Derby Trail Forums - 1/30: Aqueduct ($24k C/O); Gulfstream (5th-11th)

Hard to imagine being disappointed after an Aqueduct afternoon that produced a $66 winner tripping P3's worth $1,635 and $1,130, but my failure to include Bruce Levine's Sudden Impulse in the nightcap cost everyone a shot at the $9,700 quad payoff. Bad races can provoke bad decisions, and I made one here. The Sharp Humor miss appeared crippled, having been gone since October, and returning off a spotty worktab of 4 drills with the most recent 3 weeks ago. I chose to include another equally bad maiden instead, but a horse from Levine like Sudden Impulse has to be on the ticket in lieu of an Affable Athena or Raffie's Bebe whom I weighed with the winner.

The good news is that it appears many people capitalized on $66 Persian Ruler in one way or another who combined with $28.80 Mr. Hadif for the big multi-race payoffs. The rest of the afternoon was spotty, and frankly, it was difficult to be focused or enthused after blowing the opportunity at Aqueduct. Hope everyone did well. Carryover at the Big A off the 2 hard to find winners in the 6th and 7th, and a pair of big graded stakes for sophs at GP.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$24k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Taconic Knight 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Ground Force 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1a Galaxy Rush 3-1 WON ($6.60)

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Valuable Lady 5-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Feldberg 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Chaka Bwana 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1e Odintz entry 12-1 3rd/8th

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Katskill Bay 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Heavenly Blaze 20-1 WON ($23.80)
Next Best: #2 City Train 12-1 8th
Super Add: #7 System Restore 8-1 4th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult race given that Doast feels like a question mark and Won Great Classic simply fails to win over and over..

Best Value: #10 African Knight 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Won Great Classic 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Doast 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Fiery Footwork 12-1 3rd

8th: OC/C, 4+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Dixie Notion 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Hewitts 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Speight of Hand 4-1 6th

9th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #6 Servi Energia 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Shake Baby Shake 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Soldierette 7-2 WON ($8.70)
Super Add: #1 Love Fever 10-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-9
5: 2-3
6: 4
7: 5-9-10
8: 1-5-6
9: 6-9

2x2x1x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5
7: 4-5-9-10
8: 1-5-6
9: 6-9-11

2x4x3x3 = $72

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Empire Maker colt #8 Achaemenes from Pletcher-Starlight is a half to Unrivaled Belle..

Most Likely: #8 Achaemenes 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Gator Champ 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Bowman's Causeway 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Redwood Falls 4-1 3rd

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 7.5f-Turf/No rail (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Praviana 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #2 Gob Smacked 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Brandywine View 6-1 12th
Super Add: #1 Invisible Vision 20-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $60.90
$1 Trifecta (4-1-2) Paid $186.20

7th: OC/N$Y, F&M-4+, 7.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 The Isabella Angel 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Joanie's Catch 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Dubai Dancer 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Bronx City Girl 6-1 6th

8th: 31st Forward Gal (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Dancinginherdreams had better be as special as some seem to be making out, because this is a much more treacherous spot than it looks, and John Ward hardly inspires confidence at short prices these days. Alexandra Rylie, the big Cash is King (Team Afleet Alex) filly that debuted like a good thing Travers Day at Saratoga, could be loose on the lead here if Bravo takes back at all with the DeVito returnee. Threat to take them on a merry chase at a big number..

Best Value: #7 Alexandra Rylee 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 R Heat Lightening 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Dancinginherdreams 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Third Chance 5-1 5th

9th: ALW/NSY, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Lose None 6-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #12 She's a Ketch 7-2 8th
Best Value: #4 Brampton 6-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Twentyoneand two 5-1 6th

10th: 22nd Holy Bull (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

With $400k on the line, winner gets a free Derby pass and runner up a serious infusion towards same. Curiously, this group is hard to get a grasp on, seeming to lack distinction with most particpants showing resumes in search of a defining performance. As with the Forward Gal, could see a scenario where a free and easy leader gets brave in the late stages, and Black N Beauty/Printing Press might reprise Saturday's Tackleberry/Duke of Mischief merry go round in the SunMill Classic. Admittedly not sure what to expect here, and no result will surprise me..

Most Likely: #4 Black N Beauty 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Printing Press 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Dialed In 6-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #1 Gourmet Dinner 3-1 3rd

11th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (Super)

Best Value: #5 It's Never to Late 8-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #6 Duffy's Tavern 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Unbridled Heat 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dixie Band 6-1 6th

$1 Pick 3 (5/9/5) Paid $259.90

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 4-6-7
9: 5-12
10: 1-3-4-6-7-9
11: 5-6

2x3x2x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-6-7
9: 4-5-10-12
10: 1-3-4-6-7-9
11: 5-6

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve