having the Eclipse Award winner and Kentucky Derby favorite run here is a bonus for our fans, so we’re willing to let this race go with a very short field if we have to,” said Gulfstream Park vice president of racing Tim Ritvo.

http://www.drf.com/news/uncle-mo-won...eam-2011-debut

Four entrants and then a scratch is my bet.

Walkover.
No Betting.

Free Entry was beaten 18.5 lengths by Uncle Mo in a debut race for both horses - I'm Steppin' It Up was beaten 14.5 lengths by UM in the Champagne.

Schoolyard Cat is a New York bred who won a 35K maiden claiming race on turf two starts back - and isn't much on dirt.

And to get both I'm Steppin' It Up and Free Entry to actually run would be very optimisitc.

Dialed In got a lot out of his race on Saturday in terms of maintaining fitness and setting him up for the Florida Derby, and I understand that a race is typically better than any workout. But will Uncle Mo run much faster on Saturday than he would in a one mile workout by himself or with a workmate?

This race is a lock to go by the way.

The purse structure is as follows ...

50% to winner, 25% to second, 15% to third, 5% to 4th, 3% to 5th, and 2% to 6th.

There are a few maidens and a few cheap turf claiming horses nominated who would love 15K for 3rd money - with no loss of conditions... and might not even mind 5K for 4th money.

It will probably be Uncle Mo - 3 or 4 others - and, if needed, a Pletcher lamb that probably scratches.

Yes.

It's a dumb question, but you know what I'm saying, right? We're less than two months from the Derby, and this horse hasn't even started... and he's been dormant at the barn since Thanksgiving.

On facebook Repole's neice is reporting that Uncle Mike and Uncle Todd say Mo is doing just peachy? I believe her..lol

Interesting how they changed the usual 60/20/10 percentages for the first three finishers. The extra $5K to the second and third-place finishers should help them find a few opponents for the other reasons that you stated.

You also never know what motivates an owner. There are a few moderate homebreds nominated like solid claimer Duke of Doom who are still owned by the breeder.

If the current owner/breeder still owns the very young mother of DoD (DoD was her first foal) - I'm sure they'd be over the moon to get 15K for 3rd, not lose any conditions, and get black type for the first foal of a young broodmare they own.

If he's healthy - he'll run very fast and do it under wraps late.

I suppose no one is probably going to want to be the one who goes with him early - or makes first move at him - so the pace could wind up 'workout' like slow... and to some extent you'd be right.

Will there be exacta wagering, and what will be winning exacta pay?

Not sure.

If - by some miracle - there is show wagering - Freddy should find the 2nd best horse and empty his pockets on that one to show.

Back on topic, is anyone willing to set the total on number of starters (not entrants) at 3.5 and take my under play?

I'll take your action on your 'Under 3.5' I guess. My prediction is that 4 total starters go.

What do you want this for - $20? $50? An autographed sock?

I'll put up a hi-five in public from me to you, and you put up something pornographic from your collection. Deal?

The exacta will pay a lot if Mo isn't in it.

Ok, deal.

Gulfstream Park can dangle some races in the next condition book in front of reluctant trainers with 3yo slugs.